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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread


Rtd208
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4 hours ago, jwilson said:

Little hope for Flyers or Sixers, so it's all up to the Eagles now.

I do think the Phillies could have won that series were it not for a mismanaged Game 4, although two years in a row of dead bats is concerning.

Flyers have a upside (starting fresh), Sixers don't w/the Harden crap.

78F...thinking about A/C on low till dusk/early evening.

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Whelp - didn't frost here Tuesday morning although I did have a low of 39.  Ended up with a high of 65 that day.  The Wed. split was 44/72 and today the warming trend continued with a 48 low and much warmer high of 78.  As soon as the sun set, the cooling commenced however, and it's currently 63 with dp 56.  Will see if any records fall this weekend.

And I won't even get into the Phillies.  Bad Closers are toxic and I expect that this sentiment probably rippled through the team as there were a couple games that would have been won if runs hadn't been given up in the late innings.

Anyway... Go IGGLES.  Kelly Green FTW. :lol:

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Today may very well be our warmest day until next spring. Most spots will see high temperatures well into the 70's. However, it will not be close to the record high for today which is 84 degrees set way back in 1919. A cold front crosses the area tonight and it will feel much cooler by later tonight but with low temps still almost 10 degrees above normal at near 50 degrees. Tomorrow will be a much different day with showers around a cool east wind and temps remaining nearly steady in the mid-50's across most of the county. Shower chances continue through Monday. Even chillier air moves in by Monday night with highs through Thursday remaining in the 40's during the day. It looks likely the growing season will end across Chester County by as early as Wednesday morning but more likely by Thursday morning with lows in the upper 20's. Some lower spots in the County have already seen freezing temps this fall but this week will see a widespread freeze.
Records for today: High 84 (1919) / Low 17 (1936) / Rain 1.60" (1902)
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On 10/26/2023 at 9:15 AM, Mikeymac5306 said:

As long as the Ealges do good this is a minor incnvenience to many.  Look at last year. 

For those with the Eagles as their #1 interest but with my family it's always been Phillies 1 and Eagles 2....love Sunday football!! Just not enough games compared to the nearly daily fix of baseball for me!!

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With any chance of 90 degree days behind us - below is an updated analysis of 90+ days over the last 20 years comparing the PHL Airport vs. the NWS COOP sites in Chester County. Here in East Nantmeal we finished with no 90+ days for the 4th time in the last 20 years. This was true for both of my ground based stations...although my rooftop station (poorly sited) did record 6 such days. Of note all locations experienced less 90+ days during the last 10 years than the previous 10. Of course the PHL Airport continues to average more with their heat island problems.

image.png.e78c238775a14ba404b9eec4e8cee480.png

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Some light rain across the county this morning...a bit drier but still cloudy this PM with more rain arriving late tonight. Rainfall amounts should be light and generally less than 0.25" in most spots. It will be over 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with high temps closer to normal in the upper 50's. Of note yesterday was the last day with an average high temperature of 60 degrees....the next time we average above 60 will be April 12th.
Records for today 79 (1946) / Low 23 (1976) / Rain 4.04" (2012)
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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2 GFS runs in a row with accumulating snow for SE PA before Nov 11 and this sub is crickets. Sheesh. :pimp:

Something something, Lucy, football. ;)  The GFS has been non-stop spinning up storms in the long range, literally doing that all summer and into the fall.

My Friday split was 73/54 and yesterday I just touched 80 after a low of 59.

My registered low earler this morning was 57 and after a few non-measurable sprinkles that wet the car and walk, my current temp has now dropped below that to 56, where my "high" (so far) was just after midnight at 66. Dewpoint is currently 51 with overcast skies.

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

I’ll pass. Other than November 1995, years with accumulating snow before Thanksgiving tend to be ratters.

Although there were plenty of recurving tropical storms in the Atlantic this year like 1995, so there’s that :weenie:

C'mon now, you gotta take what you gotta take. We had zip last year! I'll take pennie and nickel events, anything. Screw past history...I'll take my chances.

53F/Rainy/misty

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The cold front that slipped through over the weekend is trying to move back north this morning which has caused some light rain. Since yesterday we have received 0.22" of rain. There may be quite the spread in temperatures early this afternoon as temps may be near 60 across NW Chester County and near 70 across southern portions of the county. High temps should occur around 2pm. The cold front will slice though the county from NW to SE during the 2pm hour with temps falling quickly through the 50's and reaching the 40's by 7pm across much of the county. Much colder weather with temps remaining in the 40's for highs for Tuesday through Thursday. We have a slight chance of some wet snow mixed with rain toward Wednesday morning. Widespread freezing temperatures are likely both Thursday and Friday morning before temps rise to near normal levels by next weekend.
Records for today: High 82 (1946) / Low 21 (1928) / Rain 1.48" (1935)
image.png.0dab7f155527d8afd0cfad12048029eb.png
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13 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

November 1989!

Exactly, how did that winter work out?

It doesn't really matter, it's probably just the GFS doing GFS things. And as others have said, it's such a small sample size (Oct/Nov snows preceding ratter winters) may simply be "noise".

I did like the look of last night's Euro -- looks like a frontal passage changing to wet flakes. That's very November 1995-ish. And I am intrigued by Chuck's call for a neutral NOA. On the surface, that doesn't sound promising. But one possible interpretation is the NOA diddy-bopping back and forth between positive & negative. And our best storm chances occur during phase changes. Whether those storms are wet or white, tbd.

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Ended up with nickel and dime showers yesterday and this morning, with 0.13" yesterday and 0.07" so far this morning, for a 2-day event total of 0.20" so far.   My "low" was 53 just after 2 pm yesterday and confirmed the high for yesterday being just after midnight of 66.

This morning's low so far has been 51 and within the past hour or so, I have been socked in with some low stratus, so "something" is on the move. 

Currently overcast and misty and 56 with dp 55.

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Welp, it's kinda chilly 56F/overcast, junk and stuff falling from the trees, grass growing has slowed down w/a impending freeze on the way sometime this week. Birds squeaked a win w/the Boys coming up.  All is good, sounds like traditional Fall. Maybe some warm (spiked) apple cider and pumpkin pie to top it off...

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