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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread


Rtd208
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Zombie Ophelia ended up misting 0.02" of rain IMBY around 3 am this morning.  That brought the 3-day event total to 0.43", with a final monthly total for September of 6.96" (assuming no more drifts this way).

That was somewhat higher than last September's (2022) 6.11" total but fall less than September 2021's 8.57".  It was twice as much as September 2020's 3.04" however (the year I got this particular station).

Ended up hitting a high of 69 once the sun came out and stayed out, after a low of 58. It's currently 66 with dp 62.
 

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Well we finished September at near to below normal temperatures at all Chester County locations with the exception of the Glenmoore coop station - which recorded one of their warmest Septembers on record.
Of the 5 COOP locations only Glenmoore finished well above normal with an average temperature of 68.4 which is +1.6 degrees above the 30 year average for the month. This was also the 19th warmest September at Glenmoore across 67 years of data. Both KPTW Pottstown 65.5 degrees finished at -0.8 below normal and Phoenixville 66.6 degrees (0.7) finished with below normal temperatures good for 65th chilliest at Phoenixville with 131 years of data and 10th chilliest at KPTW with 25 years of records. Both KMQS Coatesville 67.1 +0.3 and here in East Nantmeal 65.4 +0.02 finished with slightly above normal temps with KMQS recording their 8th warmest September with 16 years of records and EN recording their 62nd warmest September with 130 years of records.
The week ahead looks great with well above temps....we could in fact reach 80 degrees across some lower spots of the county for the last time this year on Wednesday. Much cooler weather returns by next weekend.
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39 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:
Well we finished September at near to below normal temperatures at all Chester County locations with the exception of the Glenmoore coop station - which recorded one of their warmest Septembers on record.
Of the 5 COOP locations only Glenmoore finished well above normal with an average temperature of 68.4 which is +1.6 degrees above the 30 year average for the month. This was also the 19th warmest September at Glenmoore across 67 years of data. Both KPTW Pottstown 65.5 degrees finished at -0.8 below normal and Phoenixville 66.6 degrees (0.7) finished with below normal temperatures good for 65th chilliest at Phoenixville with 131 years of data and 10th chilliest at KPTW with 25 years of records. Both KMQS Coatesville 67.1 +0.3 and here in East Nantmeal 65.4 +0.02 finished with slightly above normal temps with KMQS recording their 8th warmest September with 16 years of records and EN recording their 62nd warmest September with 130 years of records.
The week ahead looks great with well above temps....we could in fact reach 80 degrees across some lower spots of the county for the last time this year on Wednesday. Much cooler weather returns by next weekend.

Looks like mother nature is giving the Phils one last blast of summer for their 1st round this week w/highs reaching 80+. Then a abrupt end starting Saturday w/low 60s and maybe 50s highs Monday...

73F/DP 59F/ Sunny

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Some lower spots across the county reached the low 50's this morning - this is still a few degrees above normal as our average low temperatures during October fall from the upper 40's to start the month to near 40 by Halloween. Of note last October we only recorded 1 day of 70 degrees or above....this week we will see every day of the work week well into the 70's with even 80 degrees possible both Tuesday and Wednesday especially in the low spots of the area. Next rain chances are not till Friday night with the cold frontal passage that will send out temps to well below normal by next weekend.
Records for today: High 88 (2019) / Low 28 (1899) / Rain 3.18" (1929)
image.png.53119ec9abae48c008c5ee1bd27e247b.png
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12 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

First of October I hit 77 for a high after a 58 low and today hit 79 after bottoming out at 61.

Looks like a little "Indian Summer" coming this week.

Currently 70 with a dp that has crept up to 65 and is noticeable. Critters going outside.

I think we're calling it Indigenous Peoples Post Equinox Warm Episode. :lol:

Actually, don't we need a frost first for an "official" Indian Summer?

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Happy Red October to those who celebrate! The Phillies should have perfect unseasonably warm weather. Weather wise we are very similar to exactly 16 years ago today back in 2007 when the Phillies played their 1st post season game since 1993. For those 2 games at home high temps in Philly were in the 80's. Here in East Nantmeal we recorded highs of 78.6 and 79.6 on the 3rd and 4th. Hopefully the results are different as the Phillies were swept in 3 games by the Rockies.
Our Indian Summer weather should continue through the week before a sharp turn to well below normal by the weekend. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday may not escape the mid-50's.
Records for today: High 91 (1919) / Low 26 (1899) / Rain 1.21" (1985) GO PHILLIES!
image.png.815ac0096e432611142227d1ab3fa1ed.png
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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

I think we're calling it Indigenous Peoples Post Equinox Warm Episode. :lol:

Actually, don't we need a frost first for an "official" Indian Summer?

We had this conversation last week, lol. I think it's something like temps in the 70s or higher for a few days, after the 1st frost but before the 1st snow. But it is certainly Indian Summer "ish". 

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23 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I think we're calling it Indigenous Peoples Post Equinox Warm Episode. :lol:

Actually, don't we need a frost first for an "official" Indian Summer?

LOL  I don't know about the "frost" part... We (at least in the NW part of the city) don't usually get the first potential frost until maybe mid-late Oct (meaning a day or so with lows in the mid-upper 30s).

Heck, the way the erratic track of TS Philippe keeps changing means we could get a full on blizzard out of it eventually. :lol:   It wasn't supposed to get anywhere near the CONUS.

After a low of 57 yesterday, I made it up to 80 as a high.  It's currently partly sunny and 64 with dp 64.

floop-gfs-6z-2023100406.prateptype_cat-imp.conus-10042023.gif

090304_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind1.png

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Well I bottomed out at 60 yesterday and "only" got up to 82 here as a high yesterday too, probably because of various and sundry clouds.  Got good radiational cooling overnight and had a low of 55 ealy this morning, but am quickly off to the races now where I'm currently partly sunny and 71, with dp 64.

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We have had a very warm start here to October with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70's to low 80's across the County. Today and the next couple of days will continue that trend. However, we will see a sharp turn to much cooler than normal temperatures by the weekend. We may see temps across the higher spots of Chester County remaining in the low 50's on Sunday. We should see below normal autumnal temps continuing for most of next week. We will see rain chances ramping up by Friday evening continuing through Saturday AM.
Go Phillies!
Records for today: High 94 (1941) / Low 28 (1965) / Rain 2.04" (1902)
image.png.0056ada762633e4a3a9ee1083008b252.png
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These first 5 days of October have been the 21st warmest start to the month since 1894. See top 20 below. However, a sharp change to below normal begins tomorrow. In fact today looks to be the last day that reaches 70 degrees for at least a couple weeks and possibly until next spring, Temps by Sunday and Monday will remain in the unseasonably chilly 50's by day and low 40's at night.
Some showers can be around today with steadier rain overnight tonight with the cold frontal passage.
Records for today: High 94 (1900) / Low 28 (1965) / Rain 2.00" (1932)
First 5 days of October
Rank Year Avg. Temp
1 1898 73.1
2 1941 73.1
3 1954 71.9
4 1959 70.3
5 2002 70.2
6 1951 70
7 1927 69.3
8 1900 69
9 1926 68.8
10 1986 68.6
11 2013 68.31
12 1922 68.2
13 1919 67.4
14 1931 67.1
15 2018 66.96
16 1905 66.6
17 1910 66.6
18 2007 66.6
19 1932 66.1
20 1991 66.1
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On 9/27/2023 at 9:38 AM, Albedoman said:

Now, comes campfire time. With the rain gone after Friday, the grass growing like gangbusters, it's back to enjoying fall weather and garden activities in upcoming next few weeks.  LR models indicate a prolong mild dry period with highs in the low to mid 80's too. With the warmer weather, the leaves should stay on the trees longer too.  Looks like the majority leaf raking will not happen until after Halloween this year unless we get a cold/windy  shot near the end of the month. 

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From uncle w based on those warm early Octobers....

some great years on that list...

1898...big snows end of November...historic snow and cold in February...weak neg year...

1959...almost -6SD AO in November...White Christmas storm...March Blizzard...neutral...

2002...Christmas day snowstorm...cold and snowy February...el nino...

2013...cold, snowy winter...weak neg...

1922...cold snowy winter...la nina...

1919...cold snowy winter...huge snow and ice storm in February...weak pos year...

1932...snowstorms in December and February...weak pos year.....

other years...el nino...snowfall...

1941...11.3"...cold Jan/Feb...inland late March and April snows...

1951...20"...good March...

1986...23"...better south of the city...

2018...21"...Nov snowstorm...good March...

1905...20"...good March...

1991...13"...good March...

these el nino winters with a good March were not great winters...except for 86 most of the action came late in the season...

 

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