2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Only way to look at is that we don't have alot of opportunities even in great winters because we are in the south. 09-10 only got two events, which I was wanting 4-5 lol

Where do you live ? We had alot of events here in 09-10. 

[Itryatgolf70]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Where do you live ? We had alot of events here in 09-10. 

I lived in Southaven ms back then but now I'm in jackson tn. Two weeks back to back with events and that was it

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS and CMC show a transition to at the very least cold fronts pressing eastward...and that means some rain.  MRX mentioned that modeling has been overestimating qpf amounts in drought stricken areas.  So, keep that in mind as well.

09-10 was a banner winter.  Barely got home one evening in December as we got hammered during rush hour.  Took some folks 12 hours to make a 30min commute.   It definitely depends on where you are located....

[Daniel Boone]

57 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I lived in Southaven ms back then but now I'm in jackson tn. Two weeks back to back with events and that was it

Yeah, unfortunately you guys in the western forum area missed out on much of it. 

    Btw, I've been in Jackson. My Sister used to live in Humboldt. Nice area. Reelfoot not far from there. 

[John1122]

I picked up .48 inches of rain and it was still misting enough to use windshield wipers as I headed to Knoxville. There's a lot of nice color still on the trees down here. My trees are 90 percent bare. The mist dried up around the Clinch River bridge in Anderson County. 

[BuCoVaWx]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS and CMC show a transition to at the very least cold fronts pressing eastward...and that means some rain.  MRX mentioned that modeling has been overestimating qpf amounts in drought stricken areas.  So, keep that in mind as well.

09-10 was a banner winter.  Barely got home one evening in December as we got hammered during rush hour.  Took some folks 12 hours to make a 30min commute.   It definitely depends on where you are located....

The December 18-19 2009 storm was one of my all time favorites. Of course the 3 week period of no power or water wasn't very fun. I was a child during 93 and 96 blizzards, so it was cool to experience 09 as an adult. I would love for my children to experience a storm like that. It was magical to me as a child.

[John1122]

Happy hour indeed on the 18z. Rain systems and....I'm sure you all saw it.

[Daniel Boone]

Weeklies basically warm east/ cold west . Kicked can last couple weeks. They've not been that good lately, so probably wrong, at least as far as a week or so. 

       It may be those super warm SST'S off Japan that's throwing things off kilter. 

[John1122]

Not as wild as the ride was on 18z but pretty close at 0z. 

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

Not as wild as the ride was on 18z but pretty close at 0z. 

Yeah, the EPS has it at 500.

[Carvers Gap]

Big ridge/AN heights over Alaska almost universally in the LR.  Varying downstream consequences here...the 12z EPS is a major cold signal.  Alas it is shoulder season, so who knows!

[Itryatgolf70]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Big ridge/AN heights over Alaska almost universally in the LR.  Varying downstream consequences here...the 12z EPS is a major cold signal.  Alas it is shoulder season, so who know!

They were talking about it in the New England section earlier on 12zgefs and eps

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

They were talking about it in the New England section earlier on 12zgefs and eps

I would imagine most forums have it on their radar.  I may go give it a read.  Has an 09-10 look to it.  But who knows if shoulder season modeling is correct.  Models had lots oft troughing over the EC a few weeks ago in the LR...turned out to be warm and dry in actuality.  Not sure I buy the early start, but would gladly enjoy every bit of it.  It isn't without precedent.   Again, the dry Sept/Oct analogs(the Nino years) had cold Decembers.  But really at this range, a lot is on the table.

[Carvers Gap]

To clarify mentioning a lot is on the table.....that means anything from mild weather to cold. LR modeling is all over the place at times, and usually much more so at this time of year, even ensembles.  This fall has been especially tough as modeling (and MRX mentioned this recently) has been consistently over-estimating rainfall in regions with drought.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Both the EPS and GEFS also put us under the right entrance region of a jet, which would be nice for the drought if it pans out.

GEFS:

 

EPS:

 

[John1122]

Hoping the GFS itself is wrong, as it's the driest by a decent margin, over the next 10 days.

[Itryatgolf70]

16 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Hoping the GFS itself is wrong, as it's the driest by a decent margin, over the next 10 days.

We could use the rain in my area also as it's been pretty dry around here

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC sends some in the forum areas into the mid-teens.  Both the 12z GFS and CMC to varying degrees(varying timing) are starting to sense that Alaskan ridge.  That would be a freaking cold Turkey Trot to steal a line from the MA...but for real!!

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS is not warm, and the run to run comparison over the SE is colder than 6z.  During the years where I had to live in "cold weather exile" in central Florida for a couple of years during the early 80s, seems like there was a cold shot in Orlando about that time.  Florida is a great place, but I like winter.  But one of those odd memories from childhood makes me think I was having to wear a heavy coat in Florida around Thanksgiving.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEFS is not warm, and the run to run comparison over the SE is colder than 6z.  During the years where I had to live in "cold weather exile" in central Florida for a couple of years during the early 80s, seems like there was a cold shot in Orlando about that time.  Florida is a great place, but I like winter.  But one of those odd memories from childhood makes me think I was having to wear a heavy coat in Florida around Thanksgiving.

If there is enough -pna, should allow for overrunning for some but models won't pick it up until later 

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS follows the Canadian for Thanksgiving.

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies this evening look really good as well - nice progression.  @John1122 that cold shot during November next week is a good sign I think in regards to winter.  Really, at this point I am trying to temper my enthusiasm.  Let's see if modeling holds serve during the next couple of days.  It would not surprise me to see us tracking at some point.

[Carvers Gap]

Almost seems like a false start to winter (7-10 days cold) next week, followed by a warm-up, and then Jeff's Nino pattern later in December.  I could be badly wrong, but this is about as bullish as I can be about LR/seasonal modeling.  Hopefully this isn't the "we've seen the last of summer" post I had back Augus...only to have summer end last week LOL

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC is flirting with single digits late in its run...and well, the 12z GFS is interesting.

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies (control and mean) continue to depict a robust Nino pattern for the second week of December.  Transitions occurs prior.  6" snow mean for NE TN and SW VA.  Control has snow into New Orleans.

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies (control and mean) continue to depict a robust Nino pattern for the second week of December.  Transitions occurs prior.  6" snow mean for NE TN and SW VA.  Control has snow into New Orleans.

Yeah, CFS Weeklies looking good as well. -EPO Ftw. Hopefully these depictions come to fruition more times than not and not the tucking under sw trough and eastern ridging . Would setup a great Winter Pattern. 

[Carvers Gap]

We've seen this head fake once already this year (trough in the East and ridge in the West).  What we are seeing on modeling could also be a false start for winter which is highly common for Nino winters.  BUT......ensemlbes (both weeklies and global ensembles) are fairly consistent in showing decently cold pattern during early December.  My guess would be that it would ease up, and maybe we are just tracking a 5-7 day cold shot...but modeling is currently showing a longer duration cold event.  

[Carvers Gap]

To further clarify, the Thanksgiving cold shot looks like a reality.  Then there is a brief warm-up.  The duration of that warm-up, and ensuing cold is what I am interested in.  The 500mb pattern after that brief warm-up looks formidable.  It might be a head fake as shoulder season modeling is infamous for bad takes in the LR.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

To further clarify, the Thanksgiving cold shot looks like a reality.  Then there is a brief warm-up.  The duration of that warm-up, and ensuing cold is what I am interested in.  The 500mb pattern after that brief warm-up looks formidable.  It might be a head fake as shoulder season modeling is infamous for bad takes in the LR.

Yeah I definitely don't want another false hope of anything of any duration like last December.  I remember ecwn the ensembles were horrible last year in winter. Showing great signs and even storms only to head fake. I am the side of true winter not starting until January but not having an all out torch would be nice.

[dwagner88]

I don't even care about cold/snow at this point. I just want rain.