2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[nrgjeff]

To those wondering about November surface T forecasts. This is a mega-ensemble CFS/GEFS/ECMWF weeklies. I'm sorry if it violates the hate speech rule. Warm and totally uninspiring. 

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

To those wondering about November surface T forecasts. This is a mega-ensemble CFS/GEFS/ECMWF weeklies. I'm sorry if it violates the hate speech rule. Warm and totally uninspiring. 

If that comes to fruition, Northern Plains and Southern Canada Snow Cover's going to suffer or disappear. Not usually too alarming at that juncture but, it does extend well North in western Canada. Chinook !     Regardless, let's hope it's wrong. Hudson and Eastern Canada looks fine and would probably be adding snow pack. 

     

[Itryatgolf70]

All I will do is hope the winter is favorable for winter weather here at some point with a few weeks opportunity. I believe the AAM is still negative and that's why I mentioned it's more like laniña than el niño a few days ago. Not sure what will need to happen for the AAM to trend positive, which is more of niño pattern 

[Carvers Gap]

51 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

To those wondering about November surface T forecasts. This is a mega-ensemble CFS/GEFS/ECMWF weeklies. I'm sorry if it violates the hate speech rule. Warm and totally uninspiring. 

This is what happens when Kansas beats Oklahoma.  Things just go to crap - the universe is out of balance.

[Carvers Gap]

@nrgjeff that is the only post you're are allowed to make for November.  LOL 

[Matthew70]

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@nrgjeff that is the only post your are allowed to make for November.  LOL 

Maybe we can allow one more if Kansas wins another big game. 

[John1122]

This would be awesome.  

 

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

This would be awesome.  

 

 

 

I still feel if the forcing remains around the dateline or 180w, we should have opportunities at cold and snow this winter. Also, what's interesting is the AAM is negative, which isn't elnino. It's more niña than anything else 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18 hours ago, John1122 said:

This would be awesome.  

 

 

 

This would be even more awesomerer (6z GFS out to 384)

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS and GEFS are at least starting to show a general 1 -2 inches over the whole TN Valley 

[Carvers Gap]

Some decent looking winter patterns showing up on both the 0z EPS and 0z GEPS in the d12-16 range - decent EPO ridge forming.  The 6z GEFS is torch city w/ a GOA low trying to form and hold.  GOA lows are slow to deteriorate and generally prevent good winter patterns for 4-8 weeks.  My money is on the GEPS/EPS combo....but those two can be pretty abysmal during shoulder season.  Cosgrove last night mentioned that he thought ridging in the West might fire later this month, and has been saying that prior to ensembles showing it.  His analogs have been showing it.   He does mention that the best of winter would likely have to wait until the second half of winter though. 

 One last caveat....when I post my winter forecast ideas in the winter spec thread, I am 100% aware they may be partially or all wrong.  The reason I say that?  When winter starts, I generally don't care if winter moves towards my ideas or not.  Sure, it would be a decent feather in my amateur weather cap, but seasonal forecasts require some good fortune...just think Plinko on the Price is Right.  A seasonal forecast can go poorly right out of the gate if the chip hits a peg and goes the other way.  For now, mine looks right on track...but once we start hashing out storms and 2-4 week weather patterns....I really don't care those ideas fit my seasonal forecast or try to bend my ideas around the seasonal ideas - that is a great way to be wrong most of the time.   So if I call for a warm December, I truly hope December goes cold!  I have my doubts there, but it is GREAT to see two models hinting at an EPO ridge later this month!

[matt9697]

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Some decent looking winter patterns showing up on both the 0z EPS and 0z GEPS in the d12-16 range - decent EPO ridge forming.  The 6z GEFS is torch city w/ a GOA low trying to form and hold.  GOA lows are slow to deteriorate and generally prevent good winter patterns for 4-8 weeks.  My money is on the GEPS/EPS combo....but those two can be pretty abysmal during shoulder season.  Cosgrove last night mentioned that he thought ridging in the West might fire later this month, and has been saying that prior to ensembles showing it.  His analogs have been showing it.   He does mention that the best of winter would likely have to wait until the second half of winter though. 

 One last caveat....when I post my winter forecast ideas in the winter spec thread, I am 100% aware they may be partially or all wrong.  The reason I say that?  When winter starts, I generally don't care if winter moves towards my ideas or not.  Sure, it would be a decent feather in my amateur weather cap, but seasonal forecasts require some good fortune...just think Plinko on the Price is Right.  A seasonal forecast can go poorly right out of the gate if the chip hits a peg and goes the other way.  For now, mine looks right on track...but once we start hashing out storms and 2-4 week weather patterns....I really don't care those ideas fit my seasonal forecast or try to bend my ideas around the seasonal ideas - that is a great way to be wrong most of the time.   So if I call for a warm December, I truly hope December goes cold!  I have my doubts there, but it is GREAT to see two models hinting at an EPO ridge later this month!

I have had more rain here in Northern Middle TN than some in the forum, but we, too, are getting really dry, and there are way too many dry, dry leaves lying around for all of these people driving around and flipping cigarettes out of the window for there not to be issues. We need a pattern flip to some rain at least once a week! 

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

I have had more rain here in Northern Middle TN than some in the forum, but we, too, are getting really dry, and there are way too many dry, dry leaves lying around for all of these people driving around and flipping cigarettes out of the window for there not to be issues. We need a pattern flip to some rain at least once a week! 

Bone dry here, but not near as bad as other areas.   I was flipping through modeling this morning.   There is a lot of spread in regards to how much rain is due to fall.  Some have nothing, and others have 7-8" worth of rainfall.  I would be fine with a blend!!!!

[*Flash*]

19 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I still feel if the forcing remains around the dateline or 180w, we should have opportunities at cold and snow this winter. Also, what's interesting is the AAM is negative, which isn't elnino. It's more niña than anything else 

Yeah, that's a good observation. Makes me wonder if that will promote any blocking patterns. I'm not as versed with the AAM index but I assume negative implies slower flows? 

[Carvers Gap]

59 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Yeah, that's a good observation. Makes me wonder if that will promote any blocking patterns. I'm not as versed with the AAM index but I assume negative implies slower flows? 

Rain along the equatorial dateline is a great MJO signal for this area.   That has been missing for the last three winters.  It really impacts E TN in a negative way re: snow.

[Itryatgolf70]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Some decent looking winter patterns showing up on both the 0z EPS and 0z GEPS in the d12-16 range - decent EPO ridge forming.  The 6z GEFS is torch city w/ a GOA low trying to form and hold.  GOA lows are slow to deteriorate and generally prevent good winter patterns for 4-8 weeks.  My money is on the GEPS/EPS combo....but those two can be pretty abysmal during shoulder season.  Cosgrove last night mentioned that he thought ridging in the West might fire later this month, and has been saying that prior to ensembles showing it.  His analogs have been showing it.   He does mention that the best of winter would likely have to wait until the second half of winter though. 

 One last caveat....when I post my winter forecast ideas in the winter spec thread, I am 100% aware they may be partially or all wrong.  The reason I say that?  When winter starts, I generally don't care if winter moves towards my ideas or not.  Sure, it would be a decent feather in my amateur weather cap, but seasonal forecasts require some good fortune...just think Plinko on the Price is Right.  A seasonal forecast can go poorly right out of the gate if the chip hits a peg and goes the other way.  For now, mine looks right on track...but once we start hashing out storms and 2-4 week weather patterns....I really don't care those ideas fit my seasonal forecast or try to bend my ideas around the seasonal ideas - that is a great way to be wrong most of the time.   So if I call for a warm December, I truly hope December goes cold!  I have my doubts there, but it is GREAT to see two models hinting at an EPO ridge later this month

A -epo/wpo is what really brings the cold weather when it happens. A goa low is what set up shop in 11-12 winter and it lasted most of the winter. Don't want that in particular 

[Matthew70]

I received word a 3rd large fire has broke out near AL/TN line.

[Carvers Gap]

LR modeling CFSv2/Euro Weeklies (ensemble/control) are showing a sharp flip to winter during the last part of the second week of December.  So, roughly in the four week range.  The EPS shows maybe the opening salvo of changes around the last week of November.  The overall change is a pretty massive reset of the 500mb pattern over most of the northern hemisphere.  IDK if it is an early switch to a Nino pattern or if is a head fake.  The interesting thing will be to see if it actually arrives earlier or stalls.  For now, that might put us in the game for a cold Christmas.  So really, this is the first time we have been able to "see winter time air masses" within a range that has some rigor.

[nrgjeff]

I'm thinking Nino forcing finally makes a stand. MEI would hint at something less than strong from the pure ENSO, which would be helpful in many parts of our Region.

For temperatures. Roll a pair of dice. Or see Winter Spec. I actually found a bullish story this week (for now at least).

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I'm thinking Nino forcing finally makes a stand. MEI would hint at something less than strong from the pure ENSO, which would be helpful in many parts of our Region.

For temperatures. Roll a pair of dice. Or see Winter Spec. I actually found a bullish story this week (for now at least).

Yeah, MEI actually dropped some. The N. Atlantic actually is now looking favorable for blocking. The sst in goa are supportive of Alaskan ridging. SST's west and south of there may try to present a problem with getting a typical Nino Aleutian low as they are a bit warm. The Ural Hp connecting over the pole looks good for HLB as you alluded to in the Winter thread.. A -AO/-NAO combo along with mainly central based Nino is going to pay off somewhere. 

      Saw on main forum the NHEM 500 mb composite from 2009 at this juncture looked very similar.

      I used to do alot of research comparing composites from Analogue years. Some went a similar path but many didn't. So, hard to get hopes real high just yet although the SST progression in area's mentioned do increase the hopes. 

   

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, MEI actually dropped some. The N. Atlantic actually is now looking favorable for blocking. The sst in goa are supportive of Alaskan ridging. SST's west and south of there may try to present a problem with getting a typical Nino Aleutian low as they are a bit warm. The Ural Hp connecting over the pole looks good for HLB as you alluded to in the Winter thread.. A -AO/-NAO combo along with mainly central based Nino is going to pay off somewhere. 

      Saw on main forum the NHEM 500 mb composite from 2009 at this juncture looked very similar.

      I used to do alot of research comparing composites from Analogue years. Some went a similar path but many didn't. So, hard to get hopes real high just yet although the SST progression in area's mentioned do increase the hopes. 

   

The two things I'm concerned about are troughing in the West and the mjo because if it gets in phases 4-6 for any length of time, it's going to be very warm here. We saw it in Dec 2015 but luckily it flipped in January. This winter we have just as strong niño with a -PDO instead because in 15-16, it was positive as well as 97-98. And we know how warm they were, even with a +PDO. Lots and lots of moving parts

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

The two things I'm concerned about are troughing in the West and the mjo because if it gets in phases 4-6 for any length of time, it's going to be very warm here. We saw it in Dec 2015 but luckily it flipped in January. This winter we have just as strong niño with a -PDO instead because in 15-16, it was positive as well as 97-98. And we know how warm they were, even with a +PDO. Lots and lots of moving parts

The MJO should progress along with the favorable SST's in at least 7-8 and probably on to 1. The PDO isn't very negative and doesn't look to get any moreso. 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies(at least today's and yesterday's) are showing a decently clear Nino pattern with BN 500 heights over the SE by the third and fourth week of December.  That would be an early start for a Nino winter...fingers crossed.  Shades of 09-10 if so.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If nothing else it also looks like rain may start to fall more regularly soon! 

[Matthew70]

Finally some good rain here this evening & tonight.  I think we could approach an inch when all is said & done.  I got my yard mowed & leaves up before it started. 

[John1122]

Barely had misty sprinkles here so far. Hopefully it doesn't die out before we can get at least 1/4th inch. 

The November temperature outlook is deeply depressing for my winter loving self. We can still have a snowy winter after a warm November but the odds favor it going the other way.  I hope we can get a few more rain events just to get the fire danger in the rear view. 

 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

Barely had misty sprinkles here so far. Hopefully it doesn't die out before we can get at least 1/4th inch. 

The November temperature outlook is deeply depressing for my winter loving self. We can still have a snowy winter after a warm November but the odds favor it going the other way.  I hope we can get a few more rain events just to get the fire danger in the rear view. 

 

 

 

Yeah, definitely not looking good irt November correlation. Many esp. MA see December as main one. Stats show November here. Not many went on to be Great Winters when November was mild. -94-95 starting to stick out again. Only good aspect to it was abundance of rain . It was backloaded but, only received several minor snowfalls of generally an inch or less in February. March did produce a Rain to Thundersnow event with a general 4 to 12" in far SWVA. Up to 18" reported in portions of Harlan and Letcher Co. KY.

     Just off memory, my Season Total was around 8". Paltry but, not like last Winter's 2.7.

[Itryatgolf70]

22 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, definitely not looking good irt November correlation. Many esp. MA see December as main one. Stats show November here. Not many went on to be Great Winters when November was mild. -94-95 starting to stick out again. Only good aspect to it was abundance of rain . It was backloaded but, only received several minor snowfalls of generally an inch or less in February. March did produce a Rain to Thundersnow event with a general 4 to 12" in far SWVA. Up to 18" reported in portions of Harlan and Letcher Co. KY.

     Just off memory, my Season Total was around 8". Paltry but, not like last Winter's 2.7.

Hopefully we don't go down 94-95 pathway anytime soon. Another warm winter

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Hopefully we don't go down 94-95 pathway anytime soon. Another warm winter

Yep. I'm hoping not. Severe Storms in January that Winter. 

[Itryatgolf70]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Yep. I'm hoping not. Severe Storms in January that Winter. 

Only way to look at is that we don't have alot of opportunities even in great winters because we are in the south. 09-10 only got two events, which I was wanting 4-5 lol