2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

All kinds of moving parts and fronts coming in and out. It's actually a huge positive seeing an active pattern this early in the year as to last year.

The Euro control was super similar.  It actually had two clippers - LOL.

[Met1985]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro control was super similar.  It actually had two clippers - LOL.

That's something we've not seen in several November's. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah it almost looks about as good as some of the looks we've gotten in some recent Januarys, lol

Storm is still there at 18z, but more westerly track

Here is the 12z gif @Carvers Gap

[John1122]

Impressive turn today after it being actually hot and muggy yesterday. 48 degrees with some light showers so far. I'm hoping for a 1/4th of an inch but probably won't get there looking at radar trends.

[Carvers Gap]

LR modeling really likes the idea of slp feeding into a strong cold front.  The 12z Euro is another variation.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I’m about ready to start tracking a good rain like I do snow lol. Time to start looking at EPS members for fantasy rainstorms. 

[Carvers Gap]

Only about two more weeks, then the first winter thread goes up.  Be thinking about whether you are called to fire up that thread....bring some good mojo.  Whoever started the 14-15 thread, that may be who it needs to be.

[iluvsnow]

As always, I will be checking in on your region and your winter threads this season. Your knowledge, and enthusiasm are contagious. Being in a contiguous region to our Ohio Valley, I know that what comes up from the south and west....affects you guys first. Here's to a great snow season ahead, for both of our regions.

[Carvers Gap]

Does anyone have any of the November seasonal maps that they are willing to share?  WxBell has not updated, and I haven't browsed Twitter this week.

Always great to have Ohio people passing through!  We have family near Canton.   

[fountainguy97]

Drought really taking hold. 
not much of interest on models. So I guess seeing how red this map gets is about the most interesting thing we have to watch.

[Matthew70]

My nephew says it looks like there’s a big fire on the mountain near South Pittsburgh.  Can anyone confirm?

[Daniel Boone]

52 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

My nephew says it looks like there’s a big fire on the mountain near South Pittsburgh.  Can anyone confirm?

Really worried much of the area's going to have to deal with that. I pray not. 

[Itryatgolf70]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Really worried much of the area's going to have to deal with that. I pray not. 

I think we are having a laniña hangover from last year still having an effect 

[Carvers Gap]

11 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I think we are having a laniña hangover from last year still having an effect 

Drought breeds more drought.  That much I am certain of....

Actually, the top two years for TRI in terms of September/October drought are El Ninos.  My earlier post re: Oct/Sept drought is in this thread or the winter spec thread.  I think(off the top of my head) three of the top 5 years are El Nino.  Fall drought, while certainly characteristic of La Niña (edit), is not always La Nina.  Severe drought during Fall IMBY is about 50/50 La Nina and El Nino for TRI.  If anything the lack of gradient in the Pacific is the likely culprit.  Lots of AN SSTs.  The amount of rainfall from this past April to August is representative of El Nino and maybe also the snowfall at Mammoth during the second half of last winter.  As we noted in our earlier discussion, there are probably multiple drivers.   If we had a La Nina hangover, this summer would have been hot and dry - it wasn't.  It was rainy and BN for months on end.  Maybe the east based NAO (which should revert to basin wide) is causing the drought?  Again, I don't think it is La Nina, but I could be wrong.  What is your reasoning behind that?  I would be interested to know.

Also, Cosgrove's winter forecast is out.  What did you think?

Cansips seasonal maps are finally out - textbook Nino progression.  Likely that is due to analog driven algorithms, but that is what is shown.   Those analogs may or may not be right.

[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Really worried much of the area's going to have to deal with that. I pray not. 

Yeah, I am definitely concerned.  I don't discuss it much here as I don't want someone with bad intentions reading my thoughts on the drought.  I know you are careful as well.   I worry that those types of folks monitor wx forums and the NWS red flag warning alerts.  The good thing is the amount of rainfall prior to September (your area is a perplexing exception).  

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

My nephew says it looks like there’s a big fire on the mountain near South Pittsburgh.  Can anyone confirm?

 

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Really worried much of the area's going to have to deal with that. I pray not. 

 

Southwest Virginia is dealing with this tonight.  Again, I hate to say much else.  Scannerfood on FB is a good follow for local coverage.

[1234snow]

 
Southwest Virginia is dealing with this tonight.  Again, I hate to say much else.  Scannerfood on FB is a good follow for local coverage.

Last night as well.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, I am definitely concerned.  I don't discuss it much here as I don't want someone with bad intentions reading my thoughts on the drought.  I know you are careful as well.   I worry that those types of folks monitor wx forums and the NWS red flag warning alerts.  The good thing is the amount of rainfall prior to September (your area is a perplexing exception).  

Yeah true. We lucked out in early September in Lee County at least with the Supercell that dumped 2-3 inches. Wasn't for that we'd been in serious danger even then.

      I'm hoping and praying the STJ will fire up soon and it'll average a bit further N than typical Nino Climo. With what is looking more likely of a -AO and NAO continuing on average, so Systems riding along it should occasionally interact with the STJ. 

     

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah true. We lucked out in early September in Lee County at least with the Supercell that dumped 2-3 inches. Wasn't for that we'd been in serious danger even then.

      I'm hoping and praying the STJ will fire up soon and it'll average a bit further N than typical Nino Climo. With what is looking more likely of a -AO and NAO continuing on average, so Systems riding along it should occasionally interact with the STJ. 

     

I think you nailed it when you said that active hurricane season is wrecking havoc on modeling and the EC wx pattern.  I think that is more likely a product of a warm Atlantic basin than it is a Nina hangover.  That we have not had more landfalling hurricanes is probably more a product of Nino climatology.  NE TN is a place where, once drought is established, it can be very difficult to break...same thing re: a flooding pattern.  

Cosgrove has a great write-up for winter...maybe implied that by late November we maybe head towards a more traditional Nino pattern.  Though he seems to think this will be a less traditional Nino winter where December might turn colder than many think - that is off the top of my head so anyone feel free to correct that if it isn't correct.

[Itryatgolf70]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah true. We lucked out in early September in Lee County at least with the Supercell that dumped 2-3 inches. Wasn't for that we'd been in serious danger even then.

      I'm hoping and praying the STJ will fire up soon and it'll average a bit further N than typical Nino Climo. With what is looking more likely of a -AO and NAO continuing on average, so Systems riding along it should occasionally interact with the STJ. 

     

Most time, but not all time the AO will be crazy positive when a SSW is developing so usually that's a good sign it may get cold if that happens. Big spikes in teleconnections 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Drought breeds more drought.  That much I am certain of....

Actually, the top two years for TRI in terms of September/October drought are El Ninos.  My earlier post re: Oct/Sept drought is in this thread or the winter spec thread.  I think(off the top of my head) three of the top 5 years are El Nino.  Fall drought, while certainly characteristic of El Nino, not always La Nina.  Severe drought during Fall IMBY is about 50/50 La Nina and El Nino for TRI.  I anything the lack of gradient in the Pacific is the likely culprit.  Lots of AN SSTs.  The amount of rainfall from April to August is representative of El Nino and maybe also the snowfall at Mammoth during the second half of winter.  As we noted in our earlier discussion, there are probably multiple drivers.   If we had a La Nina hangover, this summer would have been hot and dry - it wasn't.  It was rainy and BN for months on end.  Maybe the east based NAO (which should revert to basin wide) is causing the drought?  Again, I don't think it is La Nina, but I could be wrong.  What is your reasoning behind that?  I would be interested to know.

Also, Cosgrove's winter forecast is out.  What did you think?

Cansips seasonal maps are finally out - textbook Nino progression.  Likely that is due to analog driven algorithms, but that is what is shown.   Those analogs may or may not be right.

Y

 

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Drought breeds more drought.  That much I am certain of....

Actually, the top two years for TRI in terms of September/October drought are El Ninos.  My earlier post re: Oct/Sept drought is in this thread or the winter spec thread.  I think(off the top of my head) three of the top 5 years are El Nino.  Fall drought, while certainly characteristic of El Nino, not always La Nina.  Severe drought during Fall IMBY is about 50/50 La Nina and El Nino for TRI.  I anything the lack of gradient in the Pacific is the likely culprit.  Lots of AN SSTs.  The amount of rainfall from April to August is representative of El Nino and maybe also the snowfall at Mammoth during the second half of winter.  As we noted in our earlier discussion, there are probably multiple drivers.   If we had a La Nina hangover, this summer would have been hot and dry - it wasn't.  It was rainy and BN for months on end.  Maybe the east based NAO (which should revert to basin wide) is causing the drought?  Again, I don't think it is La Nina, but I could be wrong.  What is your reasoning behind that?  I would be interested to know.

Also, Cosgrove's winter forecast is out.  What did you think?

Cansips seasonal maps are finally out - textbook Nino progression.  Likely that is due to analog driven algorithms, but that is what is shown.   Those analogs may or may not be right.

I saw Cansips and overall it looks pretty good. I do think it may be overplaying the -PDO as it is close to neutral. Also, if the AO and NAO go as guidance suggests December could be colder than suggested. 

    I hadn't saw Cozs Outlook. Will give it a read. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think you nailed it when you said that active hurricane season is wrecking havoc on modeling and the EC wx pattern.  I think that is more likely a product of a warm Atlantic basin than it is a Nina hangover.  That we have not had more landfalling hurricanes is probably more a product of Nino climatology.  NE TN is a place where, once drought is established, it can be very difficult to break...same thing re: a flooding pattern.  

Cosgrove has a great write-up for winter...maybe implied that by late November we maybe head towards a more traditional Nino pattern.  Though he seems to think this will be a less traditional Nino winter where December might turn colder than many think - that is off the top of my head so anyone feel free to correct that if it isn't correct.

Lol. Hadn't saw this post by you. Was replying to other. Sounds like I'm on same page as Coz. Knowing Coz is leaning colder for December makes me feel more confident about it. He's hard to beat. 

    I think you nailed it on why the lack of landfalling canes Buddy. Makes sense. 

     I'm going to go check Larry's  outlook out. 

[Daniel Boone]

10 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Most time, but not all time the AO will be crazy positive when a SSW is developing so usually that's a good sign it may get cold if that happens. Big spikes in teleconnections 

Sadly, as many of us know, SSW can sometimes mess up a good pattern for us. 

[Daniel Boone]

Cosgrove's outlook looks good. Good reasoning per usual from him. 

       Only thing that is a bit puzzling is his Analogue list, however. Some of those weren't Nino's. Apparently other parameters were used in coming up with those. I used to converse with Larry. I may give him a buzz. 

 

[Matthew70]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, I am definitely concerned.  I don't discuss it much here as I don't want someone with bad intentions reading my thoughts on the drought.  I know you are careful as well.   I worry that those types of folks monitor wx forums and the NWS red flag warning alerts.  The good thing is the amount of rainfall prior to September (your area is a perplexing exception).  

Sad anyone would read these forums & want to do bad things. Hopefully rain comes soon. 

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Cosgrove's outlook looks good. Good reasoning per usual from him. 

       Only thing that is a bit puzzling is his Analogue list, however. Some of those weren't Nino's. Apparently other parameters were used in coming up with those. I used to converse with Larry. I may give him a buzz. 

 

Like IT@G’s thoughts, LC doesn’t feel like this is a normally behaving El Niño.  I need to go back and re-read it.  I was in a hurry when I read it.  I am not big on a cold December, but there are a cluster of El Niño’s which have cold December’s...and some of those are the record dry September/October analogs.  Those analogs aren’t a great match for one reason or another, but I found the possible correlation interesting.

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Sad anyone would read these forums & want to do bad things. Hopefully rain comes soon. 

I don't think that has happened here to clarify.  But I know we sync with Google....so, I am usually super careful if things get too dry.  That's just me, and maybe that caution is warranted on my part.  Honestly, it is such a big story right now...talking about it is likely unavoidable so I don't want folks to think it would be frowned upon if discussed. 

[BuCoVaWx]

The school my daughter's attend is closed today due to a fire behind it. It's been bad for about five days now in this area. 

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Like IT@G’s thoughts, LC doesn’t feel like this is a normally behaving El Niño.  I need to go back and re-read it.  I was in a hurry when I read it.  I am not big on a cold December, but there are a cluster of El Niño’s which have cold December’s...and some of those are the record dry September/October analogs.  Those analogs aren’t a great match for one reason or another, but I found the possible correlation interesting.

Yeah, very interesting and worth mulling over. Whatever is squelching the STJ to oblivion in the South quite possibly is the same "thing" that did it those year's. Just need to find the source. Could be something to do with the Baja cold pool. What areas of the N. Hemisphere that are showing El nino prints , appear to be west of typical as well. So, probably something bigger as a whole as far as 500 mb mechanical atmospheric Driver's, although, the Baja deal probably is affecting the eastern STJ extension. (From Baja eastward). 

    Could be the IOD, maybe even Tunga strat/trop association. Not well versed in that other than effects at HL of which sample size is not great and that is of Volcanic Ash, not moisture.

      What have you came up with Carver ? 

Forgot to mention the SW Atlantic Tropical activity. It's definitely having an effect as we both concluded. Question is, will that disturbed area help or hurt the SE/TN Valley when the STJ finally holds up enough to traverse the area. If the STJ is strong enough, it should pull that moisture laden airmass into it. However, if not , it may not help at all. 

[John1122]

I hope the GFS is onto something with the Miller A in about 8-9 days. We desperately need the rain and Western NC would get a winter event out of it.