2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[Daniel Boone]

Totally agree ! 

[fountainguy97]

Man so close. As Carver said probably going to stay way up at 5000+ but would love to see some flakes flying here!

[nrgjeff]

We can't even get a tropical system to help out around here. Looks like a deep South slider *. Next front from the north looks like another under-performer here too. I think we can recover the drought if November rain does not fail. Cue up your G&R, ha!

* Let's not do that precip shield way south crap in the winter. 

[Daniel Boone]

17 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

We can't even get a tropical system to help out around here. Looks like a deep South slider *. Next front from the north looks like another under-performer here too. I think we can recover the drought if November rain does not fail. Cue up your G&R, ha!

* Let's not do that precip shield way south crap in the winter. 

My sentiments to a T Jeff, lol. It's actually beginning to get under my skin how it just keeps happening. Anguish ! Lol. 

[fountainguy97]

No end in sight. Impressively dry month and a half.

[Daniel Boone]

10 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

No end in sight. Impressively dry month and a half.

Amazing at how much of the US is so dry. Hopefully, the STJ will become more active and propagate northward. A good soaking across the deep South from a rather rogue non named system in the northern Gulf. Hopefully, we see more of these that pull further north. 

[Carvers Gap]

New drought map should be released at 8:30 this morning.

[Carvers Gap]

The pattern change to a much cooler pattern is likely at hand.  I think this lasts through early to mid-Nov, and then flips back warm for 6-8 week to close out the calendar year.  While not exactly rocket science, that is fairly textbook Nino climatology if it happens in that order.  My guess is the first winter time air masses will arrive mid-late January - nothing earth shattering.  Again, I would not be surprised to see snow flying in the mountains early next week, but likely during the next 4-6 weeks.

[fountainguy97]

Hmm. Good chance of high mountain snow early next week. Soundingnis for my location at 2000 ft. Very close!

[Itryatgolf70]

8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The pattern change to a much cooler pattern is likely at hand.  I think this lasts through early to mid-Nov, and then flips back warm for 6-8 week to close out the calendar year.  While not exactly rocket science, that is fairly textbook Nino climatology if it happens in that order.  My guess is the first winter time air masses will arrive mid-late January - nothing earth shattering.  Again, I would not be surprised to see snow flying in the mountains early next week, but likely during the next 4-6 weeks.

I'm hoping November is warmer than normal and then flips to colder in December moving forward. I know all niños aren't the same, but 2009 it was warmer in November and then the rest was history for the most part

[John1122]

18 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I'm hoping November is warmer than normal and then flips to colder in December moving forward. I know all niños aren't the same, but 2009 it was warmer in November and then the rest was history for the most part

I'm not sure on Nino years,  but in the grand scheme of things we basically always want a BN November. There's a pretty strong relationship to BN Novembers and major snow/ice events in the winter here. There's also a pretty strong relationship to dud winters after AN Novembers. It's something like around 70 percent in both directions.

[jaxjagman]

On 10/13/2023 at 2:20 PM, John1122 said:

I'm not sure on Nino years,  but in the grand scheme of things we basically always want a BN November. There's a pretty strong relationship to BN Novembers and major snow/ice events in the winter here. There's also a pretty strong relationship to dud winters after AN Novembers. It's something like around 70 percent in both directions.

Not sure we will see that into Nov John,CFS the last few days wants to strengthen the MJO around the IDL into Nov,thats a typical SER signal which could be well into Nov,i know this is at the end of Oct but still,think we could see the same into Nov 

[Carvers Gap]

Snow is falling on Mt Leconte this evening.

[jaxjagman]

Meh,Euro long range even backs up what the CFS is showing,I'm with John tho,id rather have BN in Nov but this dont look that good right now

[John1122]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Not sure we will see that into Nov John,CFS the last few days wants to strengthen the MJO around the IDL into Nov,thats a typical SER signal which could be well into Nov,i know this is at the end of Oct but still,think we could see the same into Nov 

I sure hope not, or that the Nino/Cold October works out for us. 

[John1122]

If the GFS is to be believed the AN temps will be short lived (3-5 days). Then a major cold front will slam through with the coldest air of the season, and a hard freeze the weekend before Halloween. Pretty widespread 20s showing up for most of the forum area in that time frame. 

[Itryatgolf70]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

If the GFS is to be believed the AN temps will be short lived (3-5 days). Then a major cold front will slam through with the coldest air of the season, and a hard freeze the weekend before Halloween. Pretty widespread 20s showing up for most of the forum area in that time frame. 

John, I would take every year a very warm fall and flip to a very cold winter soon after because unless you live in elevation, it's tuff to get winter weather in the south. So much timing is required 

[John1122]

6 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

John, I would take every year a very warm fall and flip to a very cold winter soon after because unless you live in elevation, it's tuff to get winter weather in the south. So much timing is required 

Unfortunately that tends not to happen, at least when November is very warm. It seems like the November pattern often repeats in winter. If I can have anything, I'll take my chances with a cold November and see where it falls. 

November 2021 was -3.5 here and we had a reasonably memorable winter topped by the March storm. 

Last year I was near normal for November but areas away from the Northern Plateau were around +3 and things didn't go well. 

Memorable winters off the top of my head.

Nov 1976 was -8

All winters after through 1982.

Nov 1984 was -3. 

1995 was -4 in November and it led into one of the best modern day winters we've seen in the region. 

Nov 2013 was -3, 2014 was -6. 

No weather correlation is ever 100 percent but when you start seeing it get to 60/40 or 65/35 splits, that's significant. There are warm Novembers that had good winters to follow. Though one, November of 1977 was AN because it had a very very warm first six or so days and two very AN days late month. The last three weeks were generally BN except for the one spike. It snowed 6 inches the last week of the month and lows were in the single numbers but it still finished +2 because of how warm it was when it was warm (several +15 or more days). 

But our standard bearer winters for extreme cold and snow in my life are basically 

76-77,  77-78, 78-79, 79-80, 80-81, 81-82, (winters were awesome back then) 84-85, 93-94, 95-96, 13-14, 14-15.  6 of 11 the had BN Novembers (more than-1.5) 3 NN (2 were around -0.4, 1 around +0.5), 2 AN. 

Good winters that were snowy, but not frigidly cold (no below 0 weather imby), were 09-10, 10-11, 20-21, 21-22. I believe in that group 2 were AN in November, one NN (-0.3) and 1 was BN. 

Out of those 15 memorable for cold and/or snow, winters 4 had AN Novembers, 7 BN Novembers, 4 NN (with 3 of those 4 on the slightly BN side of normal) Novembers. So technically, 10 of 15 were on the BN side of things. 

The best warm November analog was Nov 1978, it was +4. December remained mild that winter, Jan went BN and February 1979 was extremely cold and snowy. 

I may be missing a winter or two that worked well for us as I'm going mostly off memory.  Also, this applies to the Northern Plateau/Cumberlands area. But it likely applies to a larger portion of the region as well. 

 

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Unfortunately that tends not to happen, at least when November is very warm. It seems like the November pattern often repeats in winter. If I can have anything, I'll take my chances with a cold November and see where it falls. 

November 2021 was -3.5 here and we had a reasonably memorable winter topped by the March storm. 

Last year I was near normal for November but areas away from the Northern Plateau were around +3 and things didn't go well. 

Memorable winters off the top of my head.

Nov 1976 was -8

All winters after through 1982.

Nov 1984 was -3. 

1995 was -4 in November and it led into one of the best modern day winters we've seen in the region. 

Nov 2013 was -3, 2014 was -6. 

No weather correlation is ever 100 percent but when you start seeing it get to 60/40 or 65/35 splits, that's significant. There are warm Novembers that had good winters to follow. Though one, November of 1977 was AN because it had a very very warm first six or so days and two very AN days late month. The last three weeks were generally BN except for the one spike. It snowed 6 inches the last week of the month and lows were in the single numbers but it still finished +2 because of how warm it was when it was warm (several +15 or more days). 

But our standard bearer winters for extreme cold and snow in my life are basically 

76-77,  77-78, 78-79, 79-80, 80-81, 81-82, (winters were awesome back then) 84-85, 93-94, 95-96, 13-14, 14-15.  6 of 11 the had BN Novembers (more than-1.5) 3 NN (2 were around -0.4, 1 around +0.5), 2 AN. 

Good winters that were snowy, but not frigidly cold (no below 0 weather imby), were 09-10, 10-11, 20-21, 21-22. I believe in that group 2 were AN in November, one NN (-0.3) and 1 was BN. 

Out of those 15 memorable for cold and/or snow, winters 4 had AN Novembers, 7 BN Novembers, 4 NN (with 3 of those 4 on the slightly BN side of normal) Novembers. So technically, 10 of 15 were on the BN side of things. 

The best warm November analog was Nov 1978, it was +4. December remained mild that winter, Jan went BN and February 1979 was extremely cold and snowy. 

I may be missing a winter or two that worked well for us as I'm going mostly off memory.  Also, this applies to the Northern Plateau/Cumberlands area. But it likely applies to a larger portion of the region as well. 

 

 

 

Maybe we do want November to be cold. Not sure. I know some winters that were cold in November and blowtorched in actual winter. I would take a great pacific to nullify a -nao/ao. Any winter.

[fountainguy97]

AN still holding on for the month so far. Likely going to bleed further AN.  Big cold shot coming but it may be mostly in November. Chances pretty high for a AN October albeit just barely.

 

Precip is still a problem. Maybe a quick .5-1inch for areas tmrw morning. 

[nrgjeff]

Need to bump one of John's thoughts. I think I first put this in the wrong thread. October does not have much correlation with winter.

November definitely has a nice significant correlation with winter. It's not perfect, but odds are with November.

Then in the longer-term, starting to get the look in the Arctic. AN surface press could deliver mid-latitude cold. 

[Carvers Gap]

The extended long range stuff(40+day models) are into early December.  The point of that comment is that we no longer have to rely. just on seasonal modeling which come in 30 day increments.  It is highly unlikely any of those maps are right, but they do allow a glimpse into the world of large scale, 500mb geopotential daily progressions.

[Itryatgolf70]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The extended long range stuff(40+day models) are into early December.  The point of that comment is that we no longer have to rely. just on seasonal modeling which come in 30 day increments.  It is highly unlikely any of those maps are right, but they do allow a glimpse into the world of large scale, 500mb geopotential daily progressions.

Which maps of those carver?

[Matthew70]

Most of the rain for mid TN dried up.  South of 40 pretty much nada.  My new grass is coming up but that is  because of me watering.  Next 10 days looks like more of the same.  Nice temps but DRY!  Hoping this does not mean fire season is going to be rough.  The leaves are coming down quickly now especially with the wind. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Which maps of those carver?

GFS long range extended and Euo Weeklies...The EW's are 46 days out and GFS extended is similar.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Most of the rain for mid TN dried up.  South of 40 pretty much nada.  My new grass is coming up but that is  because of me watering.  Next 10 days looks like more of the same.  Nice temps but DRY!  Hoping this does not mean fire season is going to be rough.  The leaves are coming down quickly now especially with the wind. 

We got a decent amount for a change. .67" . Area's close by me here in Lee County received a good bit more as they got the heavier showers today. Only light one's at my house today. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think @John1122 talked about this earlier....

Looks like a strong cold shot around Halloween is on the table.  I would suspect we see a strong snowstorm in the Plains which ushers in what could be temps that feel more like winter than fall.  This is the type of air mass that "could" produce the first snow showers/flurries at lower elevations.  Just last week, areas above 5,000' saw their first snowfall in the Smokies.  

The timing is still about ten days out, so proceed with caution.  That said, ensembles and operationals are showing cold air dropping into Montana and the Dakotas....then southeastward.  Not that the SER ever needs any help, but it still has plenty of punch due it not really being winter yet.  However, with wavelengths changing-up....mischief could be afoot.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think @John1122 talked about this earlier....

Looks like a strong cold shot around Halloween is on the table.  I would suspect we see a strong snowstorm in the Plains which ushers in what could be temps that feel more like winter than fall.  This is the type of air mass that "could" produce the first snow showers/flurries at lower elevations.  Just last week, areas above 5,000' saw their first snowfall in the Smokies.  

The timing is still about ten days out, so proceed with caution.  That said, ensembles and operationals are showing cold air dropping into Montana and the Dakotas....then southeastward.  Not that the SER ever needs any help, but it still has plenty of punch due it not really being winter yet.  However, with wavelengths changing-up....mischief could be afoot.

Definitely looks colder for sure. Hopefully we can get some rain because alot of us are dry. Not buying any snow except for higher elevations. Also, we all are due for a cold winter 

[John1122]

The rain here was pretty decent, around .70. This hasn't been like a typical dry spell in fall, because usually those tend to feature a lot of sun and a lot of AN temps. The short periods of rain we've gotten were allowed to soak in because of extended cloudy stretches, and coolish temperatures. I do know I've been luckier with rain than those south of I-40.

[nrgjeff]

Cold forecast for Halloween has a good track record recent years. Kids trick-or-treat. Parents drink more to feel warm. Rinse repeat.