2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[jaxjagman]

This seems to be shaping up to possibly a cross between the strong 2015-2016 and 1995-1996 ElNino.The thermocline is starting to really warm the past several days in region 3.4,looks like a potential to be a strong ElNino basin wide,we dont do very well in our parts in recent history but the jet gets suppressed and can bring bowling balls into our region just like 2016 in Jan Nashville got almost "9  of snow so it dont really mean it will be a snooze fest winter.Both the dates above also had tornado outbreaks in late Feb.plus in 1996 EARLY FEB Sparta./Crossville dipped down to around -20F,no telling what this winter will bring,maybe someone will get rocked.

 

I took this from MJO812,so credit to him,just something to read in this boring pattern right now

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

This seems to be shaping up to possibly a cross between the strong 2015-2016 and 1995-1996 ElNino.The thermocline is starting to really warm the past several days in region 3.4,looks like a potential to be a strong ElNino basin wide,we dont do very well in our parts in recent history but the jet gets suppressed and can bring bowling balls into our region just like 2016 in Jan Nashville got almost "9  of snow so it dont really mean it will be a snooze fest winter.Both the dates above also had tornado outbreaks in late Feb.plus in 1996 EARLY FEB Sparta./Crossville dipped down to around -20F,no telling what this winter will bring,maybe someone will get rocked.

 

I took this from MJO812,so credit to him,just something to read in this boring pattern right now

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

95-96 was weak Nina. 94-95 was Nino and a warm one at that. 

[Carvers Gap]

LR modeling has taken a decidedly warm turn since the colder solutions appeared last week.  Now, shoulder season modeling is likely not correct.   I still think we see 7-10 days of cold temps centered maybe week 2-3 of October.   At this point, nothing ridiculously warm is out there as seasonal norms are now dropping.

Regardless of temp maps, it is much cooler in the mornings.  Temps are +1.7 for September at TRI.  Precip is WAY below normal.  Only 0.79" for the month so far w/ some precip forecast to fall this week.   Only two days this month have had more than 0.10 of rainfall.  Drought is beginning to build in the Mississippi River drainage after several weeks(months in some places) of the mid-continent ridge in place.  Southern portions of our forum area are now seeing drought conditions.

One thing to note about precip patterns during fall.  Snow patterns during winter to gravitate towards places which had the most precip during fall - that has been my experience.   Dry wx patterns during fall can often portend to dry winters - but that would surprise me w/ the Nino pattern, especially for E TN.  

Saw this maybe in the MA forum....last time we had a falling QBO and Nino was maybe 14-15.  Somebody can check me on that.  I haven't verified that.

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

LR modeling has taken a decidedly warm turn since the colder solutions appeared last week.  Now, shoulder season modeling is likely not correct.   I still think we see 7-10 days of cold temps centered maybe week 2-3 of October.   At this point, nothing ridiculously warm is out there as seasonal norms are now dropping.

Regardless of temp maps, it is much cooler in the mornings.  Temps are +1.7 for September at TRI.  Precip is WAY below normal.  Only 0.79" for the month so far w/ some precip forecast to fall this week.   Only two days this month have had more than 0.10 of rainfall.  Drought is beginning to build in the Mississippi River drainage after several weeks(months in some places) of the mid-continent ridge in place.  Southern portions of our forum area are now seeing drought conditions.

One thing to note about precip patterns during fall.  Snow patterns during winter to gravitate towards places which had the most precip during fall - that has been my experience.   Dry wx patterns during fall can often portend to dry winters - but that would surprise me w/ the Nino pattern, especially for E TN.  

Saw this maybe in the MA forum....last time we had a falling QBO and Nino was maybe 14-15.  Somebody can check me on that.  I haven't verified that.

Sadly it’s has turned severely dry here in the midstate. With not much hope in the next 10 days.  I gave up on my yard. Not sure how this drought will affect the changing of leaves but I am seeing many trees with their leaves just dropping.  No colors at all. Such a great wet summer has crashed into a terribly dry fall. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Sadly it’s has turned severely dry here in the midstate. With not much hope in the next 10 days.  I gave up on my yard. Not sure how this drought will affect the changing of leaves but I am seeing many trees with their leaves just dropping.  No colors at all. Such a great wet summer has crashed into a terribly dry fall. 

Leaves here are good.  I still have one shrub which hasn't recovered from the wind chills of last December.  

Modeling tends to get really wonky this time of year.  I have seen it flip on a dime which I suspect it will in about 3-4 weeks.  We are basically in a different pattern than the summer where now the ridge has pushed eastward.  I generally give patterns 4-6 weeks unless they lock-in which is tough to do during shoulder season.  Changing wavelengths will start shaking things up.  And again, the tropical season will stay decently strong through about the third week in October, and then things can change quickly.  The reason that tropical season generally fairs better during Nino years is that the ridge is over the East.  

[Itryatgolf70]

59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Leaves here are good.  I still have one shrub which hasn't recovered from the wind chills of last December.  

Modeling tends to get really wonky this time of year.  I have seen it flip on a dime which I suspect it will in about 3-4 weeks.  We are basically in a different pattern than the summer where now the ridge has pushed eastward.  I generally give patterns 4-6 weeks unless they lock-in which is tough to do during shoulder season.  Changing wavelengths will start shaking things up.  And again, the tropical season will stay decently strong through about the third week in October, and then things can change quickly.  The reason that tropical season generally fairs better during Nino years is that the ridge is over the East.  

From what I've gathered, laniña is more suited for tropical storms and or hurricanes and the opposite is true for niños. We have a strong niño on paper, but the atmosphere and oceans aren't coupled yet and imo have led to more niña like conditions, which is a breeding ground for hurricane activity. The sheer in the Caribbean and Atlantic is very low for a niño 

[nrgjeff]

The QBO is indeed falling. I like a -QBO trend even better than static -QBO. Trouble is two of the last three failed to descend properly, leaving us in the mild pattern. In the medium term for October we do have some high press from Greenland to the Arctic north of Scandanavia. Need that to build over Siberia to Alaska.

Unfortunately that's all the good news I have. Long-term the risk of Super Nino is mild across the board. At this time with the falling QBO I tend to favor equal risks. Mainly the back half of winter could get cold. If the QBO fails then I'm mild Dec-Jan-Feb. Wake me up for severe!

[Daniel Boone]

On 9/25/2023 at 11:54 AM, nrgjeff said:

The QBO is indeed falling. I like a -QBO trend even better than static -QBO. Trouble is two of the last three failed to descend properly, leaving us in the mild pattern. In the medium term for October we do have some high press from Greenland to the Arctic north of Scandanavia. Need that to build over Siberia to Alaska.

Unfortunately that's all the good news I have. Long-term the risk of Super Nino is mild across the board. At this time with the falling QBO I tend to favor equal risks. Mainly the back half of winter could get cold. If the QBO fails then I'm mild Dec-Jan-Feb. Wake me up for severe!

Pretty much my thoughts as well Jeff. With the PDO State, I fear a basin wide Nino, even if moderate may be of little benefit unless extreme HL blocking manifests; strong predominantly east based...Torch.  If more of A Modoki sets up , even a strong Nino along with formidable HLB I think we'd come out at least half way decent as forcing there should poke an occasional + PNA in conjunction with HLB and get the job done . 

[Carvers Gap]

When you hear us talk about a break in continuity....take a minute and look at the 12z GFS and compare it to 6z/0z.  WOW!  Likely a blip, but those breaks in continuity have to be watched.  Let's see if that gains some steam in coming days.  That was actually on modeling several days ago.  That is a major trough amplification.  @jaxjagman, is there a typhoon forecast to recurve?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think these tropical and psuedo-tropical systems off the SE coast have been messing up the pattern progression. There seem to have been troughs that want to swing through, but the tropics have been stopping things up. I will 100% take what the 12z GFS is trying to sell me in long range. The GFS seemed to catch onto these surface highs building in from the Northeast a few weeks ago, maybe once the pesky lower heights off the SE coast clear out we can get some pattern progression, for better or for worse. I like blocky patterns in winter, but not stagnant patterns, lol. 

[Itryatgolf70]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

When you hear us talk about a break in continuity....take a minute and look at the 12z GFS and compare it to 6z/0z.  WOW!  Likely a blip, but those breaks in continuity have to be watched.  Let's see if that gains some steam in coming days.  That was actually on modeling several days ago.  That is a major trough amplification.  @jaxjagman, is their a typhoon forecast to recurve?

Carver, I think it's a quick cool shot due to a +pna spike but may be first taste of fall for many

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like 18z has a similar look to 12z.  Sitting about d10, there is still plenty of time for that to change.  Eerily similar timing to last fall.  Very concerned about the dry wx.

[Carvers Gap]

Interestingly, the 18z GEFS does provide some support for what could be our first real cold front of the season.  Whether this is a pattern flip or not....way to early to know that.  Sort of looks that way, but shoulder season modeling is not for the faint of heart. 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies control run today has a similar progression, but about a week later.  Would make sense that the GFS is too quick.  Anyway, something interesting to watch.  Always an outside chance snow could fly in the mountains during mid-late October above 5000'.  October doesn't have a strong correlation to winter in my book, but let's see if that carries into early November.  Then, that might gives us a hint.  

Really, we need rain in NE TN.  I do concur this fall does resemble La Nina after the summer and late spring were strongly El Nino-esque.  

Time will tell if this is a pattern change on the horizon or just a blip in modeling or the first cold front which is just passing through....Some modeling still maintains a warm pattern.  As Holston noted, the GFS will often catch changes more quickly.  What changes(if any) are possible is wide-open to debate.

[Met1985]

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies control run today has a similar progression, but about a week later.  Would make sense that the GFS is too quick.  Anyway, something interesting to watch.  Always an outside chance snow could fly in the mountains during mid-late October above 5000'.  October doesn't have a strong correlation to winter in my book, but let's see if that carries into early November.  Then, that might gives us a hint.  

Really, we need rain in NE TN.  I do concur this fall does resemble La Nina after the summer and late spring were strongly El Nino-esque.  

Time will tell if this is a pattern change on the horizon or just a blip in modeling or the first cold front which is just passing through....Some modeling still maintains a warm pattern.  As Holston noted, the GFS will often catch changes more quickly.  What changes(if any) are possible is wide-open to debate.

Yeah the 18z gfs upped the anti on the 12z. Really I'm not surprised at the current pattern but do think by mid October we see a cold front come through that may bring a frost.  

[Met1985]

32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies control run today has a similar progression, but about a week later.  Would make sense that the GFS is too quick.  Anyway, something interesting to watch.  Always an outside chance snow could fly in the mountains during mid-late October above 5000'.  October doesn't have a strong correlation to winter in my book, but let's see if that carries into early November.  Then, that might gives us a hint.  

Really, we need rain in NE TN.  I do concur this fall does resemble La Nina after the summer and late spring were strongly El Nino-esque.  

Time will tell if this is a pattern change on the horizon or just a blip in modeling or the first cold front which is just passing through....Some modeling still maintains a warm pattern.  As Holston noted, the GFS will often catch changes more quickly.  What changes(if any) are possible is wide-open to debate.

Also as of noted from Jeff and others that if we see a strong El Nino then we are literally toast.  All we could hope for is a thread the needle event.

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Also as of noted from Jeff and others that if we see a strong El Nino then we are literally toast.  All we could hope for is a thread the needle event.

PDO is a pain in the....

QBO is probably our best hope as we might get periods of blocking which "could" blunt the atmospheric wave events which could follow.

The MJO might be in our favor this winter IF the Nino goes basin wide.

I would really like to see the atmospheric river hit a sharp amplification in the East....just once.  Ok, maybe twice in my lifetime.

Strong Nino's general are warm for sure....no argument from me.  I am counting on a reset gradient as outlined by TyphoonT many years ago.  

I don't have many changes to my original winter ideas....gonna roll the dice w/ that!  LOL

[*Flash*]

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

lol broad brushing Strong El Nino's as warm.. The pattern has been "meh" but there is no correlation.  The globe is breaking its record by 0.5 degrees warm but that's the only thing going for it. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This may just be anecdotal, but I feel like the atmosphere over East TN has just been stagnant lately. Models were not enthused yesterday AM about rain making it off the plateau and as far as I could tell, the line of storm pushed, at least in part, all the way to the NC border. This AM too, showers and storms look pretty healthy in middle TN and KY. Will those make it into the valley? Even if they don't I think things are starting to move around at the mid and upper levels again. Probably helps that we have weak sauce TCs and subtropical systems working on the subtropical ridge over head now instead of Cat 3 and 4 hurricanes bullying it. 

[jaxjagman]

On 9/24/2023 at 9:17 PM, Daniel Boone said:

95-96 was weak Nina. 94-95 was Nino and a warm one at that. 

lol...yeah major brain fart,thx for calling that out

[jaxjagman]

17 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

When you hear us talk about a break in continuity....take a minute and look at the 12z GFS and compare it to 6z/0z.  WOW!  Likely a blip, but those breaks in continuity have to be watched.  Let's see if that gains some steam in coming days.  That was actually on modeling several days ago.  That is a major trough amplification.  @jaxjagman, is their a typhoon forecast to recurve?

The MJO is moving faster it seems but going into a more favorable cooler pattern.East Asia has a trough going through in a couple days and height rises into East China,we should be starting to see possibly a much cooler pattern as we head into next weekend.GFS seems to be to fast,i like the Euro myself as we get into next weekend

[nrgjeff]

Yeah @Holston_River_Rambler I watched robust thunderstorms break up on their way into my location Wednesday eve. East Tennessee lower elevations are stuck in a dry pattern. Parts of Chattanooga got rain, but the ol' East Brainerd crap-out was in full effect.

I expect similar disappointment today in southeast Tenn. Option 1 is morning thunderstorms dissipate early afternoon. Option 2 they go into North Alabama. I see no win for southeast Tenn. 

Oh crap, this is the long-term thread. Recent years confirm strong and super Nino are mild. We had one strong go cold with some QBO PDO and blocking help. Otherwise it's warm. Peer reviewed research shows a strong statistically significant warm bias. 

[Carvers Gap]

Jeff, I had this written-up before you typed your most recent post, and then had to run before editing.  Just now got it posted....

90s Ninos....we want no part of those.  Lots of non-winters during those years with the exception of some big snow events which hit during those warm winters.  The problem with those winters is that there were very few Nina winters to reset the SST gradient.  It was a warm pool within a warm pool in the Pacific basin.  With three straight La Nina's....better chance of a warm pool within a cooler pool.  With that we get a more expected response I think.  I DEFINITELY share concerns with the stronger Nino numbers forecast for this upcoming winter.  I know the drill for strong El Ninos in this forum area.  For now, I am rolling with a reset ocean gradient(due to 3x La Ninas) and the MJO to be in actually good phases due to more rain along the dateline due to an expanding Nino event(to basin wide).  I don't buy the Modoki scenario, but basin wide by mid-winter seems plausible.  

 

[Itryatgolf70]

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jeff, I had this written-up before you typed your most recent post, and then had to run before editing.  Just now got it posted....

90s Ninos....we want no part of those.  Lots of non-winters during those years with the exception of some big snow events which hit during those warm winters.  The problem with those winters is that there were very few Nina winters to reset the SST gradient.  It was a warm pool within a warm pool in the Pacific basin.  With three straight La Nina's....better chance of a warm pool within a cooler pool.  With that we get a more expected response I think.  I DEFINITELY share concerns with the stronger Nino numbers forecast for this upcoming winter.  I know the drill for strong El Ninos in this forum area.  For now, I am rolling with a reset ocean gradient(due to 3x La Ninas) and the MJO to be in actually good phases due to more rain along the dateline due to an expanding Nino event(to basin wide).  I don't buy the Modoki scenario, but basin wide by mid-winter seems plausible.  

 

I'm wondering if the niño stays east based, which I don't want it to, will a -qbo even matter for us? I guess the norm moving forward is warm every winter, but we all are hoping we have opportunities at cold and snow every winter. Supposedly there are more contradictory factors than normal this year for winter

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I'm wondering if the niño stays east based, which I don't want it to, will a -qbo even matter for us? I guess the norm moving forward is warm every winter, but we all are hoping we have opportunities at cold and snow every winter. Supposedly there are more contradictory factors than normal this year for winter

The PDO is the headache IMO.  It is right where we don't want it.  While no indicator is really without flaw, there are conflicts within almost any teleconnection and/or analog package.  I have read and looked at varying commentary and forecasts about the orientation of this winter's Nino.  Generally, I think it starts east based and moves to basin wide - I "think" that is kind of a normal progression.  CANSIPS in a couple of days might give us some insight as its new LR forecast releases Oct 1.  The ECMWF will follow a few days later.  ENSO can be tricky to forecast even at this range.  For me, the 90s had far less snow than the 2010s - lived in Knoxville and TRI during that time.  The 2000s saw a return to a little more snow.  The timeframe from 2009-2015 was good.  Three straight La Nina's in E TN is no bueno for snow IMBY.  Again though, the PDO has been a common factor in "failed" winters in NE TN.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Speaking of the 12z CMC, that was a wild end @Carvers Gap

Some tropical system merging with a mid latitude trough and cut off Baja low mess: 

 

 

That looks like a 3500' elevation and up snow pattern evolution. Probably won't work out but would be wild. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Speaking of the 12z CMC, that was a wild end @Carvers Gap

Some tropical system merging with a mid latitude trough and cut off Baja low mess: 

 

 

That looks like a 3500' elevation and up snow pattern evolution. Probably won't work out but would be wild. 

 

The GFS had something like that at d16.  That model(the GFS) when it throws a wild solution at d16...just never know.  After seeing it nail strat splits from d16, it perplexes me to see it so bad at other times.  LOL.  FTR, I have no idea what is gonna transpire at d10, but to see a potential major trough amplification while the tropics are still active......

I have seen that happen maybe twice....a tropical system get snared by an actual true cold front.  Sandy might have been one.   But with a BIG ridge in front of that cold front, something could get pulled into that...........if indeed any of that is real to begin with.  The CMC is flirting with some kind of crazy phase.  I was just talking about Greenland being so cold on that run.  I hadn't even looked at Texas.  LOL.

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Speaking of the 12z CMC, that was a wild end @Carvers Gap

Some tropical system merging with a mid latitude trough and cut off Baja low mess: 

 

 

That looks like a 3500' elevation and up snow pattern evolution. Probably won't work out but would be wild. 

 

Some sort of southwest monsoon low/GOM tropical system/northern stream mega phase.  LOL.   That would be one for somebody's book if it ever occurred.  I would really have liked to have seen a few more frames just for kicks and giggles.  

For those new to the site, we are just passing the time right now.  Could that happen?  Sure.  Unlikely?  Yep.  But fun to look at. Always have to watch early and late season trough amplifications for mischief...maybe not quite that level of mischief though.

We sure could use the rain though.

[Carvers Gap]

Growing concern w/ the lack of precip showing-up on future modeling in conjunction with a bone dry September.  Hopefully, if we can get this trough in here...that will help.  Looks like that is a more of a possibility than it was a few days ago.  The QPF is bleak.   TRI has 0.83" of precip for the month.  Chattanooga has 0.13".  TYS has 0.42".  I know Jeff and Dwagner have shared some stuff as well, but those numbers are just staggering.   Large portions of the TN Valley forum have been added to the drought monitor mix.  I suspect more areas will follow.  Fortunately temps haven't been terrible, or things could be much, much worse.   Need some rain.  

On the drought monitor, one can see that the EC (east of the Apps) has done reasonably well due to tropical activity and coastal storms.  That is a decent Nino signal.  The further west one gets, the more dry it gets...also a Nino signal.  E TN being dry is definitely NOT Nino-esque.  However, the lack of extreme heat in E TN does follow Nino patterns.