2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I am kinda in shock.  Just a few days ago it was supposed to be lower to mid 90’s here. I’m definitely not complaining.  Definitely could use some rain here in mid TN. Overall the days have been somewhat tolerable this holiday weekend.  The evenings actually have been quite nice.  Starting to get landscaping ready to plant new shrubs after removing ones that last winter killed. Yard is pretty much stalled in growing. I’m hoping winter is a surprise like this summer has been.  This has been overall in my opinion a great summer. 

Looks like the ridge wants to go back West which is a continuation of the pattern we have been in since early June.  The real question I have is whether a ridge can belly into the Upper South under a shallow eastern trough.  That would continue warmer weather after an upcoming cool down.  I do think the tropics are wrecking havoc on modeling over the EC right now.  That is not surprising, but it creates model chaos.

[John1122]

The GFS is probably overdoing it in the opposite from normal direction, but the 00z run is throwing out some lower 60s for afternoon highs imby next Wednesday. Could even see some upper 40s in spots for lows several days in a row. The canadian has most of the forum region between 47-52 by Friday morning the 15th.

[Matthew70]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is probably overdoing it in the opposite from normal direction, but the 00z run is throwing out some lower 60s for afternoon highs imby next Wednesday. Could even see some upper 40s in spots for lows several days in a row. The canadian has most of the forum region between 47-52 by Friday morning the 15th.

Wonder if this is from the TS that has now formed affecting the US? 

[Carvers Gap]

The tropics are creating some wild solutions.  Went from the furnace to the fridge.  Generally, it is my experience that if the tropical system gets close, the sinking air near the outer edges of the storm creates very hot and humid conditions here.  OTH, if the storm is offshore(and powerful), it drags a lot of air from Quebec region, and things cool off.  All of that said, there are some legit cold fronts showing up in the long range. I don't think we have seen the last of AN temps.  General pattern is cold air, followed by very warm temps....wash, rinse, repeat.  So far, the LR looks like a typical fall pattern of back and forth temps.   Models have backed off the crazy warm temps from a week ago.  What once looked like very warm temps this weekend has moderated to a forecast which is warm, but not atypical for early fall.

[Carvers Gap]

25 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Wonder if this is from the TS that has now formed affecting the US? 

I think the tropics are like a wrecking ball outside of 7 days.  That is a lot of compact energy which can completely upend a weather pattern, and modeling is understandably slow in being able to catch trends from that.

[Carvers Gap]

John is on the money w/ the GFS flipping to some colder solutions in the d10-15.  For the first time this year, fall is now showing on modeling for this area.  Chilly!  

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is probably overdoing it in the opposite from normal direction, but the 00z run is throwing out some lower 60s for afternoon highs imby next Wednesday. Could even see some upper 40s in spots for lows several days in a row. The canadian has most of the forum region between 47-52 by Friday morning the 15th.

Great find.  The model has obviously been too extreme w/ warm temps - good catch by you.  What would be interesting is if it is too warm with those cooler temps as well!  Could be an "extremes bias" or it could just have a warm bias.  If those temps are biased warm - some cold air is on the way.  But I am like you, it is prob overdoing it.  Nice to see those temps showing up.  Our leaves here have started changing.  I am ready for some cooler weather.  I know fall athletes and band members are surely ready for some cooler Friday nights!

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great find.  The model has obviously been too extreme w/ warm temps - good catch by you.  What would be interesting is if it is too warm with those cooler temps as well!  Could be an "extremes bias" or it could just have a warm bias.  If those temps are biased warm - some cold air is on the way.  But I am like you, it is prob overdoing it.  Nice to see those temps showing up.  Our leaves here have started changing.  I am ready for some cooler weather.  I know fall athletes and band members are surely ready for some cooler Friday nights!

I'd like to see it have a warm bias but I think it more has some odd extreme bias. Last winter it was way too cold when the big cold shot happened for Christmas. Seems like it was showing -10 to -20 around the area several days out. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

I'd like to see it have a warm bias but I think it more has some odd extreme bias. Last winter it was way too cold when the big cold shot happened for Christmas. Seems like it was showing -10 to -20 around the area several days out. 

I agree.  It seems to place the AN/BN temps in the right place, but yeah....extremes on both ends and sometimes laughably so.

[fountainguy97]

Looks like this cold front mid-week next week and Lee will hook up and bring fall crashing our way. This will be a permanent step down in temps and our first big taste of fall.
 

[Matthew70]

14 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

Looks like this cold front mid-week next week and Lee will hook up and bring fall crashing our way. This will be a permanent step down in temps and our first big taste of fall.
 

We really need some rain in parts of the mid state.  With leaves falling & dryness.  It could lead to a busy fire season. 

[*Flash*]

On 9/8/2023 at 7:01 AM, fountainguy97 said:

Looks like this cold front mid-week next week and Lee will hook up and bring fall crashing our way. This will be a permanent step down in temps and our first big taste of fall.
 

You won me at 'permanent'.  

[jaxjagman]

MJO has some weak signals upcoming but could be going back into the WP,thats a SER signal as we get into Oct.Seems like the CFS is seeing this as well if you look into Africa{maybe a suppressed signal as well) other than timing.But thats a decent KW fixing to pass the IDL.the thermocline between 150W-120W has really been warming lately,this could really warm up Nino 3 pretty much,its already the warmest region right now

[Carvers Gap]

Early start to winter in the Mountain West looks on track.  The first snows of the season for MT and WY are now within 200hours.  While that likely means another significant warm-up here(ridge to balance out the trough), that does mean that the summer pattern is breaking down.  Now, how long does that trough hold in the West?  IDK.  I would think general warmth here will last into that second climatological tropics peak, and then rapidly transition to a cool fall here.  Modeling is flip-flopping all over the place right now - not unusual for shoulder season.  We should see some brief cool shots in the valley, but modeling (operationals and ensembles) are depicting AN temps after d10+.  Fortunately, AN temps during late September are not the subject of as much misery as early August.  So, maybe a few days of 90s still left in the mix...but generally a seasonal to slightly AN temp pattern upcoming once the next ten days are over.  I do think that we see a sharp turn to colder sooner than later...though modeling doesn't have that depicted yet.  Fall during El Nino years can flip on a dime.

[Carvers Gap]

It is pretty crazy how modeling is flipping around.  At one point, it looked like the ridge was locked over the East(remember the crazy hot temps which didn't verify?).  Then, it put the ridge in the West(bellied a ridge in the East under a shallow trough).  Now, modeling has the ridge shifting back east, maybe centered just east of the MS.  My overall thoughts remain similar (maybe the same) to the post just previous to this one.  Just wanted to comment on how back-and-forth modeling has been lately.   

I will add that Ninos have los of Tropics action, and there is a reason for that.  That reason?  Ridge along the EC.  As noted above, when the tropics begin to subside that is likely a consequence oft troughing beginning to nudge eastward.  For now, climatology has been nearly perfect w/ the eastern ridge timing.  There was a spike in activity in early September which coincided w/ warm temps over the east.  The ridge backs down, and cooler air rushes in.  If climatology holds, we see a second peak in activity during the second or third week of October which likely coincides w/ a building ridge here.  The October ridge might be a hair early this year.  

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Of note, leaves here have started changing really early...been going on for a couple of weeks.  Now, that doesn't mean a quick trip to TRI is in order.  This is just initial stuff where the sycamores begin to change along the rivers, early maples, and dogwoods.

[nrgjeff]

Hoping for another great foliage year. RE the East ridge. Do you know what I really want to come of that? Trough Midwest, severe weather of course!

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Of note, leaves here have started changing really early here...been going on for a couple of weeks.  Now, that doesn't mean a quick trip to TRI is in order.  This is just initial stuff where the sycamores begin to change along the rivers, early maples, and dogwoods.

I've got a raft of leaves already down from the huge sycamore by my driveway. The black gum tree alongside it also has several branches that have turned fully red.

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

I've got a raft of leaves already down from the huge sycamore by my driveway. The black gum tree alongside it also has several branches that have turned fully red.

I’m having lots of leaves falling & turning also.  The wx today is absolutely perfection!  Love these temps.  No humidity.  Could use rain though. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Still not much wrt foliage in Roane or my part of S Morgan county. Some spots above 2000' here and there, and typical yellowing of poplars, but that's about it. 

Nice view from work today looking ESE:

 

subsidence overhead as air drops off the plateau:

https://i.imgur.com/of5FVFG.mp4

 

 

 

[nrgjeff]

Well the CFS and ECMWF weeklies are just about total opposites around here. Lovely! Must be shoulder season.

Most of the Pacific tropical cyclone activity is joining the jet stream, vs pumping up a China (ABNA) ridge. I have to favor the cooler CFS. In contrast to the GFS/Euro debate, we've seen the CFS win out about as often as not.

[*Flash*]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Well the CFS and ECMWF weeklies are just about total opposites around here. Lovely! Must be shoulder season.

Most of the Pacific tropical cyclone activity is joining the jet stream, vs pumping up a China (ABNA) ridge. I have to favor the cooler CFS. In contrast to the GFS/Euro debate, we've seen the CFS win out about as often as not.

Agreed. For those getting nervous about the extended creeping warmer, while there's some validity to it, it may be overdone. Whatever the case, when the humidities are as righteous as they are, it's hard to note the difference between a 75/52 day and a 80/55 one. Let's get those lows down and set the stage for some seasonable, on-time foliage next month.  

[jaxjagman]

On 9/13/2023 at 9:17 AM, nrgjeff said:

Hoping for another great foliage year. RE the East ridge. Do you know what I really want to come of that? Trough Midwest, severe weather of course!

Maybe we will get that as we get into Oct,seems like the MJO might show its face by then as it heads towards the WP.This could or should get the tropics going into East Asia

[Carvers Gap]

LR range is a little more interesting today.....

 

 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

LR range is a little more interesting today.....

 

 

Meaning?

[*Flash*]

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

LR range is a little more interesting today.....

 

 

Cryptic Carver with a double ellipse. My favorite. I'm going to assume he's talking about the Greenland blocking showing up on the Euro Weeklies for next month...

[Carvers Gap]

15 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Meaning?

M70, modeling seems to be picking-up on a cold shot during the week 4ish range.  This would be a legit cold shot.  I was just too tired to write about it.

Flash, LOL, I haven't even looked at the 500 maps.  During non-winter months my "scientific approach" is looking at an animated temp map - sometimes anomalies and sometimes just actual temps.  Both the Euro Weeklies Control and CFSv2 are showing the first real cold fronts of the season.  The CFSv2 is predictably quicker (week 3) and the Euro Weeklies Control is during the week 4 timeframe.  

That would coincide potentially w/ the tropical season ending.  

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

M70, modeling seems to be picking-up on a cold shot during the week 4ish range.  This would be a legit cold shot.  I was just too tired to write about it.

Flash, LOL, I haven't even looked at the 500 maps.  During non-winter months my "scientific approach" is looking at an animated temp map - sometimes anomalies and sometimes just actual temps.  Both the Euro Weeklies Control and CFSv2 are showing the first real cold fronts of the season.  The CFSv2 is predictably quicker (week 3) and the Euro Weeklies Control is during the week 4 timeframe.  

That would coincide potentially w/ the tropical season ending.  

What website do you use Carver for the weeklies and such?

[Carvers Gap]

11 hours ago, Met1985 said:

What website do you use Carver for the weeklies and such?

WxBell. I usually take roughly May to July off..then re-up the sub then.  

[Carvers Gap]

First snow map of the season for the eastern foothills and mountains on the 6z GFS.  I don't want to hear any crap about the timeframe.  I have checked the ensembles, and they fully support this.  <sarcasm>  The Chatanooga (doesn't get anything) and TRI (rain) teleconnection is in play, so this will verify.   Enjoy.

.....the torpedoes, full speed ahead.