2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[Carvers Gap]

Rain chances look to be increasing.  I don’t think enough to break the drought, but considerably more than what we have had...which isn’t saying much.

[John1122]

Hopefully the 00z GFS is correct. Way more rain next week than it had been showing and some snow showers for most of us. 

[dwagner88]

15 hours ago, John1122 said:

Hopefully the 00z GFS is correct. Way more rain next week than it had been showing and some snow showers for most of us. 

That's good because today's threat is evaporating quickly.

[Carvers Gap]

Early winter season model war:

12z EPS/GEPS(very cold) vs 12z GEFS (initial cool down followed by warm-up)

Vastly different after d8......

[Matthew70]

Well the rain is not going to happen.  Sheesh.  Low humidity & winds are going to drive any fires that get going. This is turning into worse than when Gatlinburg was hit it seems. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Early winter season model war:

12z EPS/GEPS(very cold) vs 12z GEFS (initial cool down followed by warm-up)

Vastly different after d8......

Yeah, if GEFS turns out right, I'll probably lean overall mild Winter and 94-95 Analogue back up. More times than not, late November is an indicator of whether we have a milder or cooler than average Winter.  That freaking warm pool off Japan I think is a thorn. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, if GEFS turns out right, I'll probably lean overall mild Winter and 94-95 Analogue back up. More times than not, late November is an indicator of whether we have a milder or cooler than average Winter.  That freaking warm pool off Japan I think is a thorn. 

 

I think we are gonna be good, but may have to wait a bit.  The 18z GEFS did budge slightly towards the other global ensembles.  I don't trust the Euro ensemble at this time of year though.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This front has been as disappointing as TN's performance vs Mizzou. But at least in terms of rain, I think it's coming slowly but surely. I wish we could get out of it quicker, but I think only a tropical system could do that. A lot of underperforming on global wrt to qpf lately.

Drove from just south of Wartburg, to Knoxville, to Kingsport today and man the smoke was bad between let's say exit 4 and exit 15 on I-81. Random new wildfire on the mts above Oliver Springs too.

18z Euro still seems optimistic:

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think we are gonna be good, but may have to wait a bit.  The 18z GEFS did budge slightly towards the other global ensembles.  I don't trust the Euro ensemble at this time of year though.

Yeah, saw that after posting that. I'm still a bit gun-shy. 18z ensembles look good for last week of November. If they pan out I will lean toward a decent Winter. 

[Matthew70]

My neighbor is a volunteer for the forestry fire fighting.  He has been in Rhea county last 2 days fighting one there.  Said lost a few houses.  He said that they are on standby with watchers stationed on the plateau Sunday-Tuesday. Said possible mountain gravity waves there. Similar to what happened in Gatlinburg. He said the plateau is the highest concern at the moment. He said it would take a lot of rainfall to help the situation.  Hopefully people will not attempt any fires this weekend into next week.  Even frying turkeys could be dangerous. 

[John1122]

There was a fire near me today. My cousin lost a van and outbuilding. The rural fire service and Forestry got it out before it could take off. It was on the edge of about 35000 acres of dry woods. 

The rain was almost non-existent. 

[John1122]

I posted that and it literally started pouring. 

[MattPetrulli]

8 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Well the rain is not going to happen.  Sheesh.  Low humidity & winds are going to drive any fires that get going. This is turning into worse than when Gatlinburg was hit it seems. 

Winds won't be as strong as Gatlinburg, LLJ probably won't be strong enough.

 

However, it may be on the same level as the Wears Valley fires in 2022. 

To make things worse, we were not in a drought for the Wears Valley fires, while as we are in a severe drought this time around

Then vs now. That being said, a saving grace could be a large precip shield ahead of whatever cold front convection comes through. That may help temper the fire threat a lot. However, if the precip shield does not come through during the day, Monday night-Tuesday will be very scary.

[Jed33]

There was a fire at The Ridgefield Veterinary Clinic yesterday evening here in Morristown. Thankfully there were no animals in the building and no one was injured. Fire crews worked to put it out-I have no idea if it was related to the drought or if it maybe was electrical? They haven’t released any information on what caused it yet. I pray that the rain for next week actually materializes, as we are all on the cusp of what could be a very scary time if we don’t get some significant rain soon!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

8 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Hopefully people will not attempt any fires this weekend into next week.

There was a person about 2 miles SE of me trying to burn a big pile of brush Thursday and there's another guy trying to clear several acres to my NW who has ongoing smoldering fires. There's probably a hundred yards between those fires and the woods, but TBH there is a non 0 chance that either could hop to the woods and if that happens I'm screwed. At least the guy with the several acres is trying to control his brushpiles, but the guy to my SE just started burning his brush Thursday. 

I still see folks throwing cigarettes out the window in highway 62 between Oliver Springs and Wartburg. I guess its the typical "well my house isn't on fire so it doesn't concern me" crowd. 

We had a pretty good rain for like 5 minutes yesterday evening, I could even hear it in the house. 

What in the world happened to this El-Nino pattern early this fall? Up through maybe mid August it seemed like we were going to to have a pretty wet fall. There were some days it just rained and rained and then *poof* it evaporated. Some of the driest fall records we are breaking in some locations go back to the late 1800s. 

GFS for the qpf win this morning:

 

Ensembles see at least and inch to be likely by next week, but we'll see if that actually pans out. 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

There was a person about 2 miles SE of me trying to burn a big pile of brush Thursday and there's another guy trying to clear several acres to my NW who has ongoing smoldering fires. There's probably a hundred yards between those fires and the woods, but TBH there is a non 0 chance that either could hop to the woods and if that happens I'm screwed. At least the guy with the several acres is trying to control his brushpiles, but the guy to my SE just started burning his brush Thursday. 

I still see folks throwing cigarettes out the window in highway 62 between Oliver Springs and Wartburg. I guess its the typical "well my house isn't on fire so it doesn't concern me" crowd. 

We had a pretty good rain for like 5 minutes yesterday evening, I could even hear it in the house. 

What in the world happened to this El-Nino pattern early this fall? Up through maybe mid August it seemed like we were going to to have a pretty wet fall. There were some days it just rained and rained and then *poof* it evaporated. Some of the driest fall records we are breaking in some locations go back to the late 1800s. 

GFS for the qpf win this morning:

 

Ensembles see at least and inch to be likely by next week, but we'll see if that actually pans out. 

 

 

Wound up with .30" here. I see area's just north of here did well. Less to the south.  Multiple fire's here in Lee County as well. Alot of acreage has been burned. 

[Knoxtron]

0.02 inches up here on Waldens Ridge. All ponds are bone dry and the county has been doing prescribed burns around infrastructure 24-7 last 3 days. 

 

Very windy atm

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC is just insanely cold...low single digits the week after Thanksgiving.  That can't be right.  Looks like a feedback issue.

[Carvers Gap]

Is that a piece of the SPV on the 12z CMC that pays us a visit?  Again, I don't think that is right, but man...

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is that a piece of the SPV on the 12z CMC that pays us a visit?  Again, I don't think that is right, but man...

Think couple other Models were advertising that for then a few days ago; showing that SPV Piece dropping into Great Lakes. 

     

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro looks more like the CMC at around 100hr than the GFS.  That is a crazy looking pattern.  Real feels would be well below zero.  Again, I don't think that is right, but interesting to see this early.  Let's see where the Euro goes.........

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Think couple other Models were advertising that for then a few days ago; showing that SPV Piece dropping into Great Lakes. 

     

Massive amounts of HL blocking during that time frame.  Euro has the same set-up.  No idea where it goes after it traps a piece of the SPV...

[Daniel Boone]

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Massive amounts of HL blocking during that time frame.  Euro has the same set-up.  No idea where it goes after it traps a piece of the SPV...

Yeah. Hopefully it pans out for us Winter weather lover's. I'm a bit skeptical as tropical forcing from the STJ appears to be going from almost non-existent to full blown heavy duty all at once on some guidance. That may shunt any deep arctic air push. However, with that much blocking, alk to Grelnd. It may . Or if a strong System rides along that Jet and wraps and pulls that air down. 

    Either way, we'd e looking at high chances of frozen precip. 

[MattPetrulli]

From NWS Morristown

The upper ridge and surface high pressure will shift to our east by
Monday. Models are still struggling with the details of the complex
system that evolves to our west, with the GFS often showing less
phasing of the southern stream and northern stream energy, while the
Euro has been more on board with the two systems getting in phase
and a more vigorous surface low developing.  While there is still
considerable spread, there is also quite a bit of support among the
ensemble members for the stronger solution, and confidence is
nudging upward for the possibilty of a significant mountain wave
event mainly Monday night into Tuesday as a surface low likely
tracks by to our west and northwest and 850 mb flow likely
approaches or exceeds 50kt across the mountains from the S and/or
SE. Given the ongoing serious drought and the most likely scenario
of the rain holding off for at least the first part of the potential
high winds, there remains a threat of a period of increased fire
danger mainly along and just to the west of the E TN mountains.  The
wind threat and fire danger threat will continue to be highlighted
in the HWO.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS has moved to the 12z EPS/CMC solution.  A robust cold delivery mechanism is modeled as being in place beginning just after Thanksgiving.    NO IDEA if that verifies, but it is impressive for this early in the season.

[Carvers Gap]

Truly, the d8-16 range is pretty impressive at 500mb.  Get your hands on all three global ensembles and see for yourself.  It certainly could be a head fake, but that it how you draw it up.

[jaxjagman]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Truly, the d8-16 range is pretty impressive at 500mb.  Get your hands on all three global ensembles and see for yourself.  It certainly could be a head fake, but that it how you draw it up.

Wouldnt surprise me if the models get even colder post Thanksgiving,this was yesterday in East Asia,maybe we can get more moisture with a stronger CF that kicks in with a stronger STJ than the models are showing now for some thunderstorms,of course we need rain with thunderstorms or that could promote more wild fires..lol.Man we need some rain

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Wouldnt surprise me if the models get even colder post Thanksgiving,this was yesterday in East Asia,maybe we can get more moisture with a stronger CF that kicks in with a stronger STJ than the models are showing now for some thunderstorms,of course we need rain with thunderstorms or that could promote more wild fires..lol.Man we need some rain

Wouldn't it be nice to get an old fashioned major November Snowstorm.  Some of the Eastern Valleys biggest Snowfalls actually occured in November. The early 1950's featured one in 1950, 51 and 53 I believe. These were deep Snowfalls. Knoxville and Kingsport received around 18" in the '51 Storm. My area, Lee County received 18-20 from that one. 15-28" from the 1950 one(Great Appalachian Storm). The 53 one not as deep but still a respectable 4-10". 

     The 60's and 70's also featured a couple but, not the magnitude of the early 50's Storms. My area received 8" in '71 . 12" in Pennington gap and 16" Big Stone gap in 1977. Middle Tenn. received a major Snowfall in early November 1966 .

John probably has nore detailed info regarding this Subject. Paging John.... 

[John1122]

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wouldn't it be nice to get an old fashioned major November Snowstorm.  Some of the Eastern Valleys biggest Snowfalls actually occured in November. The early 1950's featured one in 1950, 51 and 53 I believe. These were deep Snowfalls. Knoxville and Kingsport received around 18" in the '51 Storm. My area, Lee County received 18-20 from that one. 15-28" from the 1950 one(Great Appalachian Storm). The 53 one not as deep but still a respectable 4-10". 

     The 60's and 70's also featured a couple but, not the magnitude of the early 50's Storms. My area received 8" in '71 . 12" in Pennington gap and 16" Big Stone gap in 1977. Middle Tenn. received a major Snowfall in early November 1966 .

John probably has nore detailed info regarding this Subject. Paging John.... 

1950/52 were the big ones in the area. My dad talked about snow over the bumpers of his car in 1952. We had 20 inches. Tri-Cities had close to 20 as did Knoxville. Chattanooga was rain though as was Nashville. The '52 storm was an epic paste job but much more localized to East Tennessee/SWVa  than 1950.  1950 was a long duration event and it was much colder. It snowed over a foot across a large part of the state, 6-9 inches initially and then more snow for several days afterward with highs in the 10s and 20s and lows in the single digits to near 0. Tennessee and Kentucky played an infamously cold and snowy game that year. In '50, Memphis had 2 inches, 9.2 in Nashville, 2 inches in Huntsville Alabama with a high of 19 and low of 1 that far south. It was actually colder in Huntsville than it was in Tri-Cities for the low. Because it stayed cloudy and snowed every day for several days after in the Tri-Cities/Knoxville and Southeast Ky/SWVa/Mid-State.

 

The crazy thing is that most years in the 50s/60s/70s had measurable snowfall in November.  Snow of at least a trace happened every year in the 50's in November. Outside of '50/'52, 2 inches fell in 1956 and 3.5 in 1959. 1960 had none, '61, '62 had half inch events. ''63 had a 2.5 inch event. '66 had an 8 inch event and a 2 inch event. The 8 inch event was November 2nd. the 2 incher was at the end of the month. '68 had a 3 inch and 2 inch event. '69 had a 3 inch event. It was 1973 before a snowless November hit again. In 1974 there was a 2 inch event mid-month. 75/76/77 all had multi-inch events. 1978 was snow free. 1993/1994 was the only back to back snow free November years from 1940-1994 (we did get 3 inches on Halloween 1993 but it stopped snowing around 9pm.) And by that I mean snow of at least a dusting. Then the 2000s hit and November snow just went "poof". None form 2000-2005. 2006 we had half an inch. November has mostly been hard times since 2006.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

1950/52 were the big ones in the area. My dad talked about snow over the bumpers of his car in 1952. We had 20 inches. Tri-Cities had close to 20 as did Knoxville. Chattanooga was rain though as was Nashville. The '52 storm was an epic paste job but much more localized to East Tennessee/SWVa  than 1950.  1950 was a long duration event and it was much colder. It snowed over a foot across a large part of the state, 6-9 inches initially and then more snow for several days afterward with highs in the 10s and 20s and lows in the single digits to near 0. Tennessee and Kentucky played an infamously cold and snowy game that year. In '50, Memphis had 2 inches, 9.2 in Nashville, 2 inches in Huntsville Alabama with a high of 19 and low of 1 that far south. It was actually colder in Huntsville than it was in Tri-Cities for the low. Because it stayed cloudy and snowed every day for several days after in the Tri-Cities/Knoxville and Southeast Ky/SWVa/Mid-State.

 

The crazy thing is that most years in the 50s/60s/70s had measurable snowfall in November.  Snow of at least a trace happened every year in the 50's in November. Outside of '50/'52, 2 inches fell in 1956 and 3.5 in 1959. 1960 had none, '61, '62 had half inch events. ''63 had a 2.5 inch event. '66 had an 8 inch event and a 2 inch event. The 8 inch event was November 2nd. the 2 incher was at the end of the month. '68 had a 3 inch and 2 inch event. '69 had a 3 inch event. It was 1973 before a snowless November hit again. In 1974 there was a 2 inch event mid-month. 75/76/77 all had multi-inch events. 1978 was snow free. 1993/1994 was the only back to back snow free November years from 1940-1994 (we did get 3 inches on Halloween 1993 but it stopped snowing around 9pm.) And by that I mean snow of at least a dusting. Then the 2000s hit and November snow just went "poof". None form 2000-2005. 2006 we had half an inch. November has mostly been hard times since 2006.

That is an MVP post right there.