2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wouldn't it be nice to get an old fashioned major November Snowstorm.  Some of the Eastern Valleys biggest Snowfalls actually occured in November. The early 1950's featured one in 1950, 51 and 53 I believe. These were deep Snowfalls. Knoxville and Kingsport received around 18" in the '51 Storm. My area, Lee County received 18-20 from that one. 15-28" from the 1950 one(Great Appalachian Storm). The 53 one not as deep but still a respectable 4-10". 

     The 60's and 70's also featured a couple but, not the magnitude of the early 50's Storms. My area received 8" in '71 . 12" in Pennington gap and 16" Big Stone gap in 1977. Middle Tenn. received a major Snowfall in early November 1966 .

John probably has nore detailed info regarding this Subject. Paging John.... 

These discussions are awesome!

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

1950/52 were the big ones in the area. My dad talked about snow over the bumpers of his car in 1952. We had 20 inches. Tri-Cities had close to 20 as did Knoxville. Chattanooga was rain though as was Nashville. The '52 storm was an epic paste job but much more localized to East Tennessee/SWVa  than 1950.  1950 was a long duration event and it was much colder. It snowed over a foot across a large part of the state, 6-9 inches initially and then more snow for several days afterward with highs in the 10s and 20s and lows in the single digits to near 0. Tennessee and Kentucky played an infamously cold and snowy game that year. In '50, Memphis had 2 inches, 9.2 in Nashville, 2 inches in Huntsville Alabama with a high of 19 and low of 1 that far south. It was actually colder in Huntsville than it was in Tri-Cities for the low. Because it stayed cloudy and snowed every day for several days after in the Tri-Cities/Knoxville and Southeast Ky/SWVa/Mid-State.

 

The crazy thing is that most years in the 50s/60s/70s had measurable snowfall in November.  Snow of at least a trace happened every year in the 50's in November. Outside of '50/'52, 2 inches fell in 1956 and 3.5 in 1959. 1960 had none, '61, '62 had half inch events. ''63 had a 2.5 inch event. '66 had an 8 inch event and a 2 inch event. The 8 inch event was November 2nd. the 2 incher was at the end of the month. '68 had a 3 inch and 2 inch event. '69 had a 3 inch event. It was 1973 before a snowless November hit again. In 1974 there was a 2 inch event mid-month. 75/76/77 all had multi-inch events. 1978 was snow free. 1993/1994 was the only back to back snow free November years from 1940-1994 (we did get 3 inches on Halloween 1993 but it stopped snowing around 9pm.) And by that I mean snow of at least a dusting. Then the 2000s hit and November snow just went "poof". None form 2000-2005. 2006 we had half an inch. November has mostly been hard times since 2006.

Thanks buddy ! Knew you'd know. I had 51 for 52. 

      Great information!!! 

[fountainguy97]

Hrrr goes nuclear with the wind event Tuesday morning. Quite the wind event shaping up. Thankfully rain quickly after.

[Math/Met]

53 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Hrrr goes nuclear with the wind event Tuesday morning. Quite the wind event shaping up. Thankfully rain quickly after.

The potential is definitely there for significant wind event. When HRRR wind gusts look like that, it’s usually a pretty good indication of a high-end event. Even the high-resolution models typically underestimate wind potential with these events, specifically for places like Cove Mountain and Camp Creek. Hopefully we can avoid any major fire issues.

[jaxjagman]

Hopefully you get some moisture with it if it happens and not dry and low humidity,that wouldnt be good

[Carvers Gap]

12z CMC has a snowstorm north of I-40 around d8.  TIFWIW

[Carvers Gap]

Hopefully, law enforcement will be in these areas looking for any mischief.  Fire agencies and forestry folks are going to have to be on their toes.  

[Daniel Boone]

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z CMC has a snowstorm north of I-40 around d8.  TIFWIW

Yeah, know what ur saying with the fwiw, lol. Seems just as things are looking like they're going to pan out something throws a monkey wrench and shatters everything. That SW pullback tucked under Trough that was a thorn last year and that we feared as a possible occurrence again seems to want to happen again and pump a SE Ridge at times. Hopefully, it won't be deep and can be countered with upstream Blocking. 

   Rooting for the Canadian . 

[Matthew70]

Not liking the drier runs as we get closer.  We need some soaking rains.  Droughts always seem to make their own wx.  Meaning more drought. Even with an 1” of rain in a couple days we are back to where we are now.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

Not liking the drier runs as we get closer.  We need some soaking rains.  Droughts always seem to make their own wx.  Meaning more drought. Even with an 1” of rain in a couple days we are back to where we are now.  

I am no expert on middle TN.  I do think El Nino's tend to be somewhat below climatology the further one goes west in the forum.  It does look like eastern areas should see some improvement during the next 30 days.  The GOM is what will break the drought ultimately along w/ an active STJ.  It will take some time to recover from this.  Right now we need cooler weather and even marginal rain - that will end fire season in its tracks.  What we don't need are hot days and low humidity like we have had. I think that is at an end.

[Daniel Boone]

Models are still not far from showing a pattern that could produce a legitimate Snowstorm. Either overrunning or System oriented. Canadian flirts with it but, weakens and shears it to a mainly light event. 18z GFS takes a significant Snowfall up the Ohio Valley. A few rather minor adjustments could do the trick. 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Models are still not far from showing a pattern that could produce a legitimate Snowstorm. Either overrunning or System oriented. Canadian flirts with it but, weakens and shears it to a mainly light event. 18z GFS takes a significant Snowfall up the Ohio Valley. A few rather minor adjustments could do the trick. 

Cmc is better than it used to be. It would always overhype qpf and temp. It was good with out sleet/ice event last Feb here. It was actually the first to pick it up. I'm hoping we all have at least one opportunity this late fall or winter

[Matthew70]

A large fire has broken out in Marion county.  A resort has been evacuated along with several homes in the area.  Luckily this should be short lived with rain coming in.  Expecting about an inch of rain. 

[Carvers Gap]

Anyone have the link for model verification comparisons?  It seems like the GFS is busting badly on temps (warm bias), and the Euro is too cold at range.  Usually, it is the other way around.

[Carvers Gap]

Also, bout time for the first thread for winter.  We can do it by month(Dec, then Jan, then Feb), or we can just do a winter pattern discussion thread part I, and then restart a new thread when part I gets full(or we need some new mojo).  Whoever starts the thread, gets to choose.  December starts in 11 days, so we are well within range to start it.  

One year we had a medium and long range thread, and then had a short range thread for days 1-5.  We can do that also.  

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS must have gotten a dose of the CMC.  Frigid.

[Itryatgolf70]

40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS must have gotten a dose of the CMC.  Frigid.

Get the euro on board, then it's more believable. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Get the euro on board, then it's more believable. 

Problem with Euro is it does have a warm bias and the bigger thing, imo, is it's defect of holding energy back in the SW.  That changes the whole outcome many times in at range with it. I've not looked today but, am guessing it is doing that and therefore the trough is further west in response to that or just shunted from dropping on down in the East in response. 

[Itryatgolf70]

I've been reading in the other forums is that the consensus is around the holidays would be our next best opportunity at colder and maybe stormier weather. That's over a month away. Sometimes patterns repeat themselves. Don't guarantee anything. I personally don't like niños over moderate intensity but imo of course. Also, icestorms are significantly reduced in niños, which is good. Mainly bowling ball or ULL are favored if enough cold air is there. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I've been reading in the other forums is that the consensus is around the holidays would be our next best opportunity at colder and maybe stormier weather. That's over a month away. Sometimes patterns repeat themselves. Don't guarantee anything. I personally don't like niños over moderate intensity but imo of course. Also, icestorms are significantly reduced in niños, which is good. Mainly bowling ball or ULL are favored if enough cold air is there. 

Yeah, I saw that too. Hopefully, we'll get lucky this go around. I agree on the strength of Nino's. I've always preferred weak . However, Moderate is usually good snow wise particularly in the eastern Valley providing it's not east based. The location of the forcing is really the main thing. Even strong as long as it's central centered can still work. Basin wide like this one will probably be back and forth until weakening come February and March. Strong blocking along with mjo cold phases can make for some decent chances for us before then. I will say, somewhere, at some point, within the Ohio/Tenn Valley areas will get dumped on as the STJ will be moisture laden. 

[Itryatgolf70]

12 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, I saw that too. Hopefully, we'll get lucky this go around. I agree on the strength of Nino's. I've always preferred weak . However, Moderate is usually good snow wise particularly in the eastern Valley providing it's not east based. The location of the forcing is really the main thing. Even strong as long as it's central centered can still work. Basin wide like this one will probably be back and forth until weakening come February and March. Strong blocking along with mjo cold phases can make for some decent chances for us before then. I will say, somewhere, at some point, within the Ohio/Tenn Valley areas will get dumped on as the STJ will be moisture laden. 

Providing there is enough cold air to work with. Always tricky in our area

[Daniel Boone]

25 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Providing there is enough cold air to work with. Always tricky in our area

Yeah, that's always a concern particularly in strong Ninos. Higher elevations less so. The super Nino's of 82-83 and 97-98 produced a decent amount of Snow in East Tenn/ SWVA. 82-83 Seasonal Totals were above average in many locations ( that was in relation to the higher normals back then). 97-98 featured a 2 crippling Snowstorms. The Late January one dumped 10-16" in the Tri- Cities. Over 3 feet in portions of Wise and Russell County VA. The early February one dumped 1-2 feet in portions of SEKY and the Central and northern Plateau in Tennessee. Seasonal Totals ranged from below normal in some Valley locations to above in elevated areas. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

As for the Euro...it has been less dependable during recent years.  Honestly, it seems to have the same cold bias as the CMC. It is especially bad during shoulder season.  The GEFS seems to have a bigger warm bias of late, but......it seems more dependable during shoulder season though.  Right now, it seems modeling tried to inaccurately push a polar air mass into the region at range.  That could still verify, but looks less likely.  And that is more of a Euro bust....GEFS likely scores the win as it appears to have had a more muted intensity and duration for the Thanksgiving "cold" snap.  That said, the Euro identified the switch to cooler first if I remember correctly(at 500 on the Weeklies).  But models being inaccurate is not unsurprising given that modeling past d8 really is just halfway decent at longwave patterns.  A blend of modeling seems to be working really well right now.

Nino climatology favors a move to a SE trough at some point between the last week of December and the third week of January.  The timing of that is crucial, and modeling seems to be centered on the last week of December, but......modeling has already this year (on at least one occasion) had a similar lock(and I do mean locked-in) at range, and now looks like it will whiff.  For now, it is probably better to ride with Nino climatology...and just say a SE trough is likely by mid Jan.  Models will often be too quick to remove a warm eastern air mass(especially w/ little or shallow snow cover over the Plains).   Cold source TBD.  

[Carvers Gap]

I think Grit said it best in the MA forum(or it could have been GaWx or both...I am too lazy to go back and look), the MJO is likely going to fire along the equatorial dateline in the Pacific.  Right now, 8-2-1 don't favor a cold SE....but do when we head deeper into winter.  We have discussed that some earlier(either this thread or the winter spec thread) that the MJO would be likely be a key driver due to the Nino event(and warming SSTs in that region).  Great explanation in the MA forum, and worth a read.  The 8-2-1 teleconnects to a warm SE right now, but is much colder when centered on DJF vs NDJ or OND.  

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think Grit said it best in the MA forum(or it could have been GaWx or both...I am too lazy to go back and look), the MJO is likely going to fire along the equatorial dateline in the Pacific.  Right now, 8-2-1 don't favor a cold SE....but do when we head deeper into winter.  We have discussed that some earlier(either this thread or the winter spec thread) that the MJO would be likely be a key driver due to the Nino event(and warming SSTs in that region).  Great explanation in the MA forum, and worth a read.  The 8-2-1 teleconnects to a warm SE right now, but is much colder when centered on DJF vs NDJ or OND.  

Exactly. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z GFS was certainly a more active run....

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies this evening look stellar.  

[nrgjeff]

Looks mild until Christmas. Let's hope the cold is not 2022 style at Christmas. I'm dreaming white - not (rolling) blackout, ha!

Pressure and Heights over the Arctic and Siberia are a warm signal for a few weeks now. Northern Hemisphere snow cover is too (Rutgers charts). Slight AN Mongolia to Manchuria, but Kazakstan and Canada are meh. 

If all else fails I have my alternate lyrics for Christmas in Dixie by Alabama and others. Christmas in Dixie, tornadoes in the pines. 

[Carvers Gap]

No idea what is going on with the EPF - pretty significant cold bias.  Its 0z control run was fairly epic for the SE.

[Carvers Gap]

...Or maybe I should say that the EPC control says, "Happy Thanksgiving!!!"  Seriously, enjoy turkey day, everyone!  

The LR ensembles do appear to be hinting at a SE trough by mid-month.  The GEFS is less enthused.  EPS and GEPS are fairly textbook.