2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[fountainguy97]

Interesting,  I'm up to 53.40" on the year which is already the highest annual total I have ever recorded here. (Only 2021-23)

Only .5 in the last 12 days but I'm at 3.60" this month.  And a whopping 12.25" last month. Technically the border counties are doing ok in regards to precip.
 

everyone for the most part east of the Mississippi has had a very slow September. Crazy to think that this includes Ophelia and NC is still mostly BN. You can see the NE TN border with AN in September though.

 

 

I feel like we usually have a 4-6week period of dead weather in early fall. Too early for fronts to make it all the way through but too cool for Tstorms and no tropics.  

[8283 El Nino Baby]

1.60" for the month, but it has been really dry the last few weeks.  Sitting at 58.5'' here on the plateau since January 1.

Last year I received 70.77 inches for the whole year.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

Interesting,  I'm up to 53.40" on the year which is already the highest annual total I have ever recorded here. (Only 2021-23)

Only .5 in the last 12 days but I'm at 3.60" this month.  And a whopping 12.25" last month. Technically the border counties are doing ok in regards to precip.
 

everyone for the most part east of the Mississippi has had a very slow September. Crazy to think that this includes Ophelia and NC is still mostly BN. You can see the NE TN border with AN in September though.

 

 

I feel like we usually have a 4-6week period of dead weather in early fall. Too early for fronts to make it all the way through but too cool for Tstorms and no tropics.  

Truly amazing to see so much red on that map.  Great to see the northern end of the Smokies are doing well.

[fountainguy97]

Well some great model agreement for a big trough this weekend. Looks like a chance of widespread upper 30s for a large portion of TN and our first big taste of fall temps. 
 

I have to say I've been loving the dry and warmth we have had. These upper 70s  with low dews are stellar.

[MattPetrulli]

Really am not a fan of entering a drought at the beginning of Fall.

If drought continues to increase, gonna become more and more increasingly concerned when we start getting mountain wave events for fires.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Really am not a fan of entering a drought at the beginning of Fall.

If drought continues to increase, gonna become more and more increasingly concerned when we start getting mountain wave events for fires.

I think we have that niña/niño combo attributing to it currently 

[Carvers Gap]

IMHO, the total precip map(to date)above looks remarkably like Nino precip pattern maps, BUT displaced about 200-400 miles eastward.  I think I mentioned several months ago that modeling was signaling very dry weather for the middle and western portions of the forum...and that eastern areas should see more rain chances.  Right now, all of that is displaced eastward towards the EC.  The problem with drought is that it when it persists...it "calls" for more drought.  

The new CANSIPS is out, it looks to have sharply increasing precip.  Winter forecast is similar if slightly warmer...but looks fine.

The Euro Weeklies are bone dry for the forum area.  VERY worried about dry conditions right now.  Any wind event is big time trouble. 

Late winter, spring, and almost all of summer were nearly textbook El Nino precip patterns IMBY.  Lots of rain and cool weather.    I am not convinced of the Nina hangover for fall - it would be odd to have 4 months of El Nino(May through August) and have it revert back to a Nina hangover.  I am going to do some more digging.  My guess is that another driver is also in play in addition to SSTs.  Kicking around these ideas:  Texas heat dome nearly always pushes eastward...getting ready to transition to a much cooler pattern and the rains are about to return(this might be a blip for eastern areas)...this persists and the winter is colder than I originally thought as sometimes seasonal modeling(which is dry) is picking up on colder temps....just a fluctuation that we cannot predict or even fully explain at this point.

[Matthew70]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

IMHO, the total precip map(to date)above looks remarkably like Nino precip pattern maps, BUT displaced about 200-400 miles eastward.  I think I mentioned several months ago that modeling was signaling very dry weather for the middle and western portions of the forum...and that eastern areas should see more rain chance.  Right now, all of that is displaced eastward towards the EC.  The problem with drought is that it when it persists...it "calls" for more drought.  

The new CANSIPS is out, it looks to have sharply increasing precip.  Winter forecast is similar if slightly warmer...but looks fine.

The Euro Weeklies are bone dry for the forum area.  VERY worried about dry conditions right now.  Any wind event is big time trouble. 

Late winter, spring, and almost all of summer were nearly textbook El Nino precip patterns IMBY.  Lots of rain and cool weather.    I am not convinced of the Nina hangover for fall - it would be odd to have 4 months of El Nino(May through August) and have it revert back to a Nina hangover.  I am going to do some more digging.  My guess is that another driver is also in play in addition to SSTs.  Kicking around these ideas:  Texas heat dome nearly always pushes eastward...getting ready to transition to a much cooler pattern and the rains are about to return(this might be a blip for eastern areas)...this persists and the winter is colder than I originally though as sometimes seasonal modeling(which is dry) is picking up on colder temps....just a fluctuation that we cannot predict or even fully explain at this point.

The drought is definitely getting worse for a lot of the area.  With October being a usually exceptionally dry month. Add in the leaves falling & lower humidity spells concern & trouble. I am aerating & seeding my yard this week.  The temps will be absolutely perfect.  I will water the seed which means I can do it wo Mother Nature washing it away.  Still some rain showers would be nice.  I am watering the yard to soften it up.  We had about .50 this past week.  Settled the dust thankfully. Amazing how we went from wet to dry.  The temps & wx have been spectacular.  Watching my daughter play her soccer  games with the moon in the background the past week was beautiful. 

[MattPetrulli]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

IMHO, the total precip map(to date)above looks remarkably like Nino precip pattern maps, BUT displaced about 200-400 miles eastward.  I think I mentioned several months ago that modeling was signaling very dry weather for the middle and western portions of the forum...and that eastern areas should see more rain chance.  Right now, all of that is displaced eastward towards the EC.  The problem with drought is that it when it persists...it "calls" for more drought.  

The new CANSIPS is out, it looks to have sharply increasing precip.  Winter forecast is similar if slightly warmer...but looks fine.

The Euro Weeklies are bone dry for the forum area.  VERY worried about dry conditions right now.  Any wind event is big time trouble. 

Late winter, spring, and almost all of summer were nearly textbook El Nino precip patterns IMBY.  Lots of rain and cool weather.    I am not convinced of the Nina hangover for fall - it would be odd to have 4 months of El Nino(May through August) and have it revert back to a Nina hangover.  I am going to do some more digging.  My guess is that another driver is also in play in addition to SSTs.  Kicking around these ideas:  Texas heat dome nearly always pushes eastward...getting ready to transition to a much cooler pattern and the rains are about to return(this might be a blip for eastern areas)...this persists and the winter is colder than I originally though as sometimes seasonal modeling(which is dry) is picking up on colder temps....just a fluctuation that we cannot predict or even fully explain at this point.

Here's what makes me a little more concerned. While we were in an exceptional drought in 2016, we were not experiencing drought conditions when the Wears Valley fires occurred. 

Shows that wind is truly the biggest factor, but drought beginning at this time is just fuel to the fire no pun intended. Glad I moved out of Pigeon Forge into an area of Sevierville that isn't near the main mountains. 

[nrgjeff]

Yeah this sux (below). Hopefully we can snap out of it. I agree with @Carvers Gap that the Atmo assumed Nino state months ago. We are now in stubborn SER season. Trough next week looks dry, but that's also typical October.

Perhaps in November the STJ will become active. And if that means more cloudy days buy coffee futures, lol!

[Carvers Gap]

Sharply cooler looking CFSv2 (seasonal) today - no idea if right, but winter might get a head start if it is right.  I am still holding off on saying his is a pattern change(cooler temps, trough over the EC), but it sure looks like it.  

[Met1985]

51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sharply cooler looking CFSv2 (seasonal) today - no idea if right, but winter might get a head start if it is right.  I am still holding off on saying his is a pattern change(cooler temps, trough over the EC), but it sure looks like it.  

You talking about this month or next Carver?

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

You talking about this month or next Carver?

Seems to be d10-46 have cooled considerably.  Could just be normal ebb and flow of cold in modeling.  We saw that ebb and flow a 2-3 weeks ago, and then the warmth became more pervasive.  edit...but the cooler solutions are likely going to verify from 2-3 weeks ago. 

[Carvers Gap]

And I should add Met, I hate trying to interpret shoulder season modeling.  It is just so fickle.  That said. The cooling trend seems to be mid Oct to the end of December.  Again, HUGE grains of salt.  

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And I should add Met, I hate trying to interpret shoulder season modeling.  It is just so fickle.  That said. The cooling trend seems to be mid Oct to the end of December.  Again, HUGE grains of salt.  

El Nino Fall 2002-03 progressed similarly as I recall. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

El Nino Fall 2002-03 progressed similarly as I recall. 

Remind me, do we like that year?  LOL.

[Matthew70]

Well one thing is looking likely.  Dry conditions will persist.  Yes some light rain to settle the dust but that’s about all.  The temps will be nearly perfect.  My grass seed will love the temps. Just going to have to water myself. 

[John1122]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Remind me, do we like that year?  LOL.

Imby Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb were all BN. Around -3 for Nov, -2.5 Dec/Feb, -6 for January. Big snow event early December of around 6 inches. There was snow on the ground here from Mid-Jan all the way to Feb 1st. Two snow events here during those two weeks. 7 inches that caused a 4 day power outage for me and then another 3 or 4 inch event a few days later.  Below 0 temps followed the 7 inch snow. There were a couple more 2-3 inch events in February. 

March flipped and was +6. 

The QBO had been positive but falling. It went negative in December and slowly fell through winter. 

The Nino was a high end moderate. It peaked at +1.3 around November and started falling the rest of winter. 

[Carvers Gap]

Maybe frost on the horizon for the foothills?  MRX morning disco...

Behind the front, much cooler air will filter into the region
through the weekend. Some areas particularly in the higher terrain
will experience temperatures in the upper 30s Saturday morning. But
by Sunday morning, those low temperatures will dip into the lower to
mid 30s (higher terrain) to upper 30s and lower 40s across many
areas. Be mindful of patchy frost developing Sunday morning and
protect any plants that might be susceptible. The weekend max
temperatures will rise into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

 

[Itryatgolf70]

11 hours ago, John1122 said:

Imby Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb were all BN. Around -3 for Nov, -2.5 Dec/Feb, -6 for January. Big snow event early December of around 6 inches. There was snow on the ground here from Mid-Jan all the way to Feb 1st. Two snow events here during those two weeks. 7 inches that caused a 4 day power outage for me and then another 3 or 4 inch event a few days later.  Below 0 temps followed the 7 inch snow. There were a couple more 2-3 inch events in February. 

March flipped and was +6. 

The QBO had been positive but falling. It went negative in December and slowly fell through winter. 

The Nino was a high end moderate. It peaked at +1.3 around November and started falling the rest of winter. 

2002-2003 was decent winter. In my area we unfortunately didn't get many winter events. 

[Daniel Boone]

On 10/5/2023 at 1:34 AM, John1122 said:

Imby Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb were all BN. Around -3 for Nov, -2.5 Dec/Feb, -6 for January. Big snow event early December of around 6 inches. There was snow on the ground here from Mid-Jan all the way to Feb 1st. Two snow events here during those two weeks. 7 inches that caused a 4 day power outage for me and then another 3 or 4 inch event a few days later.  Below 0 temps followed the 7 inch snow. There were a couple more 2-3 inch events in February. 

March flipped and was +6. 

The QBO had been positive but falling. It went negative in December and slowly fell through winter. 

The Nino was a high end moderate. It peaked at +1.3 around November and started falling the rest of winter. 

Good Winter here as well. 32.4" Season Snowfall. 

[Carvers Gap]

The force is strong w/ the +PNA re: this afternoon's ensembles.

[Carvers Gap]

On 10/1/2023 at 11:01 AM, MattPetrulli said:

Really am not a fan of entering a drought at the beginning of Fall.

If drought continues to increase, gonna become more and more increasingly concerned when we start getting mountain wave events for fires.

Yeah, I hate to even discuss it.  I have alluded to it.  Fountain mentioned the NE TN mountains have had more rain than the valleys.  That is fortunate.  Worried about other areas as you note.  With temps cooling off, that is a HUGE plus.  Looks like first legit rain chances will be next Saturday.  At that point, maybe some minor relief is on the way in the long term.  What is crazy is LR modeling pretty much nailed the spigot being cut off.  Today's CPC 3-4 week forecast has normal to AN rainfall for that timeframe.

[Carvers Gap]

Both the CMC and GFS at 12z show what appears to be at the very least a relaxation in the current pattern if not a complete reversal - back to chilly temps.  Snow is on the 12z GFS for the mountains, and that set-up would likely get frozen precip into the foothills if that verified. 

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Both the CMC and GFS at 12z show what appears to be at the very least a relaxation in the current pattern if not a complete reversal - back to chilly temps.  Snow is on the 12z GFS for the mountains, and that set-up would likely get frozen precip into the foothills if that verified. 

Aluetian Low should be ongoing mainly,some signs its gonna get broke down as we head towards Halloween.Drought conditions should worsen the next couple weeks until it does.Really wanna see a more Western based Aluetian low as we get into Dec and especially into Jan,Jan could be more sliders down into Alabama,but a more Eastern could possibly mean severe not winter.But that is to far out to even speculate right now

[*Flash*]

Drought conditions aside (I'll take my quarter inch and run from 10/5/23), I'm diggin' this +PNA/-EPO pattern. Hopefully, we'll see a few weeks of this during actual winter. Despite September 2023 being the warmest since 2019 for BNA, still seems like fall is behaving itself so far in the early going. Outside the heat bubble, many outside locales have been right on top of average as opposed to slightly over. 

[jaxjagman]

7 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Drought conditions aside (I'll take my quarter inch and run from 10/5/23), I'm diggin' this +PNA/-EPO pattern. Hopefully, we'll see a few weeks of this during actual winter. Despite September 2023 being the warmest since 2019 for BNA, still seems like fall is behaving itself so far in the early going. Outside the heat bubble, many outside locales have been right on top of average as opposed to slightly over. 

Yeah guess we can say that was a bonus token with the rains recently.MJO is out of whack with Nino right now,pattern with the MJO you'd think there would be trough west  not east upcoming,maybe we will get a cold front that produces some rain before it breaks down,dunno

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GFS this morning is wild.

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GFS this morning is wild.

No kidding! Two big plunges of cold air and some heavy mountain snow.

[Carvers Gap]

I do believe the mountains have a decent chance of seeing snow above 5000' early next week on the GFS (12z and 18z).  Some upslope rainshowers in the mid 30s.  That often translates to frozen.