2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[John1122]

All mid to long term discussion is in met fall at this point. This should carry us until Nov 20th or so, when December/winter starts showing up on models.

Blah weather to begin fall, if the GFS is correct. Lingering heat that clings on like an unwelcome in-law on it. If the GFS is being it's normal, likely ridiculous self, we may be lucky. The Canadian says "what heat?" over the next 10 days.

[Matthew70]

Well we know the GFS is over calculating the heat.  We know the Canadian is over calculating the chill.  Somewhere in the middle which still is not fall! 

[John1122]

41 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Well we know the GFS is over calculating the heat.  We know the Canadian is over calculating the chill.  Somewhere in the middle which still is not fall! 

The Euro looks like it has 2-3 days of upper 80s to lower 90s, with maybe some mid 90s for Memphis. Much better than the GFS and it's 100-105 degree stuff. The Euro looks to have 3 or so days of the heat and then it breaks down a bit.

[John1122]

The GFS has backed down some on it's extreme heat, not surprisingly. It's still well AN though. The Euro also has some pretty good warmth. The Canadian is more content to throw out upper 80s/around 90ish temperatures vs the mid to upper 90s the other two are tossing out. At least the 103-106 degree stuff disappeared.

[Carvers Gap]

IDK, the GFS looks like it has some all time record highs between the 9th and 12th - 110 some locals.  Not sure I believe that though.  Looks like the model is dealing with pretty significant feedback issues regarding temps.

[fountainguy97]

[Carvers Gap]

You can almost take it to the bank....when heat builds over Texas, it is going to find its way into the TN Valley whether it is summer or winter.  It is coming east.  Just hoping the tropics reset the pattern.  There are some model solutions that bring a tropical storm back into the Virginias (maybe a ghost storm)?

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

IDK, the GFS looks like it has some all time record highs between the 9th and 12th - 110 some locals.  Not sure I believe that though.  Looks like the model is dealing with pretty significant feedback issues regarding temps.

It wasn't out to the finish when I had posted that.  I think it was at 222 or so. Either way, I'd feel comfortable betting my house that we aren't seeing 110+ in the forum area. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

It wasn't out to the finish when I had posted that.  I think it was at 222 or so. Either way, I'd feel comfortable betting my house that we aren't seeing 110+ in the forum area. 

The GFS has been TERRIBLE with over estimating temps - you have been 100% correct on that.  Your money is safe!!!   One thing I am watching is whether we get another coastal about that day8-12 range and it pulls down a bunch of cooler air.  The tropics are really playing havoc with modeling in the middle and long ranges.  I have seen a few outlier runs during the last 24 hours that pull the ridge back west - something to watch going forward.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

I’m definitely ready for fall weather. Tomorrow will be 79° but then low 90s for the foreseeable future. Wish I could change my username. 

[Matthew70]

I’m starting to get concerned with the endless possibilities of no rain for the foreseeable future.  From wet to dry.  That’s how it goes. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS and GEFS do present long term hope w/ the ridge retrograding into the West.  That is about 14 days out, and would effectively end summer here if legit, and produce an early fall pattern.  Still warm, but not fiery furnace hot.  That isn't the first run where that has shown up.  It would be about right to have a cool down then followed by one last transient ridge(typical second tropical peak stuff).....

[John1122]

It's approaching 3pm on a sunny August 31st and my AC unit hasn't kicked on today. That's hard to beat.  It was 57 this morning and it's 74.8 right now. 

[Carvers Gap]

77 here in Kingsport w/ Idalia funneling lots of cool air down the eastern seaboard.  Last day of August is a beaut.   We may end up a fraction AN for the month.  Daytime highs will finish slightly BN, but overnight lows have been warm and muggy on several occasions - creating slightly AN temps for the overall lows.  Either way.  Good run for August.  

[Itryatgolf70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS and GEFS do present long term hope w/ the ridge retrograding into the West.  That is about 14 days out, and would effectively end summer here if legit, and produce an early fall pattern.  Still warm, but not fiery furnace hot.  That isn't the first run where that has shown up.  It be about right to have a cool down then followed by one last transient ridge(typical second tropical peak 

Carver, go check out the CanSIPS mslp charts that were posted in the weather and forecasting discussion! Interesting so far

[*Flash*]

I'm definitely curious how the rest of the year will pan out temp wise given the timing of ENSO's peak. Perhaps we get a taste of fall late September/early-mid October before the torch comes back rest of the way. Personally, wouldn't mind the winter heat getting out of the way early a la December 2021 before a turn to much colder. 

Whatever the case, yesterday couldn't have been more fitting to end this summer. The last few days in particular not only brought in a refreshing air mass but ensured suburbs outside BNA would mean out under 80° for JJA. For many, this is the first time that has happened since 2014!

 

[*Flash*]

Looking at Moderate to Strong El Ninos since 1950-51. It's interesting how even the peak of the bell curve is from OND to DJF. While some of these winters were whiffs, others had plenty of memorable moments. While the sample size isn't that great, per this list, it sure seems like non-weak Niño's are like the 'Three True Outcomes' of baseball. In most seasons, you're going to either strike out or hit a home-run, while in others, you may get by with a base-loaded walk. The peak intensity and other teleconnections represent the uniques pitches you get within the box. 

[Carvers Gap]

19 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Carver, go check out the CanSIPS mslp charts that were posted in the weather and forecasting discussion! Interesting so far

Yep, good find.  The new, seasonal CANSIPS maps which came out today are a pretty big step towards a very warm early start to fall - torch for September and then a very slow, gradual decent back to normal by late December.  JFMA looks like money at 500 and on the surface.  Good to see that continue to be signaled by that model.  Best pattern seems signaled for the last of Jan through mid-March.  

Kind of looking at Flash's list above, I am a HUGE fan of 15-16 for NE TN.  NOT saying that is what is going to happen, I just like that analog year, because of how much it snowed IMBY.  I think we see El Nino maybe hold through summer, and  I think analogs which continue the Nino are most useful.

The El Nino analogs I am most interested in are the ones which have an extended bout of La Nina just prior.  You hear me reference SST gradient.  That is not my idea.  It is one of the guys in New England (Typhoon maybe).  That gradient between the Nino and the rest of the ocean needs to be sharp - not washed out.  I think we get that this year after the triple or quadruple dip Nina that we just had.    And add in a falling QBO to go with that.  

***Those analogs will be very few, but those are the ones we need IMHO.***

[Carvers Gap]

The 30mb QBO is now officially negative...

[*Flash*]

21 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep, good find.  The new, seasonal CANSIPS maps which came out today are a pretty big step towards a very warm early start to fall - torch for September and then a very slow, gradual decent back to normal by late December.  JFMA looks like money at 500 and on the surface.  Good to see that continue to be signaled by that model.  Best pattern seems signaled for the last of Jan through mid-March.  

Kind of looking at Flash's list above, I am a HUGE fan of 15-16 for NE TN.  NOT saying that is what is going to happen, I just like that analog year, because of how much it snowed IMBY.  I think we see El Nino maybe hold through summer, and  I think analogs which continue the Nino are most useful.

The El Nino analogs I am most interested in are the ones which have an extended bout of La Nina just prior.  You hear me reference SST gradient.  That is not my idea.  It is one of the guys in New England (Typhoon maybe).  That gradient between the Nino and the rest of the ocean needs to be sharp - not washed out.  I think we get that this year after the triple or quadruple dip Nina that we just had.    And add in a falling QBO to go with that.  

***Those analogs will be very few, but those are the ones we need IMHO.***

Ah, good call about the Nina prior analog. While I imagine there won't be many seasons to pull from, might as well use next winter to build the sample size. I'll need to follow up; however, I want to say the last time we had three straight Moderate to Strong Nina seasons was 1998-99 to 2000-01. 2001-02 was a dud but it set the table well for the following year. 

[*Flash*]

Nice to wake up to see the ECMWF retrograding the heat ridge westward (GFS has it too but a bit further east for my liking). Will a mid-month trough verify? I hope so! Regardless, September 2023 is looking less like a 2018 or 2019 repeat. I'll take it. 

[Matthew70]

59 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Nice to wake up to see the ECMWF retrograding the heat ridge westward (GFS has it too but a bit further east for my liking). Will a mid-month trough verify? I hope so! Regardless, September 2023 is looking less like a 2018 or 2019 repeat. I'll take it. 

I just hope some rain is thrown into the pattern.  It’s getting quiet dry. 

[*Flash*]

31 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I just hope some rain is thrown into the pattern.  It’s getting quiet dry. 

True. At least mowing frequency will decrease with time. #silverlinings

[Daniel Boone]

On 8/31/2023 at 10:48 AM, Matthew70 said:

I’m starting to get concerned with the endless possibilities of no rain for the foreseeable future.  From wet to dry.  That’s how it goes. 

Yeah, we'll really be hurting in the Lee, Wise and Scott County area's as much of this Region missed out on the abundant Rains during Summer. 

[Carvers Gap]

13 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Ah, good call about the Nina prior analog. While I imagine there won't be many seasons to pull from, might as well use next winter to build the sample size. I'll need to follow up; however, I want to say the last time we had three straight Moderate to Strong Nina seasons was 1998-99 to 2000-01. 2001-02 was a dud but it set the table well for the following year. 

Yeah, it should set the stage for some decent winters in the future.  Agree.  

[fountainguy97]

Looks like a warm week in the 80s and a few touches of 90 here and there but I see a lot of greens (50s) on the gfs on tidbits going forward!

[Matthew70]

Just a week ago it was supposed to be lower to mid 90’s here.  Really glad to see the change in temps.  Now if we can get some rain.  

[John1122]

Been low to mid 80s here over the weekend. Another heatwave that didn't materialize imby.  It's currently sunny and 80. 

[Carvers Gap]

Has summer just ended?  That is the question that I have after looking at modeling during the past couple of days.  Those "few straggler runs" from a few days ago which depicted the trough heading West have become more numerous.  BN temps are become more prominent with each passing day beginning by Sat/Sun this weekend.   

[Matthew70]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Has summer just ended?  That is the question that I have after looking at modeling during the past couple of days.  Those "few straggler runs" from a few days ago which depicted the trough heading West have become more numerous.  BN temps are become more prominent with each passing day beginning by Sat/Sun this weekend.   

I am kinda in shock.  Just a few days ago it was supposed to be lower to mid 90’s here. I’m definitely not complaining.  Definitely could use some rain here in mid TN. Overall the days have been somewhat tolerable this holiday weekend.  The evenings actually have been quite nice.  Starting to get landscaping ready to plant new shrubs after removing ones that last winter killed. Yard is pretty much stalled in growing. I’m hoping winter is a surprise like this summer has been.  This has been overall in my opinion a great summer.