September 2023

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro wet but gone by Friday afternoon

 

Yeah we probably have some wet weather coming in for Thursday into Friday, but hopefully it'll be out of the way in time for the weekend. Euro and GFS have a dry weekend. CMC dries it out for late Saturday and Sunday. Right now I would lean towards a dry Saturday, but the models have been going back and forth. It's questionable right now. 

[MANDA]

Getting closer little by little and day by day.

[the_other_guy]

it feels like November out. Raw. Damp right to the bone. 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

it feels like November out. Raw. Damp right to the bone. 

Yeah, Saturday was the 4th coldest high temperature departure of the year so far at HPN.  Anytime we get at least -10 for high or low departure it really stands out these days. 
 

Data for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature Departure
2023-02-04	-16.1
2023-02-25	-15.3
2023-04-29	-14.4
2023-09-23	-12.7
2023-05-03	-10.7
2023-08-24	-10.2
2023-04-28	-10.1
2023-05-04	-10.0

 

[Rtd208]

A good portion of the NYC metro area is pretty water logged with all the recent rain we have had. Something to consider going forward if we get more storms/heavy rainfall especially in the short and medium range.

[wdrag]

More coming...maybe a stripe of 1/4-1/2" between now and Noon Tuesday parts of CT, LI, NJ.  FFG has decreased to generally 1.5-2" in 6 hours se NYS, portions of interior CT and NNJ. So that won't improve- dry out for a while. 

Additionally at least two models (18z-GFS and 12z EC have spotty 2-3" the Night-Fri) at the nose of the inverted trough. Interesting through Friday for wind/rain/(coastal flood episodes at the higher of the daily high tide cycles in NJ) as well spotty minor river flooding CT/NYS.

 

posted 634P/25

 

[JerseyWx]

Approaching 2.5" here.  Really hoping the rain Friday clears out early so we get a nice weekend.  Been a miserable three days and it's not like tomorrow is looking nice either.

[qg_omega]

Not sure why there is talk of a dry pattern, looks like rain every few days

[donsutherland1]

Ophelia's remaining showers will depart tomorrow. Afterward, drier air will return to the region. Additional rain is possible on Friday.

In the wake of Ophelia, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up near normal to somewhat warmer than normal. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern will likely develop in eastern North America as October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around September 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -5.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.054 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

[SRRTA22]

@nycwinter I thought we'd be in one hoodie territory by now, not two! 

It feels good to have an old school fall again (even if it's short lived and we torch October) 

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of September are averaging   62degs.(57/66) or -4.

Month to date is   71.4[+1.2].     September should end at   69.8[+0.5].

Reached 63 here yesterday at 1:30pm.

Today:   58-63, wind ne.-breezy, m. cloudy, 55 tomorrow AM.

59*(90%RH) here at 7am{was 58* at midnight}.     60* at 9am.     61* at Noon.

[EastonSN+]

I love the fact that we are heading into an El nino winter, however as we all know we have had some real furnace el ninos as well. 

One question I have is how does this El nino look CURRENTLY compared to ninos of the past?

I believe 1997 (or 1998) was a strong El nino, however it was one rain storm after another. The constant rain kept overall temps a bit cool otherwise who knows how warm it would have been.

Looking at last winter, the RNA overruled a decent block. Also, and I am guessing here, I believe the blocking placement allowed high pressures to move east when storms "arrived". I believe more of a ride east of us would have helped lock in high pressure.

History has a way repeating, just hope it's more 95/1996 than 1997.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Interesting radar over nyc area, simultaneously have east and west moving showers. 

[SACRUS]

 

58 / 54 and total of 4.19 since Friday - coming on 100 straight hours of mostly cloudy weather and likely get to 120 before sun returns or at least partially on Wed for a few hours.  Hung up pattern keeping it cloudy, misty and very unpleasant (well for most that is).  Flow comes around a to the NW/W by Mon 10/2 - Wed (10/14) but still see signs pf onshore and potential cut offs.  Overall warmer with a day or two of stronger warmth.  Still think we ride the wet side as the flow is still botteled up into the EC.  

 

 

[Stormlover74]

I turned the heat on 

[guinness77]

Literally couldn’t have picked a worse week to be off. This weather is frustrating. 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Interesting radar over nyc area, simultaneously have east and west moving showers. 

The center of the low that once was Ophelia is now undiscernable, at least via radar or satellite.  The last I saw, it was exiting the Jersey Coast, somewhere around Belmar?  Obviously it is not going anywhere too fast.

[nycwinter]

hoodie and a jacket wearing season last few days..

[lee59]

This will be the 12th straight day of below normal temperatures at Central Park and probably all other nearby stations but I have not checked.

[lee59]

10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This will be the 12th straight day of below normal temperatures at Central Park and probably all other nearby stations but I have not checked.

Looking further it is 12 for 12 for Central Park and Islip and Bridgeport. Newark and Kennedy will be 10 of 12 and LaGuardia (had one day that was even) so 11 of 12.

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of Ophelia, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up near normal to somewhat warmer than normal. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern will likely develop in eastern North America as October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around September 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -6.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.054 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

[qg_omega]

Freezing out

[Rjay]

50s

[MJO812]

59

[doncat]

Small diurnal 59/56 split today. 

[wdrag]

On 9/24/2023 at 9:30 AM, wdrag said:

Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS

Just re-running this post from 9/24. Other than the 00z/27 NAM,  this looks to be correct for what seems like a pretty big event Friday in the NYC subforum, particularly se NYS/CT/LI/coastal NJ with a potential for mdt coastal flooding at the highest of the high tide cycles, as well widespread 1/4-3" of rain with isolated 5'?  00z/27 RDPS has 6". Best axis of max rainfall uncertain but it looks like PA/Catskills least likely for R+... nose of the inverted trough and organizing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast the culprits. EPS from 18z/26 is even larger than what am showing from last Saturday. 

Also, it still seems to me that we're in general onshore flow here in the NYC subforum, especially NJ/LI through the first week of October, although I could see a day of north or north-northwest. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

9/26 Records

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 90 (2007)
NYC: 91 (1970)
LGA: 90 (2007)


Lows:

 

EWR: 40 (1940)
NYC: 42 (1940)
LGA: 44 (1947)

 

Historical:

 

1936 - Denver, CO, was buried under 21.3 inches of snow, 19.4 inches of which fell in 24 hours. The heavy wet snow snapped trees and wires causing seven million dollars damage. (26th-27th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1936:  A forest fire burned several miles east of the town of Brandon, Oregon. The fire was far enough away that residents were not particularly worried. A sudden shift in the winds drove the flames westward and through town. The fire, caused by summer drought and fueled by the abundant Gorse Weed found in many of the empty spaces between buildings in Bandon, caused so much destruction that only a handful of structures were left standing when the fire finally died down.

1950 - Residents of the northeastern U.S. observed a blue sun and a blue moon, caused by forest fires in British Columbia. (David Ludlum)

1963 - San Diego, CA, reached an all-time record high of 111 degrees. Los Angeles hit 1S09 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Santa Ana winds brought fires to Los Angeles County, and to points south and east. Half a million acres were consumed by the fires, as were 1000 structures. Twenty firemen were injured. (25th-29th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1971: Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaken tropical cyclones by flying aircraft into them and seeding with silver iodide. The project was run by the United States Government from 1962 to 1983. Hurricane Ginger in 1971 was the last hurricane Project Stormfury seeded.

1979 - In the midst of a hot September for Death Valley, California, the afternoon high was 104 degrees for the second of three days, the coolest afternoon highs for the month. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Freezing temperatures were reported in the Northern and Central Appalachians, and the Upper Ohio Valley. The morning low of 27 degrees at Concord NH tied their record for the date. Temperatures soared into the 90s in South Dakota. Pierre SD reported an afternoon high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across Florida. Afternoon highs of 92 degrees at Apalachicola and 95 degrees at Fort Myers were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Rain spread from the southeastern states across New England overnight. Cape Hatteras NC reported measurable rainfall for the fourteenth straight day, with 15.51 inches of rain recorded during that two week period. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 108 degrees, and a record 134 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Afternoon temperatures were only in the 40s over parts of northwest Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1998: There were four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893. 

2004 - After making its infamous loop east of the Bahamas, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall the night of September 26th, 2004. Jeanne came ashore as a major category 3 hurricane just a few miles away from where Hurricane Frances made landfall a few weeks before. Jeanne produced extensive damage along the east central Florida coast from Volusia County south to Martin County. The highest wind gusts occurred over extreme Southern Brevard County as well as Indian River County with 110 - 120 mph estimates at the peak of the storm. (NWS, Melbourne, FL)

[Stormlover74]

Ukie goes bonkers for Friday and Saturday sw of NYC 

[Rtd208]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Just re-running this post from 9/24. Other than the 00z/27 NAM,  this looks to be correct for what seems like a pretty big event Friday in the NYC subforum, particularly se NYS/CT/LI/coastal NJ with a potential for mdt coastal flooding at the highest of the high tide cycles, as well widespread 1/4-3" of rain with isolated 5'?  00z/27 RDPS has 6". Best axis of max rainfall uncertain but it looks like PA/Catskills least likely for R+... nose of the inverted trough and organizing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast the culprits. EPS from 18z/26 is even larger than what am showing from last Saturday. 

Also, it still seems to me that we're in general onshore flow here in the NYC subforum, especially NJ/LI through the first week of October, although I could see a day of north or north-northwest. 

 

Depending what the models show today maybe it's time for a separate storm specific thread? The 00z UKMET was certainly interesting.

[dmillz25]

Down to 51 here