September 2023

[bluewave]

Even with the closer to average last week against the warmer climate normals, the first 3 weeks of September have still finished top 5 warmest with widespread +3 to +5 departures. 
 

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

 

[SACRUS]

 

65 / 58 partly cloudy.    Clouds building and rolling on in this afternoon.  9/23 - 9/26 looks rather wet and unsettled.  3 - 6 inches of rain. Overall estranged upper level into the east ridge and cut offs / stagnant flow into early October wet.  Perhaps some places to 10 inches of rain by Oct 2nd. 

 Beyond there morph into a more sustained overall warmer pattern.  

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1970)
NYC: 95 (1914)
LGA: 93 (1970)


Lows:

EWR: 44 (1997)
NYC: 41 (1904)
LGA:47 (1962)

Historical:

 

1890 - A severe hailstorm struck Strawberry, AZ. Fives days after the storm hail still lay in drifts 12 to 18 inches deep. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - Des Moines, IA, experienced their earliest freeze of record. (The Weather Channel)

1961 - Hurricane Esther made a near complete circle south of Cape Cod. The hurricane then passed over Cape Cod and hit Maine. Its energy was largely spent over the North Atlantic Ocean, however, heavy rains over Maine resulted in widespread local flooding of cellars, low roads, and underpasses. (David Ludlum)

1983 - Forty-one cities reported record cold temperatures during the morning. Houston, TX, hit 50 degrees, and Williston ND plunged to 19 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Hurricane Emily, the first hurricane to roam the Carribean in nearly six years, made landfall over the Dominican Republic late in the day, packing 125 mph winds. Emily killed three persons and caused thirty million dollars damage. A record high of 92 degrees at Miami FL was their fifth in a row. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - An early morning thunderstorm produced baseball size hail at Plainview, in Hale County TX. Late in the evening more thunderstorms in the Southern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Plainview TX and Crosby TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo quickly lost strength over South Carolina, but still was a tropical storm as it crossed into North Carolina, just west of Charlotte, at about 7 AM. Winds around Charlotte reached 69 mph, with gusts to 99 mph. Eighty percent of the power was knocked out to Charlotte and Mecklenburg County. Property damage in North Carolina was 210 million dollars, and damage to crops was 97 million dollars. The strongest storm surge occurred along the southern coast shortly after midnight, reaching nine feet above sea level at ocean Isle and Sunset Beach. Hugo killed one person and injured fifteen others in North Carolina. Strong northwesterly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the north central U.S., in time for the official start of autumn, at 8" 20 PM (CDT). Squalls produced light snow in northern Wisconsin. Winds in Wisconsin gusted to 52 mph at Rhinelander. (Storm Data) (The Nati

2005 - For the first time in the historical record, two hurricanes reached category-5 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico in a single season as Hurricane Rita intensified before making landfall (Katrina and Rita).

 

2006: The tristate area of Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky was struck by the worst tornado outbreak in the recorded history during the month of September. One supercell produced a long-track F4 tornado across southeastern Missouri into southwestern Illinois. This tornado traveled 27.5 miles.

[forkyfork]

10 hours ago, psv88 said:

Is it though?

central park lol

[Big Jims Videos]

That is a rough looking long range on some of the models this afternoon. Constant battering onshore flow and storms.  Beaches are going to be hurting.  Next weekend will have the highest lunar tides of the year.  

[mob1]

[the_other_guy]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even with the closer to average last week against the warmer climate normals, the first 3 weeks of September have still finished top 5 warmest with widespread +3 to +5 departures. 
 

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

 

Wasnt it 90+ for several days to start the month? When you start +15, even getting to normal is going to take a miracle

[donsutherland1]

Ophelia will bring a significant rainfall to the region late tonight into Sunday. Eastern sections will be in line for the heaviest rainfall. A general 1"-3" of rainfall is likely. Local amounts of 4" are possible.

Gusty winds and rough surf will impact the Jersey Shore, Connecticut Shore, and Long Island. Coastal flooding is likely at high tide. Temperatures will hold mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s tomorrow and lower to middle 60s on Sunday.

In the wake of the storm, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up somewhat warmer than normal, but noticeably cooler than had been the case on the guidance even a few days ago. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as September concludes and October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -19.37 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.223 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal).

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Wasnt it 90+ for several days to start the month? When you start +15, even getting to normal is going to take a miracle

The 2nd week was pretty warm also with mid 80s several days to low 90s one day. We didn’t get our first slightly cooler departure day until the 15th.

[MJO812]

60s forecasted all next week

Beautiful 

[IrishRob17]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

60s forecasted all next week

Beautiful 

Getting close to hoodie weather 

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of September are averaging   63degs.(56/69) or -3.

Month to date is  72.7[+2.0].     September should end at  70.1[+0.8].

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today:   60-64, wind ne.-gusty to 35+, Rain till at least 4am tomorrow, 59.    

GFS is under an inch for the event.    EURO/CMC are 2"-3".

61*(78%RH) here at 7am-Rain.     60* at 9am.     59* at 11am.     61* at Noon.     61* all day and still is at 7pm.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The last 8 days of September are averaging   63degs.(56/69) or -3.

Month to date is  72.7[+2.0].     September should end at  70.1[+0.8].

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today:   60-64, wind ne.-gusty to 35+, Rain till at least 4am tomorrow, 59.    

GFS is under an inch for the event.    EURO/CMC are 2"-3".

61*(78%RH) here at 7am-Rain.

The wet foliage this month at the ASOS is really keeping those departures artificially low. Stations will need to hold  +1.8 to +2.0 to qualify for a top 10 warmest. So relatively small departures are all that’s needed with the jump in the 91-20 climate normals. 
 

EWR…+3.9

LGA….+2.3

NYC….+2.0

JFK…..+2.9

HPN…..+3.4

BDR……+2.2

HVN…..+5.2

ISP……..+3.3

PHL…….+3.3

POU…….+3.1

[MJO812]

Hoodie weather!

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The wet foliage this month at the ASOS is really keeping those departures artificially low. Stations will need to hold  +1.8 to +2.0 to qualify for a top 10 warmest. So relatively small departures are all that’s needed with the jump in the 91-20 climate normals. 
 

EWR…+3.9

LGA….+2.3

NYC….+2.0

JFK…..+2.9

HPN…..+3.4

BDR……+2.2

HVN…..+5.2

ISP……..+3.3

PHL…….+3.3

POU…….+3.1

HVN needs to be checked…looks too warm 

[SnoSki14]

We'll sort of be artificially cool despite a very warm pattern aloft because of how the highs are setting up. 

Tons of onshore flow, precip & clouds will keep highs several degrees below normal. But this is not a fall pattern. Lows aren't even sniffing 40s anywhere anytime soon. 

[wdrag]

Easterly gradient and tidal flooding Thursday Sep 28-Sunday Oct 1.  Multiple tide cycles have a chance of minor coastal flooding, with moderate possible on one or two cycles as tides runs high in this time frame. Modeling is trying to develop low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast with a fairly strong high over New England. Could be of future interest for tides/gale/rain for NJ/LI? 

 

 

[SACRUS]

9/22

 

 

EWR: 74
PHL: 74
JFK: 73
LGA: 72
ISP: 72
New Bnswck: 72
TEB: 72
ACY: 71
NYC: 71
TTN: 71
BLM: 69

 

 

[SACRUS]

57 / 56 and 0.40 in the bucket thru 1000.   Ophelia making it feel murky  / wet and grey for the next few days.  Atlantic ridge and ridge into Canada keeping us caught underneath and slow stuck up pattern which should mean near normal and wet through the end of the month.  Cut off lows and easterly fetch before we transition into a warmer overall pattern with flow going more NW/Wrsly into early October.  Euro builds ridge into the Ohio valley later in the run, seasonal tendency was for that to corrrect towards MS or TX - we'll see if that lingers.

 

Perhaps some of that clearing into the DelMarva Dry slot works its way up later today to see a hint of sunshine.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1970)
NYC: 97 (1895) - highest late season heatwave
LGA: 93 (1970)

Lows:

EWR: 40 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1947)
LGA: 42 (1947)

 

Historical:

 

 

1722: La Nouvelle-Orléans (New Orleans) was founded May 7, 1718, by the French Mississippi Company, under the direction of Jean-Baptiste Le Moyne de Bienville, on land inhabited by the Chitimacha. Four years later, a hurricane destroys nearly every building in the village, including the only church and hospital.

1815 - One of the greatest hurricanes to strike New England made landfall at Long Island and crossed Massachusetts and New Hampshire. It was the worst tempest in nearly two hundred years, equal to the hurricane which struck in 1938, and one of a series of severe summer and autumn storms to affect shipping lanes that year. (David Ludlum)

1904 - The temperature at Charlotteburg, NJ, dipped to 23 degrees, the coldest reading of record for so early in the autumn for the state. (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: On September 22, Hurricane Eloise intensified to attain Category 2 strength, and became a major hurricane of Category 3 status shortly after that as it turned towards the northeast. Several ships penetrated the storm's center during its passage through the Gulf. Hurricane Eloise continued to strengthen until it reached its peak winds of 125 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of about 955 mbar. It moved ashore along the Florida Panhandle near Panama City on September 23.

1983 - A thunderstorm downburst caused a timber blowdown in the Kaibab National Forest north of the Grand Canyon. Two hundred acres were completely destroyed, and scattered destruction occurred across another 3300 acres. Many trees were snapped off 15 to 30 feet above ground level. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Autumn began on a rather pleasant note for much of the nation. Showers and thunderstorms were confined to Florida and the southwestern deserts. Warm weather continued in the western U.S., and began to spread into the Great Plains Region, but even in the southwestern deserts readings remained below 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the south central U.S. produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail near Noble and Enterprise, and baseball size hail at Lequire and Kinta. A tornado near Noble OK destroyed a mobile home injuring one person. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Seventeen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Devils Lake ND with a reading of 22 degrees. Jackson KY reported a record low of 41 degrees during the late afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold air into the central and northeastern U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Indianapolis IND. Winds along the cold front gusted to 65 mph at Norfolk VA, and thunderstorms along the cold front deluged Roseland NJ with 2.25 inches of rain in one hour. The temperature at Richmond VA plunged from 84 degrees to 54 degrees in two hours. Snow and sleet was reported at Binghamton NY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2005 - Hurricane Rita reached the Texas/Louisiana border area near Sabine Pass as a category-3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A storm surge of at least 15 feet flooded parts of Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes, where sugar cane crop losses were estimated near $300 million. An 8-foot storm surge in New Orleans overtopped the provisionally-repaired levees (from Hurricane Katrina damage) and caused additional flooding. A total of 10 fatalities were reported, and preliminary damage estimates ranged between $4-5 billion.

[CIK62]

GFS returns to way AN start to October and no rain.      Fickle Fickle Little GFS---How I Wonder Why You're An Ass.     That's a good +7.

 

[NJwx85]

18z GFS has multiple days in the low to mid 80’s for highs the first week of October.

[Jacob brooklyn]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

18z GFS has multiple days in the low to mid 80’s for highs the first week of October.

Say it ain't so

[donsutherland1]

Ophelia will continue to bring rain to the region into tomorrow. A general 1"-3" storm total rainfall is likely. Local amounts of 4" are possible.

Through 8 pm, rainfall amounts include:

Atlantic City: 3.11" (old record: 1.12", 1975)
Baltimore: 1.19"
Bridgeport: 0.09"
Islip: 0.27"
New York City: 0.90"
Newark: 0.82"
Philadelphia: 1.05"
Richmond: 2.43" (old record: 2.08", 1975)
Washington, DC: 1.35"
Wilmington, DE: 1.18"

Down South, Miami's record 56-day streak of 90° or above temperatures ended. The old record of 44 days was set during July 10-through August 22, 2011.

Gusty winds and rough surf will continue to impact the Jersey Shore, Connecticut Shore, and Long Island. Coastal flooding is likely at high tide. Temperatures will hold mainly in the lower to middle 60s tomorrow.

In the wake of the storm, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up somewhat warmer than normal, but noticeably cooler than had been the case on the guidance even a few days ago. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as September concludes and October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -13.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.237 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.8° (0.6° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of September are averaging   61degs.(56/65) or -5.

Month to date is   72.2[+1.7].     September should end at   69.5[+0.2].

Reached 63 here yesterday at midnight(actually 63 all night).

GFS has 3" on Sun./Mon./Tues.

63*(99%RH) here at 7am-Rain.     64* at 9am.       Reached 68* at 1:30pm.      66* at 3pm.     64* at 7pm.

[wdrag]

Following up on the 748AM Saturday post above: NJ coast is possibly in a period of a two week repeated tidal flooding-serious beach erosion in spots, during the highest daily tide cycles.  More on that in an updated post here or separate new topic post coming around 9A which will include my 60-70% expectation of gale-wind-rain NYC subforum between Thu the 28th and Sunday Oct 1. Timing uncertain but my confidence is increasing despite model disagreement. If this gale occurs for NJ coast, it will be a more serious damage event than the current Ophelia event.  

Also, per modeled upper air weakness this is not the last of the potential for a tropical system to the mid Atlantic coast in early-mid October, beyond whatever possible hybrid might occur Sep 30-Oct 1.

[mob1]

We'll see if Ophelia's remnant low does indeed regenerate a bit to give parts of our region flooding rains. Models have hinted at it on and off, but for now it looks like a long shot. 

[SnoSki14]

Radar doesn't look so great for the region but showers could develop later. 

[bluewave]

On 9/23/2023 at 7:32 AM, psv88 said:

HVN needs to be checked…looks too warm 

It’s been really warm here this month. There are a number of stations in New England that are still close to +5. The upper 70s dew points earlier this month we’re off the charts for this part of the country.

 

[thunderbolt]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been really warm here this month. There are a number of stations in New England that are still close to +5. The upper 70s dew points earlier this month we’re off the charts for this part of the country.

 

https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705905438200410159?s=42&t=9oYN55kJQkQ18l6qbtT9mw