September 2023

[nycwinter]

euro and all the models are a joke 24 hours  ago it was over now the opposite..

[Rtd208]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like Euro went in this direction too

Also pretty remarkable how our supposed endless summer just sort of ended. Looks quite cool (highs at least) moving forward. 

It wouldn't surprise me if the models continue to come in a bit wetter. Widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts look like a good bet. Some higher amounts up to 5-6" would also not surprise me. Considering how much rain some areas have had recently flooding is going to be a concern so I would expect the NWS to eventually issue flood watches. 

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It wouldn't surprise me if the models continue to come in a bit wetter. Widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts look like a good bet. Some higher amounts up to 5-6" would also not surprise me. Considering how much rain some areas have had recently flooding is going to be a concern so I would expect the NWS to eventually issue flood watches. 

There will likely be a tropical connection too so I agree on locally much higher amounts. I think we need another full day of model runs before we know exactly what will happen. 

[Allsnow]

[Rtd208]

[bluewave]

Models starting to converge on the wetter coastal hugger tucked in track. The CMC came east and the Euro west. So a compromise of about 65% of what CMC had and about 35% Euro. So two swings and a miss so far from the Euro with tropical tracks. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   63degs.(58/68) or -3.

Gone are the 80's for October as GFS  struggles with 75 the next 16 days now.

3" still possible through 'Saturday>>> Monday AM' period.

Reached 79 here yesterday at 5:30pm.

Today:   72-75, wind ne., few clouds, 60 tomorrow AM.

61*/64%RH) here at 7am.     63* at 9am.     67* at Noon.      73* at 3pm.      76* at 4pm.     Reached 77* at 5pm.

[wdrag]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models starting to converge on the wetter coastal hugger tucked in track. The CMC came east and the Euro west. So a compromise of about 65% of what CMC had and about 35% Euro. So two swings and a miss so far from the Euro with tropical tracks. 

Checked a few of this pages comments and agreed... imo, EC-GFS may not be doing too well in the longer ranges with qpf here in the NYC subforum with overall GEPS seeming to be better allowing soaker 1"+ up to I90. Not a done deal north of I84 but sure looks like a somewhat nasty 5-7 day period Sat 23rd-Fri 29th.  Spot 4-6" NJ-LI/e PA seem probable. Rainouts of MLB games possible NYC, PHL, DCA meaning some might be doubled up on a day or not played at all depending on MLB impacts.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Checked a few of this pages comments and agreed... imo, EC-GFS may not be doing too well in the longer ranges with qpf here in the NYC subforum with overall GEPS seeming to be better allowing soaker 1"+ up to I90. Not a done deal north of I84 but sure looks like a somewhat nasty 5-7 day period Sat 23rd-Fri 29th.  Spot 4-6" NJ-LI/e PA seem probable. Rainouts of MLB games possible NYC, PHL, DCA meaning some might be doubled up on a day or not played at all depending on MLB impacts.

I know you have been a supporter of having the CMC on your side when making a forecast. I would have to say the model is the most Improved since recent upgrades. I wish we had a east coast storm statistical storm tracker which would score the models solely on forecasting the most accurate track. These Northern Hemispheric skill scores don’t tell us much about which model get our storm tracks right. But the skill on a hemispheric scale is great for temperature and teleconnection forecasts. 

[guinness77]

You guys would know better than me…NWS has rain starting by 8am on Saturday…looking at the models, this seems to be a little early on the predictions, no? 

[kat5hurricane]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like Euro went in this direction too

Also pretty remarkable how our supposed endless summer just sort of ended. Looks quite cool (highs at least) moving forward. 

It wasn't even an endless summer anyway in terms of heat/above normal temps. Outside of a hot stretch during Labor Day week, the last month has been quite comfortable and actually fall-like in the morning a lot of days. One of the best late summer stretches in years at least for those of us who prefer not to have swamp ass.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

It wasn't even an endless summer anyway in terms of heat/above normal temps. Outside of a hot stretch during Labor Day week, the last month has been quite comfortable and actually fall-like in the morning a lot of days. One of the best late summer stretches in years.

That was a solid 7+ days of record setting temperatures that will skew the month well above normal (+2) against the warmer averages. 

And in the city lows are still struggling to drop below 60 so yes its been a very warm stretch. A few cooler days won't change that. 

[Stormlover74]

Euro going with the wetter Sunday option

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

You guys would know better than me…NWS has rain starting by 8am on Saturday…looking at the models, this seems to be a little early on the predictions, no? 

Models have sped up the timing and as stated above, there's a 2nd piece now for Sunday showing up.   

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That was a solid 7+ days of record setting temperatures that will skew the month well above normal (+2) against the warmer averages. 

And in the city lows are still struggling to drop below 60 so yes its been a very warm stretch. A few cooler days won't change that. 

The other 4 boroughs besides Queens have dipped below 60.

[steve392]

Going to have some coastal flooding and beach erosion with this storm.  

[steve392]

A nice chilly 51 degree's this morning at work.

[kat5hurricane]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That was a solid 7+ days of record setting temperatures that will skew the month well above normal (+2) against the warmer averages. 

And in the city lows are still struggling to drop below 60 so yes its been a very warm stretch. A few cooler days won't change that. 

I live not far from LaGuardia which is considered one of the hot spots for morning lows and there have been many cool mornings, not just a few cool days. August had many beautiful, low humidity days.

It was the Labor Day week stretch with the real hot days and that's been it for the most part for REAL summer weather in the last 4-5 weeks. Pretty close to normal temps but with much lower humidity than we've been accustomed to in recent years.

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

It wasn't even an endless summer anyway in terms of heat/above normal temps. Outside of a hot stretch during Labor Day week, the last month has been quite comfortable and actually fall-like in the morning a lot of days. One of the best late summer stretches in years at least for those of us who prefer not to have swamp ass.

The first two weeks of the month were endless summer as they they were one of the warmest on record. Since the 15th we have been pretty close to average against the warmer 91-20 climate normals. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14	Missing Count
1	1961-09-14	81.4	0
2	2023-09-14	79.0	0
3	1983-09-14	77.2	0
4	2015-09-14	76.9	0
5	1947-09-14	76.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14	Missing Count
1	1961-09-14	77.8	0
2	1983-09-14	74.6	0
3	2023-09-14	74.5	0
4	2015-09-14	73.7	0
5	2016-09-14	72.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14	Missing Count
1	2023-09-14	75.9	0
2	1983-09-14	74.1	0
3	2015-09-14	73.9	0
4	1980-09-14	73.1	0
5	2016-09-14	72.7	0

[kat5hurricane]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first two weeks of the month were endless summer as they they were one of the warmest on record. Since the 15th we have been pretty close to average against the warmer 91-20 climate normals. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14	Missing Count
1	1961-09-14	81.4	0
2	2023-09-14	79.0	0
3	1983-09-14	77.2	0
4	2015-09-14	76.9	0
5	1947-09-14	76.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14	Missing Count
1	1961-09-14	77.8	0
2	1983-09-14	74.6	0
3	2023-09-14	74.5	0
4	2015-09-14	73.7	0
5	2016-09-14	72.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14	Missing Count
1	2023-09-14	75.9	0
2	1983-09-14	74.1	0
3	2015-09-14	73.9	0
4	1980-09-14	73.1	0
5	2016-09-14	72.7	0

Yes but that was skewed heavily by Labor Day week being near record breaking warmth. The 2nd week of September and beyond was back closer to normal where it's been highs in the 70s for the most part.

We're also in a climate now where "old normal" temps feel relatively cool because it's been so hot, especially due to the humidity, in recent years.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Yes but that was skewed heavily by Labor Day week being near record breaking warmth. The 2nd week of September and beyond was back closer to normal where it's been highs in the 70s for the most part.

We're also in a climate now where "old normal" temps feel relatively cool because it's been so hot, especially due to the humidity, in recent years.

The 2nd week of the month was still pretty warm. But in our new warmer climate wasn’t as extreme as week 1.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Avg Temperature Departure
2023-09-01	79	60	-4.3
2023-09-02	83	59	-2.6
2023-09-03	92	66	5.7
2023-09-04	93	72	9.4
2023-09-05	95	78	13.7
2023-09-06	97	77	14.5
2023-09-07	96	76	13.8
2023-09-08	92	73	10.5
2023-09-09	88	73	8.9
2023-09-10	81	70	4.2
2023-09-11	85	72	7.5
2023-09-12	87	69	7.3
2023-09-13	83	71	6.7
2023-09-14	81	63	2.0
2023-09-15	74	58	-3.6
2023-09-16	79	60	0.2
2023-09-17	79	56	-1.4
2023-09-18	70	62	-2.5
2023-09-19	77	59	-0.1
2023-09-20	78	58	0.3

[SACRUS]

 

62 / 50 off a low of 50.  Last mainly clear and dry day for a bit.  Pattern is kind of stuck up into the east the Atlantic ridge is anchored east of Bermuda acting to slow any front and forcing cut off / ULL under the ridge. Whats it mean - a likely very wet period the next week to 10 days before overall warmer period sets into early October.  Wouldnt shock me to see 5 - 10 inches of rain 9/23 - 10/1 in spots.  Check those gutters, drains, sump pumps and streets.

 

Here's the initiation of the ST system off the old frontal boundary east of Georgia

 

 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Nice cool low of 48 this AM. I’ve been running about 6-7 degrees below forecasted lows for the TR station, where I am tucked into the Manchester border of TR radiates extremely well and is the northern edge of the pine lands. 

[TheClimateChanger]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 2nd week of the month was still pretty warm. But in our new warmer climate wasn’t as extreme as week 1.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Avg Temperature Departure
2023-09-01	79	60	-4.3
2023-09-02	83	59	-2.6
2023-09-03	92	66	5.7
2023-09-04	93	72	9.4
2023-09-05	95	78	13.7
2023-09-06	97	77	14.5
2023-09-07	96	76	13.8
2023-09-08	92	73	10.5
2023-09-09	88	73	8.9
2023-09-10	81	70	4.2
2023-09-11	85	72	7.5
2023-09-12	87	69	7.3
2023-09-13	83	71	6.7
2023-09-14	81	63	2.0
2023-09-15	74	58	-3.6
2023-09-16	79	60	0.2
2023-09-17	79	56	-1.4
2023-09-18	70	62	-2.5
2023-09-19	77	59	-0.1
2023-09-20	78	58	0.3

With two full days of astronomical summer left, Newark is sitting in 10th place for astronomical summer. One caveat, realize the dates can vary by about a day in either direction, but this analysis uses the period June 21 to date for ease of comparison. Prior to 2005, only two warmer astronomical summers are noted (1993 & 1983). While it's in 10th place out of 124 years of data, it is only in third place out of the past three years and seventh place of the past 14 years. 

So very warm historically - as I noted, it would have been 3rd warmest prior to 2005 - but only about on par for the past decade and a half. And possibly with it being only the 3rd warmest since 2021, it may be a cool astronomical summer in the current climate.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 90 (1940)
NYC: 95 (1895) - very hot late septemeber heatwave peaks tomorrow
LGA: 89 (1940)



Lows:

EWR: 39 (1946) - first sub 40 record low since May 30
NYC: 40 (1871)
LG: 43 (1956)

Historical:

 

1894 - A heavy chicken house, sixteen by sixteen feet in area, was picked up by a tornado and wedged between two trees. The hens were found the next day sitting on their eggs in the chicken house, with no windows broken, as though nothing had happened. (The Weather Channel)

 

1894: A late season severe weather outbreak occurred across northwest Iowa, south central Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin during the late evening hours. Several communities were impacted by this outbreak with an estimated 55 to 65 deaths, and in additional 300 injuries. The strongest tornado was an estimated F5, which tore through the counties of Kossuth, Hancock, Winnebago in Iowa, and Faribault in Minnesota.

 

1924: A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured.

1938 - A great hurricane smashed into Long Island and bisected New England causing a massive forest blowdown and widespread flooding. Winds gusted to 186 mph at Blue Hill MA, and a storm surge of nearly thirty feet caused extensive flooding along the coast of Rhode Island. The hurricane killed 600 persons and caused 500 million dollars damage. The hurricane, which lasted twelve days, destroyed 275 million trees. Hardest hit were Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Long Island NY. The ""Long Island Express"" produced gargantuan waves with its 150 mph winds, waves which smashed against the New England shore with such force that earthquake-recording machines on the Pacific coast clearly showed the shock of each wave. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1954 - The temperature at Deeth, NV, soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 87 degrees, a record daily warm-up for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Tropical Storm Emily, which formed in the Carribean the previous afternoon, caused considerable damage to the banana industry of Saint Vincent in the Windward Islands. Unseasonably hot weather continued in Florida and the western U.S. Redding CA and Red Bluff CA, with record highs of 108 degrees, tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds and locally heavy rain in the southwestern U.S. One thunderstorm in west Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Dell City completely destroying an airport hangar. A Cessna 150 aircraft housed within the hangar was flipped over and snapped in two. Thunderstorms produced large hail in east central Utah, while snow blanketed some of the higher elevations of the state. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo slammed into the South Carolina coast about 11 PM, making landfall near Sullivans Island. Hurricane Hugo was directly responsible for thirteen deaths, and indirectly responsible for twenty-two others. A total of 420 persons were injured in the hurricane, and damage was estimated at eight billion dollars, including two billion dollars damage to crops. Sustained winds reached 85 mph at Folly Beach SC, with wind gusts as high was 138 mph. Wind gusts reached 98 mph at Charleston, and 109 mph at Shaw AFB. The biggest storm surge occurred in the McClellanville and Bulls Bay area of Charleston County, with a storm surge of 20.2 feet reported at Seewee Bay. Shrimp boats were found one half mile inland at McClellanville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

1938 LI Express Hurricane : https://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

With two full days of astronomical summer left, Newark is sitting in 10th place for astronomical summer. One caveat, realize the dates can vary by about a day in either direction, but this analysis uses the period June 21 to date for ease of comparison. Prior to 2005, only two warmer astronomical summers are noted (1993 & 1983). While it's in 10th place out of 124 years of data, it is only in third place out of the past three years and seventh place of the past 14 years. 

So very warm historically - as I noted, it would have been 3rd warmest prior to 2005 - but only about on par for the past decade and a half. And possibly with it being only the 3rd warmest since 2021, it may be a cool astronomical summer in the current climate.

It’s the first time since 1983 with the warmest annual temperature occurring in September without tying with an earlier month.

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Season
2023	93	90	91	96	91	97	M	97
2022	88	98	96	102	101	93	76	102
2021	89	96	103	97	99	91	84	103
2020	69	86	93	96	94	89	79	96
2019	80	90	93	99	94	93	96	99
2018	84	94	96	98	96	98	82	98
2017	87	94	99	98	93	92	86	99
2016	83	96	91	99	98	94	87	99
2015	82	91	93	98	97	98	81	98
2014	83	88	92	96	93	95	79	96
2013	85	94	96	101	91	96	89	101
2012	88	92	99	104	95	92	81	104
2011	87	92	102	108	98	88	88	108
2010	92	95	98	103	98	98	79	103
2009	93	87	89	91	95	86	77	95
2008	82	87	99	98	91	92	79	99
2007	86	94	96	97	95	92	89	97
2006	83	94	95	98	101	85	82	101
2005	88	84	97	101	102	94	81	102
2004	88	92	97	91	92	87	76	97
2003	88	81	95	95	93	82	78	95
2002	97	90	96	100	100	91	86	100
2001	87	94	95	97	105	88	83	105
2000	78	94	96	93	92	88	82	96
1999	83	90	99	103	99	88	76	103
1998	74	90	94	98	93	92	79	98
1997	74	86	97	101	97	86	88	101
1996	88	99	92	91	92	92	78	99
1995	82	90	97	104	98	91	85	104
1994	92	95	102	99	95	92	78	102
1993	82	93	102	105	100	100	82	105
1992	79	98	90	97	95	90	83	98
1991	88	93	97	102	96	95	82	102
1990	94	83	92	98	93	91	88	98
1989	79	89	96	99	97	97	80	99
1988	74	94	101	101	99	86	81	101
1987	79	98	96	97	97	87	75	98
1986	80	95	94	100	90	89	85	100
1985	89	92	89	94	97	94	80	97
1984	77	89	97	95	93	88	82	97
1983	85	84	96	98	97	99	84	99

[jets]

We now have invest 99L. Ship guidance has it going up to 65 kts!

[NJwx85]

Hodographs looks interesting for Saturday afternoon, especially along the immediate coast. We should see bands rotating in off the ocean capable of water spouts coming onshore.

[MJO812]

6z Euro with more coming for the coast