BxEngine Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 My flight home sat night isnt looking so hot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 40 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the cmc track would bring a tornado threat up the coast How come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, David-LI said: How come? we get the unstable side of the storm along with good shear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: How come? High SRH values and backed flow. In general, the eastern part of any significant low pressure system has the highest probabilities for severe weather (that's obviously broad-brushing it a bit, but you get the idea). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 Euro's going to be a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Euro's going to be a miss It was a miss at 12z yesterday also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 weird to see the euro less organized than the others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Model mayhem time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Model mayhem time Feb 2010 just a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 There would be weenies lining up on the GW to jump if this were winter.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Eps is still close to the coast with over a inch on the mean for nyc fwiw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: I've passed that place many times but never stopped Best ice cream around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 Icon fwiw 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: weird to see the euro less organized than the others Euro hasn't been doing the best lately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Gfs has rain from Saturday morning through Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Frigid 76 today. Lit the wood stove around noon to keep warm. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will generally top out in the lower and middle 70s in much of the region. Nights will see readings in the 50s in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia with 40s possible in some of the colder suburbs. Another storm could bring a significant rainfall to the region Saturday night into Sunday. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could develop in eastern North America as September concludes. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -25.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today. On September 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.591 (RMM). The September 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.646 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.8° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 18z euro further west at Hr90. It would definitely bring rain into the area if it went out further 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro further west at Hr90. It would definitely bring rain into the area if it went out further yeah, think the 12z was a blip run.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 18z Euro at 90 hours Precip shield is further west than 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Another cool night, down to 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 For shits and giggles here is the 06z NAM for the weekend thru 18z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 51 which is the coolest of the month here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 61 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 53F Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Still a bit of model spread for the weekend. While all models give us a decent rain, the CMC is stronger and further north. Guess more people would be paying attention if this was a winter forecast with P-type issues. CMC more of a stronger inland runner than the GFS and Euro. The CMC has really been holding steady compared to the other models. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 We might salvage Sunday as this costal storm is becoming more of a Saturday storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 I think we should pay a lot of attention to which models are going to be spot on. Will give us insight this winter. This is a very winter-esque storm. I also like to see these types of storm starting to form in the fall. It gives me hope for the upcoming winter pattern. It has been sorely lacking in recent years with most of our storms cutting west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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