September 2023

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

We'll see if the Euro winds up being right for tonight/tomorrow.

Models all have the split screw to some extent but getting a little less obnoxious with it other than the RGEM. They also have more of the coastal low rain hitting LI now. We'll just have to see what happens. 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models all have the split screw to some extent but getting a little less obnoxious with it other than the RGEM. They also have more of the coastal low rain hitting LI now. We'll just have to see what happens. 

Starting to like one of the epic snowstorm tracks for Long Island from 2013 to 2018.

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Starting to like one of the epic snowstorm tracks for Long Island from 2013 to 2018.

 

Can always use the rain here so hopefully it produces. So many recent shaftings however it’s tough to be hopeful. 

[Rmine1]

55 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can always use the rain here so hopefully it produces. So many recent shaftings however it’s tough to be hopeful. 

My $ is on shaft based on recent history, and the best returns down to the south “appears” it will stay to our east. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is wetter for tomorrow 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Can always use the rain here so hopefully it produces. So many recent shaftings however it’s tough to be hopeful. 

I have been doing pretty well here at my new place near KHVN. Got about 1.37 in about 30 minutes a week ago. The whole side of the parking lot flooded to the top of the curb. So the further east you go recently the better you have done. Just hoping I can see a snowstorm up here like Nemo in 2013.  Having a major ASOS so close by is a great benefit to knowing my observations  with better precision. My little digital indoor outdoor thermometer has been very close to the airport temperature. They may even radiate slightly better there since the ASOS and airport is in a bowl lower than the surrounding area with a big hill a few blocks away. Great little airport but it does flood in heavy rains or big coastal surges.

[donsutherland1]

Rain will arrive tonight and continue through tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Eastern sections will likely see the heaviest rain.

In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could develop in eastern North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -13.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.387 today.

On September 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.527 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.663 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.4° (2.2° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records

 

Highs

 

EWR: 95 (1991) endless summer
NYC: 93 (1991)
LGA: 95 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 44 (1950)
NYC: 45 (1986)
LGA: 48 (1986)


Historical:

 

 

1923: A devastating fire threatens the University of California at Berkeley on this day. This fire killed two and caused $10 million in damages. While the exact cause is unknown, the fire began in the dry forest northeast of Berkeley. Strong northeasterly winds blew cinders into the air which lead to the rapid-fire growth.1932 - Concord NH was drenched with 5.97 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for that location (16th- 17th). (The Weather Channel)

1963 - Nearly two and a half inches of rain fell at Yuma AZ in 24 hours. It was the most intense rain for Yuma during the period between 19S09 and 1977. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - A storm produced a band of heavy snow across parts of Wyoming. Totals of 23 inches at Rawlins and 20.7 inches at Lander easily surpassed previous snowfall record totals for so early in the season. (15th-17th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Heavy rain in southwestern Pennsylvania forced evacuation of twenty homes along Four Mile Run Creek, near Darlington. Harrisburg PA established a record for the date with 2.11 inches of rain. A cold front in the central U.S. brought freezing temperatures to parts of Montana and Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Early in the morning a tornado hit Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio, TX, injuring three persons and causing twenty-eight million dollars damage. A second tornado on the northwest side of San Antonio caused six million dollars damage, and a third tornado in Bexar County killed one person and injured another. Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Gilbert spawned a total of forty-seven tornadoes in a two day period, with forty of those tornadoes in central and south central Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit the Virgin Islands, producing wind gusts to 97 mph at Saint Croix. Hurricane Hugo passed directly over the island of Saint Croix causing complete devastation and essentially cutting off the island from communications. A storm surge of five to seven feet occurred at Saint Croix. The only rain gauge left operating, at Caneel Bay, indicated 9.40 inches in 24 hours. Hurricane Hugo claimed the lives of three persons at Saint Croix, and caused more than 500 million dollars damage. A ship, Nightcap, in the harbor of Culebra, measured wind gusts as high as 170 mph. A cold front brought high winds to the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountain Region, and thunderstorms along the cold front produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Yellowstone Park WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

2004: The remnants of Hurricane Ivan submerged Pittsburgh in 5.95 inches of rain in one day. That is the most rainfall Pittsburgh has seen in a 24-hour period since records began in 1876. 

[SACRUS]

 

9/17

PHL: 81
EWR: 79
LGA: 79
New Bnswck: 78
TEB: 78
ACY: 78
BLM: 77
NYC: 77
TTN: 76
ISP: 74
JFK: 73

[psv88]

79 today. 
 

shocking to see the rain west of the city hitting a wall. 

[Stormlover74]

Made it to .1"

[Allsnow]

.14 already 

[Allsnow]

HRRR very wet tomorrow for the area 

[Rmine1]

37 minutes ago, psv88 said:

79 today. 
 

shocking to see the rain west of the city hitting a wall. 

Big Ben, Parliament. Here we go again 

[JonClaw]

Humidity is back. Bleh.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.29" of rain for the day.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Finally a nice steady rain soaking rain for the island. Makes sense as we start to leave convective season and enter stratiform rain season.  

[Allsnow]

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

.14 already 

1.04 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.51" of rain so far today.

Storm total so far 0.80"

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

1.04 

We just never know sometimes when the Euro more westerly idea initially will pan out. Some of the mesos caught onto the better rainfall potential in NJ. We’ll see if the Euro idea of a slow moving and wet subtropical storm pans out for next weekend. This time the CMC is stronger, faster, and  more amped up. Always a challenge to determine whether we get the slower and weaker low like the Euro shows or the stronger CMC storm. Either way things look wet for a few days as rains could arrive ahead of low with inverted trough feature tucked under 1030 mb high.

[bkviking]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

I have been doing pretty well here at my new place near KHVN. Got about 1.37 in about 30 minutes a week ago. The whole side of the parking lot flooded to the top of the curb. So the further east you go recently the better you have done. Just hoping I can see a snowstorm up here like Nemo in 2013.  Having a major ASOS so close by is a great benefit to knowing my observations  with better precision. My little digital indoor outdoor thermometer has been very close to the airport temperature. They may even radiate slightly better there since the ASOS and airport is in a bowl lower than the surrounding area with a big hill a few blocks away. Great little airport but it does flood in heavy rains or big coastal surges.

Wow Chris - you are no longer on LI I see! Still, New Haven is really just a stones throw from my ole hometown of Shoreham on opposite side of Sound. Btw, Original Pepe’s is better than Sally’s to me Lol . Ok - well we will just have your detailed weather observations from a little further north and east. I hope new location offers less changeovers  for you with a bit more latitude than SW Nassau screw zone you come from. 

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just never know sometimes when the Euro more westerly idea initially will pan out. Some of the mesos caught onto the better rainfall potential in NJ. We’ll see if the Euro idea of a slow moving and wet subtropical storm pans out for next weekend. This time the CMC is stronger, faster, and  more amped up. Always a challenge to determine whether we get the slower and weaker low like the Euro shows or the stronger CMC storm. Either way things look wet for a few days as rains could arrive ahead of low with inverted trough feature tucked under 1030 mb high.

GFS moving in a wet direction for the weekend now. 

Some definite subtropical characteristics there. Overall pattern looks warm/wet with more muted highs and very high mins.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, bkviking said:

Wow Chris - you are no longer on LI I see! Still, New Haven is really just a stones throw from my ole hometown of Shoreham on opposite side of Sound. Btw, Original Pepe’s is better than Sally’s to me Lol . Ok - well we will just have your detailed weather observations from a little further north and east. I hope new location offers less changeovers  for you with a bit more latitude than SW Nassau screw zone you come from. 

Yeah, I am very close to the airport near the shore but a bit north of where the Sandy high tides made it to. Areas just to my south flooded. We did the pizza tour recently and I really enjoyed Sally’s and Modern. Enjoying the colder mornings recently than my old area of the South Shore which didn’t radiate very well. The hot days also get tempered a bit here due to the cooling breezes south of I-95. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  67degs.(62/73) or Normal.

For next weekend the CMC leads with 3".     GFS/EURO about 1"-2".

Reached 74 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  67-72, wind ne., Rain till 6pm., 61 tomorrow AM.

67*(92%RH) here at 7am-Rain. {was 70 at Midnight}.    67* at 9am.     67* at Noon.      68* at 2pm.      69* at 3pm.

[Allsnow]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just never know sometimes when the Euro more westerly idea initially will pan out. Some of the mesos caught onto the better rainfall potential in NJ. We’ll see if the Euro idea of a slow moving and wet subtropical storm pans out for next weekend. This time the CMC is stronger, faster, and  more amped up. Always a challenge to determine whether we get the slower and weaker low like the Euro shows or the stronger CMC storm. Either way things look wet for a few days as rains could arrive ahead of low with inverted trough feature tucked under 1030 mb high.

100% 

 

This doesn’t change our discussion from a few days ago. We still never know when the euro further west idea will be correct 

[Allsnow]

1.36 mod rain 

[Big Jims Videos]

Could be a prolonged period of beach erosion/wave action coming on top of some small erosion issues from Lee's swells.  Luckily full moon isn't for another week after this event.  

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

100% 

 

This doesn’t change our discussion from a few days ago. We still never know when the euro further west idea will be correct 

I had an inkling it might be right when it didn't bail yesterday afternoon at 12z....and then the other models moved to the euro on their 18z runs....

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I had an inkling it might be right when it didn't bail yesterday afternoon at 12z....and then the other models moved to the euro on their 18z runs....

Yeah, once the meso models came on board with a few other Global’s it became more likely. 
 

It waffled east at 12z Saturday which came me lots of hesitation 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

100% 

 

This doesn’t change our discussion from a few days ago. We still never know when the euro further west idea will be correct 

Yeah, that’s why I am hoping that AI can eventually hone in on which models will be correct in a given situation. Plus the Euro is going to upgrade the resolution to 4 or 5 km in the next few years. Just hoping they they can improve the convective scheme so we can get performance closer to the mesos at times. But not sure how running that kind of resolution beyond 60 hrs on a global rather regional scale will play out yet.