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September 2023


Stormlover74
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5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro is a terrible model

It only seems to be off with storm tracks near the East Coast. The temperature and teleconnection forecasts are pretty good. So not sure how much the crew at the ECMWF modeling center care about our local forecasts. Maybe they are willing to sacrifice some regional storm track reliability to achieve higher overall hemispheric skill scores. We need more modelers on these forums since the forecasters and modelers are two distinct groups.

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41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

NAMs are wetter but screw western LI down to coastal nj

But 12z RGEM not giving much except for central-eastern LI and well to the northwest. Overall I think it's looking like a decent soaking, but nothing like what those earlier Euro runs were showing. Maybe we can get a half inch here. Probably have to go well to the east to get much more significant rain. 

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

But 12z RGEM not giving much except for central-eastern LI and well to the northwest. Overall I think it's looking like a decent soaking, but nothing like what those earlier Euro runs were showing. Maybe we can get a half inch here. Probably have to go well to the east to get much more significant rain. 

Meh I'm thinking a quarter inch if we're lucky

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73 / 57 clouds fast approaching from the west. So another 1 - 2 hours of this splendid weather.  Rain by later this evening / tonight, already showers into PA.  Rain tomorrow with trough pushing through.  By Tue (9/19) heights are rising into the east with flow going around and onshore flow Wed (9/20) - Fri (9/22) .  Flow goes southerly by Sat (9/23) wit an overall warm and wet look as the Atlantic ridge slows anything down along the coast.  Could be a very wet finish, should the Atlantic ridge be stronger itll push heaviest rains west but current tendencies this year looks like coastal warm/wet tropics potential finish.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has alot of rain for next weekend 

That's likely a tropical/subtropical system. Other models are showing some homebrew development and all that moisture could head straight towards us.

The tendency so far this season has been east with systems so I'm not buying the more west GFS right now. 

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Seems like whenever these 1030 mb highs move off the New England coast in the early fall there is often a subtropical or tropical system underneath. The CMC is most aggressive with development and track just to our west. Sometimes the CMC will score a coup over the GFS and Euro from a week out like late January 2021. But each case is different so you never know. At least it isn’t the Euro alone with a more amped up run than any model since we would probably automatically toss it with how erratic it has bee in recent years.

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