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September 2023


Stormlover74
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i would think the upper level anticyclone is a function of the lower level convection and the dissipation of said convection as the storm transitions to a structure driven by baroclinic processes might likewise dissipate said anticyclone

however i also have no idea what i’m talking about and i’m legally barred from operating metal food utensils by the state of new jersey so maybe that is an incorrect assumption

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After a chilly start, temperatures rose into the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. Tomorrow will then be fair and continued cool. Much of the region will likely see temperatures top out in the lower to middle 70s.

In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could develop in eastern North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -16.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.613 today.

On September 12 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.721 (RMM). The September 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.188 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal).

 

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Pretty cool how the early season nor’easter now forecast for Monday was missed by earlier model runs. So wet and cool pattern to start the new week. We’ll take anything that resembles an actual fall pattern. Eastern sections should be favored. So if this was the winter, better snows east with western areas missing out.

New run now has our first nor’easter of fall on Monday


F1FE913A-3CF0-4F0A-898E-4ADE5841C154.thumb.png.872900b62bd26d14319f520903604964.png

 

Old run just a frontal passage 


7A152F93-7A41-4411-A15D-B136F233602F.thumb.png.003a7ccebc72ad71af628b790ddaf986.png

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty cool how the early season nor’easter now forecast for Monday was missed by earlier model runs. So wet and cool pattern to start the new week. We’ll take anything that resembles an actual fall pattern. Eastern sections should be favored. So if this was the winter, better snows east with western areas missing out.

New run now has our first nor’easter of fall on Monday

 

8ADBBE76-6917-4620-B67E-E2440E35B411.thumb.png.26c65f6135d6bb33d41e41105e1920e7.png


Old run just a frontal passage 


7A152F93-7A41-4411-A15D-B136F233602F.thumb.png.003a7ccebc72ad71af628b790ddaf986.png

Still lots of uncertainty and Euro loves to have these lows too close to the coast and wound up

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Still lots of uncertainty and Euro loves to have these lows too close to the coast and wound up

The Euro is probably too far west like it was with Lee. But all the other models focus the heaviest rains over eastern sections. So my guess is that western sections may end up saying what nor’easter while coastal sections to the east cash in. 

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The next 8 days are averaging   69degs.(62/77) or +1.

Reached 70 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  70-75, wind nw.-breezy, scattered clouds, 61 tomorrow AM.

60*(63%RH) here at 7am.     61* at 9am.      64* at 10am.     67* at 11am.      70* at Noon.      73* at 2pm.     Reached 79* at 5pm.      72* at 9pm.

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is probably too far west like it was with Lee. But all the other models focus the heaviest rains over eastern sections. So my guess is that western sections may end up saying what nor’easter while coastal sections to the east cash in. 

Agree. Euro probably to far west but was the first to see it 

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