September 2023

[forkyfork]

11 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Newark ASOS is a steaming pile of dung 

Harrison had one 90

https://owc.enterprise.earthnetworks.com/Graphs/DailyObs.aspx?aid=4306&pid=3&station_id=HRSSN&units=english&culture_id=en-US

four

 

[winterwx21]

77 degrees with a dewpoint of 45 and not a cloud in the sky. Spectacular ... a top 10 day of the year. 

[bluewave]

Estell Manor COOP edged out Newark and Hightstown for the August 90 day lead.
 

Monthly Data for August 2023 for New Jersey
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	6
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	5
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	5
Newark Area	ThreadEx	5
HARRISON	COOP	4
MARGATE	COOP	4

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

How closely do the PRISM numbers agree with the officially tallies from NOAA? A mean of 72.98F would be 15th warmest overall, between 2007 & 1933. I would have thought this would be a Top 10 hottest summer with the record-breaking heat in the south and parts of the west.

Note that the PRISM anomaly is based off 1991-2020 climatology, whereas the NOAA anomalies are based off the cooler 20th century mean [1901-2000]. 

Also worth noting that while this may be the 15th warmest summer overall, it is warmer nationally than all but three summers prior to 2000 (those three being the notorious drought years of 1934, 1936 & 1988).

[donsutherland1]

Meteorological fall commenced with unseasonably chilly readings across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. Low temperatures included:

Albany: 512°
Binghamton: 49°
Boston: 57°
Bridgeport: 57°
Danbury: 49°
Hartford: 51°
Islip: 58°
New Haven: 55°
New York City: 61°
Newark: 60°
Philadelphia: 62°
Poughkeepsie: 47°
Providence: 54°
Westhampton: 57°
White Plains: 53°

The Labor Day weekend will start cool but turn noticeably warmer on Sunday. Labor Day will be fair and hot with temperatures reaching the upper 80s and even lower 90s.

The ECMWF weeklies suggest that the September 4-18 period could see temperatures average above to much above normal across the region. Parts of the region could see high temperatures peak at or above 90° on one or more days. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -22.10 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.311 today.

 

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Meteorological fall commenced with unseasonably chilly readings across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. Low temperatures included:

Albany: 512°
Binghamton: 49°
Boston: 57°
Bridgeport: 57°
Danbury: 49°
Hartford: 51°
Islip: 58°
New Haven: 55°
New York City: 61°
Newark: 60°
Philadelphia: 62°
Poughkeepsie: 47°
Providence: 54°
Westhampton: 57°
White Plains: 53°

The Labor Day weekend will start cool but turn noticeably warmer on Sunday. Labor Day will be fair and hot with temperatures reaching the upper 80s and even lower 90s.

The ECMWF weeklies suggest that the September 4-18 period could see temperatures average above to much above normal across the region. Parts of the region could see high temperatures peak at or above 90° on one or more days. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -22.10 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.311 today.

 

Ridiculous UHI effect up in Albany 

[doncat]

August finished here with a -0.7° temp departure...As for the summer...with June's negative departure and July's positive, the 3 month period finished very close to normal for my station. Rainfall totaled 15.41" which is a bit above normal.

[Jacob brooklyn]

Wow cool outside autumn like

[SACRUS]

 

9/1

 

 

EWR: 79
PHL: 79
TEB: 78
New Brnswck: 77
TTN: 77
JFK: 76
LGA: 76
ACY: 76
NYC: 76
ISP: 74
BLM: 72

[wdrag]

D6-10 and 8-14 from CPC issued this afternoon continues a wet second week of Sept around here. Troughing: still plenty of time to turn the flow more ssw at 5H instead of wsw, and draw the offshore tropical system further nw.  

Current little dry spell beyond Wed the 6th = decreasing chances. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   81degs.(72/91) or +8.

Reached 76 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   76-80, wind w. to s., few clouds, 69 tomorrow AM.

64*(74%RH) here at 7am.     66* at 9pm.      69* at 10am.      71* at Noon.      72* at 2pm.     73* at 4pm.    Reached 74* at 6pm.

[Allsnow]

54 wow 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

54 wow 

This used to be very common back in the day. 

Still it's refreshing before a super hot week.

[Rtd208]

Overnight low of 53 here. 

[bluewave]

Whether the usual warm spots in NJ go 95+ this week will come down to how close the offshore cutoff gets. The Euro is the hottest at 95-100° with the low staying further offshore. The CMC is in the middle at 94-98°. The GFS has the low closer to coast and more onshore flow and 90-95°. Not sure if the Euro is over amped with the ridge to the west. None of the models have been doing particularly well recently with big flips in some way from run to run. The summer forecast bias was too warm. But September in recent years has been unusually warm. So who knows which will win out.
 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

58 /56 off a low of 53 here.  Should rocket to the mid 80s.  Very nice day on top and weekend overall.  Start mid septemberish 1/2 and close the back half mid summerish.  Sun (9/3) - Thu (9/7) ridge builds and most sustained (widespread) heat of the season for most. Low to mid 90s, perhaps the hot spots can get a 97 or so.  850 MB  nearing 18c - 19C >16c through Thu.  Records highs safe till Mon - Wed when could challenge.   Flow is N-NW.    Most forecasts keep the ghost of Idalia east of New England , perhaps enough to turn a NE flow for coastal sections and clouds into LI (wed-Thu) we'll see. Otherwise nicest Labor Day weekend in  while all 3/4 days.

By later Thu - front / trough approaching and flow going and turning around more SW/S Fri (9/8) - Sat (9/9) - opposite of this spectacular weekend, and with it next shot at rain / storms.  By Sun (9/10) trough and cooler NW/NNW flow returns.

 

Way beyond looks more like turn to a more humid flow and warmer overall by mid month.

 

 

[SACRUS]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Whether the usual warm spots in NJ go 95+ this week will come down to how close the offshore cutoff gets. The Euro is the hottest at 95-100° with the low staying further offshore. The CMC is in the middle at 94-98°. The GFS has the low closer to coast and more onshore flow and 90-95°. Not sure if the Euro is over amped with the ridge to the west. None of the models have been doing particularly well recently with big flips in some way from run to run. The summer forecast bias was too warm. But September in recent years has been unusually warm. So who knows which will win out.
 

 

 

 

Recent dryness should aid in exceeding and overperforming temps.  Records territory Mon - Wed.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 105 (1953) - sweltering heatwave
NYC: 102 (1953)
LGA: 102 (1953)


Lows:

EWR: 50 (1934)
NYC: 51 (1886)
LGA: 56 (2017)

 

Historical:

 

1775: The 1775 Newfoundland hurricane, also known as the Independence Hurricane, was a storm that hit the Colony of Newfoundland. It is believed to have killed at least 4,000 people, making it one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes of all time. The death toll in Virginia and North Carolina was 163 lives.

1882: Possibly the first photograph of a lightning strike was taken on this day by William Jennings in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

1887: The U.S. Army Signal Service station in Greenville, SC reported a minimum temperature of 50°F. This observation at Greenville still stands as the record low for the day. Additional stations across the state recorded low temps in the low 50's.

1935 - Perhaps the most intense hurricane ever to hit the U.S. struck the Florida Keys with 200 mph winds. The hurricane produced a fifteen foot tide and waves thirty feet high. 400 persons perished in the storm on that Labor Day. The barometric pressure at Matecumbe Bay FL hits a record low for the U.S. of 26.35 inches. (David Ludlum)

1950 - The temperature at Mecca, CA, soared to 126 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of September. The low that morning was 89 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - After teasing residents along the Gulf of Mexico for two days, Hurricane Elena finally came ashore at Biloxi MS. The hurricane, packing winds of 127 mph, caused more than a billion dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Late evening thunderstorms in the Northern Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jordan MT, and a ""hot flash"" at Redig SD. The temperature at Redig rose from 66 degrees at 10 PM to 86 degrees at 11 PM as thunderstorm winds gusted to 36 mph. Nine cities in the Upper Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and the Central Gulf Coast States reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV with a reading of 38 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at Olympia WA, 98 degrees at Seattle WA, 105 degrees at Portland OR, and 110 degrees at Medford OR, established records for the month of September. Quillayute WA equalled their September record with an afternoon high of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Eight cities in the Gulf Coast Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the upper 90s. Houston TX and Port Arthur TX hit 99 degrees. Late evening thunderstorms, developing ahead of a cold front, produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Dickinson ND, and golf ball size hail in North Dakota and Nebraska. Winds along the cold front itself gusted to 62 mph at Buffalo SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2002: An F3 tornado destroyed much of the downtown area of Ladysmith, Wisconsin. Overall damage was estimated at $20 million, but there were no fatalities. 

[SACRUS]

 

1953 HEAT WAVE

 

https://www.life.com/history/heat-wave-photos-1950s/

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Recent dryness should aid in exceeding and overperforming temps.  Records territory Mon - Wed.

It would fit with the theme this year with the greatest daily departures outside summer like we saw in April. But the potential is there if we can keep the UL far enough offshore. Very difficult in these parts to keep record heat away for more than several months at a time. So we’ll see if the Newark thermometer which has been underperforming all summer can finally register a +10 daily departure.

 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2023-09-01	-4.3
2023-08-31	-2.1
2023-08-30	4.7
2023-08-29	1.0
2023-08-28	0.3
2023-08-27	3.1
2023-08-26	4.9
2023-08-25	0.7
2023-08-24	-3.9
2023-08-23	-2.1
2023-08-22	-1.7
2023-08-21	4.6
2023-08-20	-0.5
2023-08-19	-3.7
2023-08-18	1.2
2023-08-17	1.6
2023-08-16	1.0
2023-08-15	1.3
2023-08-14	4.7
2023-08-13	3.6
2023-08-12	2.0
2023-08-11	0.4
2023-08-10	-0.2
2023-08-09	2.7
2023-08-08	0.1
2023-08-07	-0.9
2023-08-06	0.0
2023-08-05	1.4
2023-08-04	-2.2
2023-08-03	-5.3
2023-08-02	-4.8
2023-08-01	-2.4
2023-07-31	-2.5
2023-07-30	-3.1
2023-07-29	4.9
2023-07-28	7.8
2023-07-27	7.3
2023-07-26	0.7
2023-07-25	0.2
2023-07-24	1.1
2023-07-23	2.1
2023-07-22	0.5
2023-07-21	1.5
2023-07-20	1.5
2023-07-19	-1.0
2023-07-18	1.0
2023-07-17	5.5
2023-07-16	-0.5
2023-07-15	2.5
2023-07-14	1.0
2023-07-13	5.6
2023-07-12	4.6
2023-07-11	1.7
2023-07-10	1.8
2023-07-09	0.8
2023-07-08	3.9
2023-07-07	4.1
2023-07-06	6.7
2023-07-05	5.8
2023-07-04	1.0
2023-07-03	6.1
2023-07-02	4.3
2023-07-01	-1.0
2023-06-30	-0.3
2023-06-29	-0.6
2023-06-28	-0.4
2023-06-27	-1.7
2023-06-26	-1.4
2023-06-25	3.3
2023-06-24	0.1
2023-06-23	-6.7
2023-06-22	-8.4
2023-06-21	-5.6
2023-06-20	-2.8
2023-06-19	-1.5
2023-06-18	0.8
2023-06-17	-0.8
2023-06-16	-1.0
2023-06-15	-1.7
2023-06-14	-1.9
2023-06-13	2.0
2023-06-12	1.3
2023-06-11	3.6
2023-06-10	-0.5
2023-06-09	-2.7
2023-06-08	-6.8
2023-06-07	-3.5
2023-06-06	3.4
2023-06-05	-1.3
2023-06-04	-9.0
2023-06-03	-3.6
2023-06-02	9.2
2023-06-01	5.5
2023-05-31	-3.2
2023-05-30	-3.8
2023-05-29	2.0
2023-05-28	1.3
2023-05-27	0.6
2023-05-26	-2.6
2023-05-25	-4.3
2023-05-24	1.0
2023-05-23	-3.2
2023-05-22	2.1
2023-05-21	1.4
2023-05-20	-0.3
2023-05-19	-2.1
2023-05-18	-11.3
2023-05-17	-3.5
2023-05-16	4.8
2023-05-15	1.6
2023-05-14	5.3
2023-05-13	13.1
2023-05-12	12.9
2023-05-11	6.2
2023-05-10	0.4
2023-05-09	0.2
2023-05-08	9.0
2023-05-07	5.8
2023-05-06	0.1
2023-05-05	-3.6
2023-05-04	-6.8
2023-05-03	-6.0
2023-05-02	-6.2
2023-05-01	-1.9
2023-04-30	-2.1
2023-04-29	-6.3
2023-04-28	-4.5
2023-04-27	-3.1
2023-04-26	-5.8
2023-04-25	-1.9
2023-04-24	-2.1
2023-04-23	4.8
2023-04-22	5.6
2023-04-21	4.5
2023-04-20	-0.6
2023-04-19	-0.8
2023-04-18	-2.4
2023-04-17	9.0
2023-04-16	10.4
2023-04-15	14.3
2023-04-14	24.1
2023-04-13	24.0
2023-04-12	23.4
2023-04-11	9.3
2023-04-10	0.7
2023-04-09	-5.9
2023-04-08	-4.5
2023-04-07	2.4
2023-04-06	15.8
2023-04-05	4.2
2023-04-04	11.1
2023-04-03	2.4
2023-04-02	-3.2
2023-04-01	15.2

[psv88]

53 this morning 

[Stormlover74]

Ewr should get 2 days above 95 and a 6 day heatwave though Friday will be close

[SACRUS]

 

Quickly to 77 here. Overperforming highs

 

 

[donsutherland1]

23 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Ridiculous UHI effect up in Albany 

It would have been. Typo on my part. 51.

[LoboLeader1]

71F here in the Berkshires, truly a gorgeous day to be outdoors. Temps to drop in the low 50's tonite,

[SACRUS]

 

9/2

 

EWR: 83
New Brnswck: 82
PHL: 82
TTN: 81
TEB: 80
BLM: 79
LGA: 79
NYC: 79
ACY: 78
ISP: 75
JFK: 75

[SACRUS]

 

 

SHould dry and fade but perhaps a shower into N-NJ

[Allsnow]

13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This used to be very common back in the day. 

Still it's refreshing before a super hot week.

Football starts so Who cares about the heat next week 

[lee59]

76 my high after overnight low of 53.

[psv88]

79 today. Perfect day for Huntington lighthouse music festival.