SnoSki14 Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: We may still find a way to sneak in another 90° or two if that big -PNA +EPO pattern verifies later in the month. Also could see our first tropical system if the Gulf or Western Caribbean becomes more active. Much easier for CV systems to recurve. It wouldn't surprise me if we went from summer to winter with barely any fall 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Upper 80s to some 90s has been the post 9-16 norm since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Sep 16 to Oct 10 Missing Count 2022-10-10 88 0 2021-10-10 88 0 2020-10-10 83 0 2019-10-10 96 0 2018-10-10 84 0 2017-10-10 92 0 2016-10-10 90 0 2015-10-10 89 0 2014-10-10 87 0 2013-10-10 89 0 2012-10-10 81 0 2011-10-10 88 0 2010-10-10 90 0 That 96 we had 4 years ago was in October IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: That 96 we had 4 years ago was in October IIRC. I remember very well. New all-time October highs at several stations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 23 hours ago, psv88 said: What you smell is New Jersey stanky air. Ain’t going anywhere… Lol, nah I lived in NJ all my life. Dealt with the Meadowlands and garbage smells before. But up here we generally have pretty good air quality. This is something different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 13, 2023 Author Share Posted September 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 A strong cold front will cross the region tomorrow with some heavy thunderstorms. Parts of the region could experience street and highway flooding as excessive rainfall amounts are possible. Behind the front, some of the coolest temperatures so far this fall are likely. Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm over the next several days. Atlantic Canada faces the highest risk of landfall, but New England landfall still cannot completely be ruled out. The ECMWF offers the farthest west track on the operational guidance. Eastern Long Island and eastern New England could experience heavy rains and high winds as Lee passes offshore. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -24.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.438 today. On September 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.211 (RMM). The September 9-adjusted amplitude was 2.506 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Tornado warning just NW of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Is this rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 9/13 EWR: 87 TEB: 87 ACY: 86 New Bnswck: 85 BLM: 85 PHL: 85 TTN: 84 LGA: 83 ISP: 83 NYC: 82 JFK: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, David-LI said: Is this rain? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 6 hours ago, SI Mailman said: That 96 we had 4 years ago was in October IIRC. EWR: 10/2/19 : 96 latest 90 is Oct 17, 1938 latest 80 is Nov 15, 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Apparently Baltimore County MD is under a Flash Flood Emergency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 13, 2023 Author Share Posted September 13, 2023 Kinda looks like that was it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Light rain here, flood watch in effect till 6PM this evening. Currently 70F/DP 70/RH 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Surfers delight pattern with a very clean 10”+ swell making it back to Long Island and a perfect offshore flow. Great for migrating shorebirds as the overwash will fill up the back beach tidal pools behind the berm. Sure there will be some beach erosion, but nothing as bad as we have seen at times in the past when the low was much further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Kinda looks like that was it Yep. Flood Watch was just canceled here. I find it funny, when we get flooding there is no flood watch, when there is a flood watch we get no flooding lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Probably just a couple of sprinkles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Probably just a couple of sprinkles here. Amazing how it finds a way to not rain on the island during any deep southerly flow convective setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(63/78) or Normal. Reached 81 here yesterday at 5pm. Today: 76-80, wind variable, m. cloudy, on- off Rain till 8pm., 66 tomorrow AM. 74*(*97%RH) here at 7am. 73* at 9am. 79* at 2:30pm. 77* at 3pm. Reached 86* with a H.I. of 95 at 5:30pm. 76* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Looks like one of the bigger busts....1-2 inches of rain in Upton's forecast so unless something develops later most will see nothing unless you're well north-models too far south with the convection - HRRR says that's all folks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Some rain…….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like one of the bigger busts....1-2 inches of rain in Upton's forecast so unless something develops later most will see nothing unless you're well north-models too far south with the convection - HRRR says that's all folks! Not sure what the hype was. Models weren't all that enthused and the timing was off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like one of the bigger busts....1-2 inches of rain in Upton's forecast so unless something develops later most will see nothing unless you're well north-models too far south with the convection - HRRR says that's all folks! Yep a big bust It was supposed to rain all day. Looks like it will rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 That was some of the most intense rain I've had in a while. Local stations range from 1.3>1.85 and it didn't rain for very long at all. Whoosh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Flood Watches should be called Bust Watches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 13, 2023 Author Share Posted September 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not sure what the hype was. Models weren't all that enthused and the timing was off. .13 is well below what any model had although they all started pulling back yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 .29 bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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