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September 2023


Stormlover74
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Slow-moving thunderstorms brought torrential downpours to parts of the region producing flash flooding. Greenwich, NJ picked up 5.00" of rain this afternoon.

Tomorrow will be a quieter day. It will be partly to mostly sunny and pleasant. Only a few isolated showers or thundershowers are possible. Most of the region should be dry.

A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday with some heavy thunderstorms. Some street and highway flooding is possible. Behind it, parts of the region could see their coolest temperatures so far this fall.

Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm over the next several days. Atlantic Canada faces the highest risk of landfall, but New England landfall still cannot completely be ruled out. Moreover, parts of eastern New England could experience heavy rains and high winds as Lee passes offshore.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -27.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.320 today.

On September 9 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.507 (RMM). The September 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.511 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal).

 

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Forget the cooler weather. I need 80s with a dew point of 40 to dry everything out nicely. Need to paint the front porch and stain the back. Hell I might need to replace some wood now from it starting to rot in all the moisture. This is ridiculous now. I’m so beyond this crap. Lightning fried the aquastat control panel for our boiler. Can we just have some normal weather now? 

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