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September 2023


Stormlover74
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Had a couple close lightning strikes and some wind gusts in the 30s here. I certainly had storms with stronger wind and more lightning this summer, but this was my favorite storm of the season due to the hail. It has been ages since I've seen hail like that. Nickel and dime sized hail for a pretty long period of time. Awesome storm! Temp is down to 67 now after the storm. 

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4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

You guys on the island are taking it on the chin with this pattern.  My station on Fire Island has not measured so far this month.  Meanwhile storms are firing up in NJ and racing off to the north and west.

Make for dry weekends…

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

At Jones beach right now and it’s absolutely oppressive even right on the ocean. Full sunshine and not a drop of rain has fallen here the last few days. 

Was at the rockaways and the water was very warm, reminded me of those water temps near 80 we had in July. Felt a little warmer then back then tbh. My watch was showing 78 - 81.

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3 hours ago, Tatamy said:

You guys on the island are taking it on the chin with this pattern.  My station on Fire Island has not measured so far this month.  Meanwhile storms are firing up in NJ and racing off to the north and west.

I was out there on Tuesday, rode my fatbike from RM field 5 to Ocean Beach. The Burma Road road was wet for most of the stretches between the towns and firm enough where it's usually powder sand. There were stretches that were even a bit muddy. All in all it was a pretty easy 25 minute ride compared to what it usually is because of the rain they had recently. 

I thought I was gonna get a bunch of rain but only got .1. It's pretty gloomy out there though. 

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A cooling trend got underway today. Nevertheless, Philadelphia topped out at 91°. That was its 7th consecutive 90° or above day. That set a new September record. The previous record was set during Septembr 5-10, 1884 and tied on September 1-6, 1898 and September 9-14, 1931.

The cooling trend will continue into early next week. In addition, showers and thundershowers will be possible tomorrow and Monday.

Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm. The ensembles favor recurvature, but the outcome is not yet cast in stone. An area running from eastern New England to Atlantic Canada could face the highest risk of landfall should Lee fail to recurve away from the North American continent. The picture should begin to clear in coming days.

The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. That forecast is verifying with the ongoing heatwave. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -19.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.527 today.

On September 7 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.665 (RMM). The September 6-djusted amplitude was 2.560 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.6° (2.4° above normal).

 

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