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September 2023


Stormlover74
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Today was another blazing hot day. Highs included:

Albany: 92° (old record: 91°, 1983 and 2018)
Allentown: 91°
Atlantic City: 97°
Baltimore: 100° (old record: 98°, 1983) ***Only the 4th 100° reading on record for September***
Buffalo: 90°
Burlington: 92° (old record: 90°, 1945 and 2015)
Concord: 92° (tied record set in 2018)
Harrisburg: 95°
Islip: 92° (old record: 90°1985)
Manchester: 93° (tied record set in 2018)
New York City-Central Park: 93°
New York City-JFK Airport: 93° (old record: 92°, 1985)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 93°
Newark: 97°
Norfolk: 93°
Philadelphia: 95° (tied record set in 1983 and tied in 2018)
Richmond: 101°
Scranton: 90°
Sterling, VA: 100° (old record: 98°, 1983) ***New September record***
Washington, DC: 98° (tied record set in 1954)
Wilmington, DE: 94°

Tomorrow will be generally fair and hot with temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s well into New England. Widespread middle and upper 90s are likely in Baltimore, Washington, and Philadelphia. Some locations could experience a thunderstorm. A cooling trend should commence Friday and continue through the weekend.

Lee has now become a hurricane. Lee will very likely become a dangerous major hurricane by this weekend. The ensembles favor recurvature, but the outcome is not yet cast in stone. Indeed, some of the guidance has grown stronger with the ridging that could result in increased risk to a portion of the East Coast.

The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. That forecast is verifying with the ongoing heatwave. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was unavailable today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.623 today.

On September 2 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.745 (RMM). The September 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.582 (RMM).

 

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4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

September heat hits different then if we had this in mid July. It’s like a sub 32 degree day in march 

Then maybe it's me, but it felt absolutely no different at all.  94 today with the humidity was roasting.  If blindfolded, you could convince me I was back on vacation this year at the end of July.

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The next 8 days are averaging    79degs.(73/86) or +9.

Reached 97 here yesterday with a 107 Heat Index.

For the HW:    92, 91, 93, 97.

Today:    91-95, wind w. to s., scattered clouds, 76 tomorrow AM.

Late Friday till next Friday looks wet, 4".

77*(81%RH) here at 7am.    80* at 9am.      83* at 11am.      86* at Noon.   Reached  86* at 3pm(H.I is 95)     80* at 8pm.

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11 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has had 97 at phl the past three days and they have yet to reach it 

95 at Philly international and 96 at Northeast Philly. So downtown Philly near the Franklin Institute was probably 97-98. But it can sometimes take time for the downtown Philly OBS to become available. When I go to the site, downtown Philly is only updated through July. That site runs a few degrees warmer than the airports.

 

Monthly Data for July 2023 for Pennsylvania
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 99
BRADDOCK LOCK 2 COOP 97
BIGLERVILLE COOP 97
Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 97
PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 97
LANCASTER AIRPORT WBAN 96
SHIPPENSBURG COOP 96
CASHTOWN 1S COOP 96
CARLISLE WATER PLANT COOP 96
WILLIAMSPORT 2 COOP 96
LANDISVILLE 2 NW COOP 95
MIDDLETOWN HARRISBURG INT'L AP WBAN 95
CHARLEROI LOCK 4 COOP 95
PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 95
SAFE HARBOR DAM COOP 95
CONNELLSVILLE 2 SSW COOP 95
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 95
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72/70 .  Peak het today but watch for clouds being a caveat from upper 90s.  Mid / upper 90s.  Fri heat is on but may be toigh to get 90 with clouds. 

Later today front approaches and what will likely be a 6 day period of caught between the expanding Atlantic Ridge and a trough , front is near or on the coast with southerly flow and loads of moisture.  Brunt of rain may be west of the coast pending on strength of the ridge.  Could yield heavy rains.  Where and when the sun is out Fri - Sun, it warms up quickly.  Lee coming around the Bermuda ridge with latest guidance into Nova Scotia, brushing ME coast.    Way beyond the last 8 days of the month heights rising east and overall warmer than normal.

 

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro running about 2 degrees too warm for phl during this heatwave. 

Those point forecasts can be off by 10-20 miles in determining where the max sets up around Philly. So the upper 90s maxes around Philly have been spot on in the city center. Same goes for NJ. The coarse model resolution often shows the max temperatures 20-30 miles SW of Newark and Harrison. But the maxes are usually further NE. So I take the Euro NJ state temperature max and adjust it closer to the urban corridor around Newark. 

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