wdrag Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Depending what the models show today maybe it's time for a separate storm specific thread? The 00z UKMET was certainly interesting. I agree: I can get this going at 5PM, pending 12z cycle. I see the 06z/NAM has gotten back on track... probably too far west but at least its sending pockets of heavy rain northward into the NYC subforum. The 06z RGEM continues on track with its 00z/27 predecessor and from what I can tell...combined with the persistent EPS (EC op has been a little east), I think this is looking like coastal NJ/extreme se NYS/LI/CT-SNE storm where widespread 1-2" with iso 4 or 5 possibly ble. The 1/4 stuff I think is reserved for e PA/Catskills, I90 and maybe extreme nw NJ. Coastal flooding minor per NWS, but I'm thinking this evening and Wednesday evening and then potential worst of this last half of Sept, occurring Saturday mid morning high tide cycle (MDT), and possible ditto Sunday mid morning. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 The last 4 days of September are averaging 62degsq.(56/68) or -4.11 HW Alert???,>>> Week 1 of October: 75degs.(66/84) or +13. Month to date is 70.8[+0.8]. September should end at 69.7[+0.4]. Reached 62 here yesterday at 2pm. Today: 62-66, wind ne., scattered clouds, 56 tomorrow AM. 54*(77%RH) here at 7am. 57* at 9pm. 63* at Noon. 66* at 2pm. Reached 67* at 3pm. 63* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Sneaky cool morning…45 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Sneaky cool morning…45 Same here. Overnight low of 45. Turned the heat on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Low of 49 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 If I am not mistaken, last year's Neg NAO pattern was not classic and allowed needed high pressures to escape east. Therefore we were due to fail from a snowstorm perspective. In the below snip, there is a ridge right through the Atlantic. If I remember correctly last year the ridge was right over us allowing the escape route east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 This is what we saw last year. Missing the ridge in my previous neg NAO example. This is this year but looks like last winter. High pressures escape east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 I am with Walt on the coastal flood potential Friday. Highest astronomical tides of the year, weeks of higher than normal waves and water stuck in back bays, already minor to moderate beach erosion from Ophelia and Friday could be the finale. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 This is how Bay Head looks this morning about two hours after high tide 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Low of 46° this morning here at KHVN is coldest of season so far. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 57 / 48. Brief reprieve from the clouds and rain (18 hours). Warm up to near 70 NE flow and still some clouds keep it cool. Clouds back Thu (9/28) and rains back in E-WSW Fri (9/29) and to close the month Sat (9/30). Perhaps some more heavy amounts 1 - 2+ inches is coastal and eastern areas. Beyond there 10/2 - 10/10 - heights up into the east with warm air - but still see onshore flow bias outside of early next week where 80s are on the menu, especially in the warmer spits. Overall warmer - when the flow isnt onshore it will be stronger warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 38th anniversary of Gloria Extremely similar track to Irene back in 2011 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 My recollection of Gloria is it wasn't all that bad. Nothingburger comes to mind. I do remember walking outside and being in the eye with bright sunshine and a rotating wall of white and grey framing a deep blue circle in the sky. That was pretty cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 27, 2023 Author Share Posted September 27, 2023 Nam is fairly wet Friday. 3knam keeps everything well east. Euro still not enthused. I guess we won't have clarity until tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 16 minutes ago, gravitylover said: My recollection of Gloria is it wasn't all that bad. Nothingburger comes to mind. I do remember walking outside and being in the eye with bright sunshine and a rotating wall of white and grey framing a deep blue circle in the sky. That was pretty cool. Ton of rain where I was just west of Philly but it weakened as it paralleled the coast and drew in continental air.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 End of the HRRR was gearing up for a pretty decent flooding event across the NYC metro on Friday. Kind of like a Norlun...but with 1.6" PWATS 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 27, 2023 Author Share Posted September 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, gravitylover said: My recollection of Gloria is it wasn't all that bad. Nothingburger comes to mind. I do remember walking outside and being in the eye with bright sunshine and a rotating wall of white and grey framing a deep blue circle in the sky. That was pretty cool. Had off from school. Alot of rain and wind. Lost power for half a day. But yeah unless you were on LI or new England it was just a nuisance type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 41 minutes ago, gravitylover said: My recollection of Gloria is it wasn't all that bad. Nothingburger comes to mind. I do remember walking outside and being in the eye with bright sunshine and a rotating wall of white and grey framing a deep blue circle in the sky. That was pretty cool. We got lucky in Long Beach since Gloria hit a low tide instead of high tide. It had a higher storm surge than Irene but Irene came in at high tide. So the actual tide levels for both storms in Long Beach were the same. The wind gusts over portions of Eastern Long Island were estimated at 100+. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 we could be looking at a significant flood event friday if some of the meso models are correct 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Cmc pretty wet for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Gfs slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc pretty wet for Friday Another 2-4" of rain, no thank you!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Ton of rain where I was just west of Philly but it weakened as it paralleled the coast and drew in continental air.... I wasn’t born yet but my parents remember it as a very windy day with some flooding (Long Beach on LI). The eye (what was left of it) passed almost right overhead, maybe slightly east. Was much worse in Suffolk on the east side. Got devoured by the continental dry air and became your typical west side favored rain/east side windy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Regular NAM and NAM 3K are laughably different for Friday. 3k has the rain over E LI and Cape Cod, regular NAM blasts NJ. These inverted trough type events are very fickle as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Regular NAM and NAM 3K are laughably different for Friday. 3k has the rain over E LI and Cape Cod, regular NAM blasts NJ. These inverted trough type events are very fickle as we all know. take a wintertime norlun trough and add warm season convection. very difficult forecast 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Superstorm93 said: 38th anniversary of Gloria Extremely similar to Irene back in 2011 gloria was much stronger as it passed newyork then irene.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, nycwinter said: gloria was much stronger as it passed newyork then irene.. The rain was much more significant with Irene vs Gloria....About 3.50" for Gloria and 8.01" for Irene here on si. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 54 minutes ago, nycwinter said: gloria was much stronger as it passed newyork then irene.. I was mainly referring to the track and speed when it was near the area, but yes. You are right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 12z HREF shows some pretty impressive totals already for Friday morning. FFG is really low from this weekend so I'm starting to get a little concerned for at least some pockets of poor drainage and perhaps stream/creek flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 27, 2023 Author Share Posted September 27, 2023 Euro coming in much wetter tomorrow night and Friday morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now