September 2023

[wdrag]

On 9/23/2023 at 7:48 AM, wdrag said:

Easterly gradient and tidal flooding Thursday Sep 28-Sunday Oct 1.  Multiple tide cycles have a chance of minor coastal flooding, with moderate possible on one or two cycles as tides runs high in this time frame. Modeling is trying to develop low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast with a fairly strong high over New England. Could be of future interest for tides/gale/rain for NJ/LI? 

 

 

Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS

85 and sunny. No worries

[the_other_guy]

14 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

18z GFS has multiple days in the low to mid 80’s for highs the first week of October.

picked up on that extreme warmth at the beginning of September, but it has missed the consistent pulling down of cooler air with these coastal systems.

 

Now, this week shows more of that happening. It’s a pattern that, if it continues, is something I like going into Winter.

[bluewave]

Would be nice if we could continue this blocking into the winter. No real cool air available in North America with the much warmer background global temperatures and hostile +EPO on the Pacific side. So the trough has been unusually warm this month. Recent drop in departures since the 15th has mostly been due to clouds and onshore flow limiting highs. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

64 / 63 light sheet drizzle.  2.41 in the bucket.  Caught between the ridge in Canada and the Atlantic ridge anchored east of Bermuda.  Hung up, strung up  pattern - stagnant.  Overall wet and onshore flow look for limited sunshine and rain - very good pattern for the birds and lovers of clouds and rainy weather (they are out there).   Hard to clear fronts and cut off lows/ ULL will produce rain and unsettledness. 9/23 - 10/2.  Might be tough weekend for apple, pumpkin picking and putting the Halloween decoration up with this rain/washout and wind out and maybe next weekend featuring a strong easterly fetch with low cutoff.

 

Beyond that by time the flow comes around perhaps a brief surge of late season warmth then overall bias warmer into early October.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

 

https://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/img/vis_nj_anim.gif 

 

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Would be nice if we could continue this blocking into the winter. No real cool air available in North America with the much warmer background global temperatures and hostile +EPO on the Pacific side. So the trough has been unusually warm this month. Recent drop in departures since the 15th has mostly been due to clouds and onshore flow limiting highs. 

 

So much for the strong to severe Nino that Snowman can't stop talking about.

We're clearly getting dual forcing here and yeah we're sort of lucking into a cooler 2nd half Sept pattern because everything else is blowtorching. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2017) 6 yrs
NYC: 91 (2017)
LGA: 91 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 40 (1950)
NYC: 40 *(1963)
LGA: 42 (1947)

Historical:

 

1926 - The temperature at Yellowstone Park dipped to nine degrees below zero. It was the coldest reading of record in the U.S. during September. Severe freezes were widespread over the northwestern U.S. causing great crop destruction. In Washington State, Spokane County experienced their earliest snow of record. Harney Branch Experiment Station in Oregon reported a temperature of 2 degrees above zero to establish a state record for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1939: A thunderstorm on this day dropped 6.45 inches in six hours at Indio, CA. This rainfall preceded “El Cordonazo” or “The Lash of St. Francis”, an actual tropical storm. For the entire storm, which started on this day and ended on the 26th, four inches of rain fell across the deserts and mountains as a dying tropical cyclone moved across Baja California into southwestern Arizona. This storm was the second tropical cyclone to impact California during this month. A strong El Niño may have contributed to the activity. The tropical storm produced 50 mph winds over the ocean and estimated seas of 40 feet. September rain records were set in Los Angeles with 5.66 inches and 11.6 inches at Mt. Wilson. 45 people died from sinking boats, and harbors were damaged. Total damage was estimated at $2 million. Californians were unprepared and were alerted to their vulnerability to tropical storms. In response, the weather bureau established a forecast office for Southern California, which began operations in February of 1940.

1950 - A smoke pall from western Canada forest fires covered much of the eastern U.S. Daylight was reduced to nighttime darkness in parts of the Northeast. The color of the sun varied from pink to purple, blue, or lavendar. Yellow to grey-tan was common. (24th-30th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1956: Hurricane Flossy made landfall near Destin, Florida as a Category 1 storm.

1972 - Lightning struck a man near Waldport, OR, a young man who it so happens was carrying thirty-five pieces of dynamite. (The Weather Channel)

 

 

1987 - The first full day of autumn proved to be a pleasant one for much of the nation, with sunny skies and mild temperatures. Thunderstorms again formed over Florida and the southwestern deserts, and also formed along a cold front in the northeastern U.S. A storm spotter at Earp CA sighted a couple of funnel clouds, one on the California side of the state line, and the other on the Arizona side. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced large hail and damaging winds in the southeastern U.S., with reports of severe weather most numerous in North Carolina. Golf ball size hail was reported at Tick Creek and a number of other locations in North Carolina. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Forty-seven cities between the Rockies and the Appalachians reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 38 degrees at Abilene TX, 34 degrees at Jackson KY, and 36 degrees at Midland TX established records for the month of September. The low of 36 degrees at Midland smashed their previous record for the date by thirteen degrees. Fayetteville AR and Springfield MO reported their earliest freeze of record. Thunderstorms produced torrential rains in northeastern Florida. Jacksonville was deluged with 11.40 inches of rain, and flash flooding resulted in two deaths. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: A weak, F0 tornado passed in the sight of the Washington Monument. Soon after, an F3 tornado struck College Park, Maryland.

 

 

2005: Early on the morning of September 24, 2005, Major Hurricane Rita came ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border. 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're clearly getting dual forcing here and yeah we're sort of lucking into a cooler 2nd half Sept pattern

We can’t get cooler weather anymore these days without some type of extreme of blocking. The EPS has been correcting stronger with the block to our north. So high temperature forecasts have been coming down with so much easterly flow. 
 

New run 

 

 

 

Old run

 

 

[SnoSki14]

It's an October Forky pattern. No fall weather in sight. 

Huge trough out west with big ridge in the east. We may not even be done with tropical threats if that's the case. 

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's an October Forky pattern. No fall weather in sight. 

Huge trough out west with big ridge in the east. We may not even be done with tropical threats if that's the case. 

Where is the huge ridge, you mean the blocking?

[nycwinter]

what a beautiful weekend had the heat on i enjoyed the dark gloomy rainy skies...

[donsutherland1]

Through 5 pm, storm total rainfall from Ophelia included:

Atlantic City: 3.71"
Bridgeport: 0.24"
Islip: 0.89"
New York City: 1.79"
Newark: 1.61"
Philadelphia: 1.57"

Additional rain and showers are likely into tomorrow. The latest HREF suggests a stripe of 2"-3" additional rainfall is likely across northeastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New York State, including northwest New Jersey.

In the wake of Ophelia, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up near normal to somewhat warmer than normal. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -7.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.054 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

[JustinRP37]

51 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what a beautiful weekend had the heat on i enjoyed the dark gloomy rainy skies...

So you complain about the heat all summer and then on the first cool weekend you turn the heat on? My place is still 68 but very humid. 

[nycwinter]

24 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

So you complain about the heat all summer and then on the first cool weekend you turn the heat on? My place is still 68 but very humid. 

i have had a the heat quite a few times before this weekend even in manhattan..

[JustinRP37]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i have had a the heat quite a few times before this weekend even in manhattan..

What do you keep it at 80?! I can’t sleep until it is 66-68 

[lee59]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 5 pm, storm total rainfall from Ophelia included:

Atlantic City: 3.71"
Bridgeport: 0.24"
Islip: 0.89"
New York City: 1.79"
Newark: 1.61"
Philadelphia: 1.57"

Additional rain and showers are likely into tomorrow. The latest HREF suggests a stripe of 2"-3" additional rainfall is likely across northeastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New York State, including northwest New Jersey.

In the wake of Ophelia, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up near normal to somewhat warmer than normal. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -7.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.054 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

Never expected September to end up below 70 after such a warm start.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Never expected September to end up below 70 after such a warm start.

It is a stunning turnaround.

[JerseyWx]

This has been an interesting year for turnarounds.  Cold shot in December, then a warm and nearly snowless winter.  Early heat in April, then a cool start to summer.  Hot start to September, and now a near normal finish.

The weather has been keeping us on our toes and guessing.

[psv88]

19 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

This has been an interesting year for turnarounds.  Cold shot in December, then a warm and nearly snowless winter.  Early heat in April, then a cool start to summer.  Hot start to September, and now a near normal finish.

The weather has been keeping us on our toes and guessing.

And yet incredibly boring 

[wthrmn654]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i have had a the heat quite a few times before this weekend even in manhattan..

Your not old enough to be constantly cold like my parents and grandparents are you?!

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

And yet incredibly boring 

Relatively, yeah.  But I have to say this summer did have some pretty intense storms here, one of which produced some of the heaviest rain I've seen, and for the longest duration.  Naturally early fall is one of the more quiet times around here, as you don't really have much going on besides this kind of crap like we had this weekend.

[bluewave]

Just add 2° to the NYC September average temperature to compensate for the artificial cooling from the trees. Notice how much warmer the downtown NYC average temperatures have been this month. Even Montauk is several degrees warmer this month. The the new WTC station at Liberty Park is 2° warmer and it right on the water. So  the actual temperature in Central Park away from the trees will finish above 70° in September.

 

https://facilityexecutive.com/world-trade-center-weather-station-offers-insights-for-facilities/

Monthly Data for September 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Mean Avg Temperature
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	74.7
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	73.9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	73.6
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	73.5
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	73.3
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	73.0
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	72.2
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	72.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	71.8
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	71.8
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	71.7

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of September are averaging   61degs.(55/67) or -5.

Month to date is   71.8[+1.5].     September should end at   69.6[+0.3].

Reached 68 yesterday at 2pm.

Today:   58-62, wine ne.-breezy, Showers, 56 tomorrow AM.

61*(99%RH) here at 7am.     61* at 9am.       63* at 2pm.

[SACRUS]

 

61 / 61 3.95 total from this past 3 days.  Grey skies nothing but grey skies.  Showers and clouds continue this 4th day.  Ophelia or what's left of will depart later tonight and Tue (9/26) PM with scattered showers persisting. 

Beyond there the Atlantic ridge keeps flow stagnant on the EC and ridgig into Canada keeps flow easterly.   Would not surprise me for cut off low to bring more rain chances between 9/25 - 10/2/.

Beyond there the flow comes around with perhaps a two surge of stronger warmth before an overall warmer than normal into early October.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 91 (1970)
NYC: 90 (1970)
LGA: 90 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 39 (1950) 2nd record low sub 40 in sep.
NYC: 40 (1887)
LGA: 42 (1950)


Historical:

 

1848: The Great Gale of 1848 was the most severe hurricane to affect Tampa Bay, Florida and is one of two major hurricanes to make landfall in the area. This storm produced the highest storm tide ever experienced in Tampa Bay when the water rose 15 feet in six to eight hours.
 

1939 - A west coast hurricane moved onshore south of Los Angeles bringing unprecedented rains along the southern coast of California. Nearly five and a half inches of rain drenched Los Angeles during a 24 hour period. The hurricane caused two million dollars damage, mostly to structures along the coast and to crops, and claimed 45 lives at sea. ""El Cordonazo"" produced 5.66 inches of rain at Los Angeles and 11.6 inches of rain at Mount Wilson, both records for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1942: From September 24th through the 26th, 1942, an early-season winter storm moved through the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi River Valley, and Great Lakes, dropping measurable snow as it went.  In many places across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois, this was their earliest measurable snow on record. 
 

1987 - Hurricane Emily crossed the island of Bermuda during the early morning. Emily, moving northeast at 45 mph, produced wind gusts to 115 mph at Kindley Field. The thirty-five million dollars damage inflicted by Emily made it the worst hurricane to strike Bermuda since 1948. Parts of Michigan and Wisconsin experienced their first freeze of the autumn. Snow and sleet were reported in the Sheffield and Sutton areas of northeastern Vermont at midday. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure off the Northern Pacific Coast brought rain and gale force winds to the coast of Washington State. Fair weather prevailed across most of the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Twenty-three cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Topeka KS with a reading of 33 degrees, and Binghamton NY with a low of 25 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Atlanta GA with 4.87 inches of rain, their sixth highest total of record for any given day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: Four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893.

 

2015: Fairbanks, Alaska received 4–9 inches of snow. Another storm on September 27-30 produced 14.2 inches, including 11.2 inches on the 29th. September 2015 would end up being Fairbanks's second snowiest September on record with 20.9 inches.

 

2015: An EF2 tornado tracked nearly seven miles across Johns Island in South Carolina. 

 

 

[MANDA]

Three day rainfall total here = 3.16".  Still ongoing mist and drizzle.

[wdrag]

On 9/24/2023 at 9:30 AM, wdrag said:

Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS

GEPS the only model on board for this significant additional coastal flood/rain event as GEFS has progressed seaward.  EPS still an option but I haven't seen the 06z/25 EPS trend.   For now,  I keep this potential on the table as a likely event for NJ/LI southward.  There is the option for a non event but what I'm seeing right now even in the GFS...daily minor coastal flooding NJ coast for the week, with a chance for a moderate Tuesday afternoon-evening high tide and this without the mid Atlantic low pressure at the end of the week. 

[wdrag]

CoCoRaHs two day totals as also posted under Ophelia topic. Ignore the 13.31 typos in sw CT. Undoubted some 5+ on the southern and northwest edge of of the NYC subforum... so far. 

[Stormlover74]

wet weekend on the ukie and cmc

[Stormlover74]

Euro wet but gone by Friday afternoon