September 2023

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Now its out and pretty suppressed

toss

[nycwinter]

uk may be just ahead of the icon as the worst model..these days..

[SACRUS]

 

 

thru 72 hours - once sunday is added next run should see 3+ 

[winterwx21]

Yesterday I was hoping the east trend would continue, but the CMC has been so consistent and everything else also gives us a big soaking. UKMET is a crazy model. 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Ugh...

On the upside, today is spectacular! Get out and do something 

As perfect as it gets today. Mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 40s. It sucks that the weekend is gonna be a washout, but spending a lot of time outside today. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yesterday I was hoping the east trend would continue, but the CMC has been so consistent and everything else also gives us a big soaking. UKMET is a crazy model. 

Unless the euro jumps I think the ukie is out to lunch. I remember in the Feb 2021 storm it did this 2 days out

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Unless the euro jumps I think the ukie is out to lunch. I remember in the Feb 2021 storm it did this 2 days out

it jumped all over the place before jan 2022

[NJwx85]

The only saving grace is that the rain at least for Saturday morning/afternoon looks to be progressive. 

We will have to see if the convection that the 3k NAM has for Saturday evening comes to fruition.

[doncat]

[Brian5671]

Euro looks like UKMET-struggles to get precip inland from the initial wave

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro looks like UKMET-struggles to get precip inland from the initial wave

Jeez euro has been waffling back and forth . Not good for winter season.

[jm1220]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Euro looks like UKMET-struggles to get precip inland

Suppressing flow coming from the north as well via the Canadian ridge. Still the question of whether the tropical low cuts N or NNW from the Carolina coast or is shoved east because of the suppressing flow over New England. 

[Stormlover74]

It's really not like the ukie though. Most see at least 1"

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Suppressing flow coming from the north as well via the Canadian ridge. Still the question of whether the tropical low cuts N or NNW from the Carolina coast or is shoved east because of the suppressing flow over New England. 

We all get more rain Sunday as the decaying low moves up through the delmarva...so will be a question of 2 waves and how much from each wave...

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's really not like the ukie though. Most see at least 1"

It’s not….2-4 inches around the metro 

[winterwx21]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's really not like the ukie though. Most see at least 1"

Yeah it still ends up a nice soaking even though the significant rain can't get too far northwest on saturday, thanks to rain continuing on sunday. There's definitely a signal from some models for significant rain struggling to get well to the north and west on saturday. Even on the RGEM our heaviest rain comes sunday morning. Saturday is gonna be a wet day, but it's possible that it's just a moderate amount of rain for our area (heavier at the coast) with our heavier rain coming sunday. But of course there are some models that get the heavier rain up here saturday, so who knows. Still will be a little while before we know the details, but overall the weekend is a big washout with a lot of rain. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it still ends up a nice soaking even though the significant rain can't get too far northwest on saturday, thanks to rain continuing on sunday. There's definitely a signal from some models for significant rain struggling to get well to the north and west on saturday. Even on the RGEM our heaviest rain comes sunday morning. Saturday is gonna be a wet day, but it's possible that it's just a moderate amount of rain for our area (heavier at the coast) with our heavier rain coming sunday. But of course there are some models that get the heavier rain up here saturday, so who knows. Still will be a little while before we know the details, but overall the weekend is a big washout with a lot of rain. 

Yeah the nam really seems to be focusing on the heavy stuff coming in early. 

[NJwx85]

12z HMON hurricane model is a real soaker for Saturday night into Sunday. Not sure about earlier.

[wdrag]

May be time to get this into separate subject... now that NHC has it as a disturbance eventually turning out to near the benchmark.  I won't be able to do anything with this after 4P and for me probably needs another ensemble cycle (00z/22).  I sure hope this isn't another (as in the 7th-14th of Sep) non watch FFW situation for PHL/NYC metro areas this weekend.  General stream flow potential is low but it seems to me that 6 hr FFG for ne NJ is under 2"= vulnerable. Monitoring

 

 

[guinness77]

4 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Okx actually just put up an updated overview of the hurricane https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/4028d00ea6b44fd8890ba6592c15a544

That history page is absolutely bananas. That storm ripped through here in literally an hour or two and was an absolute monster. Thanks for posting this. 

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

May be time to get this into separate subject... now that NHC has it as a disturbance eventually turning out to near the benchmark.  I won't be able to do anything with this after 4P and for me probably needs another ensemble cycle (00z/22).  I sure hope this isn't another (as in the 7th-14th of Sep) non watch FFW situation for PHL/NYC metro areas this weekend.  General stream flow potential is low but it seems to me that 6 hr FFG for ne NJ is under 2"= vulnerable. Monitoring

 

 

NBM v4.1 probabilities of >2" over the 24 hours ending 12Z Sunday
continue to increase, now showing a widespread 40-50% across most of
the forecast region, up from about 30-40% last night. Probabilities
of >1" in any 6 hours has nudged up some for Saturday AM into early
afternoon, and this is the window of greatest concern for locally
heavy downpours. Overall, global ensembles paint a widespread 1" to
2.5" Saturday into early Monday for the area, with still some spread
amongst members. RFC 3 hr flash flood guidance is over 2" for much
of the region, with the exception of parts of NE NJ, where values
fall to around 1.5". This would be the area of greatest concern for
any flash flood potential, though certainly cannot be ruled out
elsewhere. More likely, nuisance flooding with the long duration
rainfall is likely with ponding and poor runoff areas.  WPC has
maintained a slight risk for excessive rainfall, indicating the
potential for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

[SACRUS]

 

9/21

 

PHL: 77
EWR: 75
New Bnswck: 75
ACY: 75
JFK: 74
BLM: 73
LGA: 73
TEB: 73
TTN: 72
ISP: 72
NYC: 71

[donsutherland1]

Dry weather will prevail through tomorrow. Temperatures will generally top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region tomorrow, as clouds begin to increase.

A storm, likely subtropical in nature, will likely bring a significant rainfall to the region late Friday night into Sunday. Eastern sections will be in line for the heaviest rainfall. A general 1"-3" of rain is likely. Gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the Jersey Shore, Connecticut Shore, and Long Island. Temperatures will hold mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s during the weekend.

In the wake of the storm, a period of cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up somewhat warmer than normal, but noticeably cooler than had been the case on the guidance even a few days ago. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as September concludes or October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -26.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.122 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (0.8° above normal).

 

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Dry weather will prevail through tomorrow. Temperatures will generally top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region tomorrow, as clouds begin to increase.

A storm, likely subtropical in nature, will likely bring a significant rainfall to the region late Friday night into Sunday. Eastern sections will be in line for the heaviest rainfall. A general 1"-3" of rain is likely. Gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the Jersey Shore, Connecticut Shore, and Long Island. Temperatures will hold mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s during the weekend.

In the wake of the storm, a period of cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up somewhat warmer than normal, but noticeably cooler than had been the case on the guidance even a few days ago. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as September concludes or October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -26.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.122 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (0.8° above normal).

 

Pretty impressive that most of the positive departure from the extremely hot first week of the month is being wiped out. 

[NJwx85]

The 00z NAM is looking drier for Saturday morning.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Pretty impressive that most of the positive departure from the extremely hot first week of the month is being wiped out. 

Is it though?

[psv88]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The 00z NAM is looking drier for Saturday morning.

If Saturday is ruined, let it rain in the morning so my sons baseball is cancelled and I can sleep in. Thanks 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   62degs.(58/67) or -4.

Reached 77 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:   68-72, wind e.-breezy, increasing clouds, Rain by 4AM tomorrow, 58 by tomorrow AM.

GFS,EURO 1"-2" and CMC still 3".

61*(77%RH) here at 7am.     65* at 9am.       70* at 11am.      72* at Noon.     Reached 73* at 3pm.      68* at 6pm.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Pretty impressive that most of the positive departure from the extremely hot first week of the month is being wiped out. 

It is. It illustrates how dramatically things can change.

[donsutherland1]

Three photos of this morning’s sunrise.