September 2023

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

It's skewed because Bluewave cherry picks the warmest sites in the area not to mention Islip only has a POR back to 1964 which is really weak to reference from a historical standpoint. Looking at all the official Mt Holly / Upton climate sites the 3 locations he listed are shockingly the top 3 warmest relative to average this month. Newark ASOS location is abysmal, running 2.6 - 2.7 degrees warmer than Harrison & Caldwell for Sept.

For Sept Newark is +4.5, HPN is +3.9 & Islip is +3.8 while LGA, NYC, Bridgeport, Trenton & Atlantic City are all under +3. Allentown is only +1.3 for the month.

The departures and warmth rankings at Newark are identical to the rest of the region so no cherry pick involved. I only do that in deference to the large contingent of our posters that live in NJ. So yes the absolutes are usually higher in NJ. But warmth rankings are the same around the whole region. The first two weeks of September were near the warmest on record around the entire upper MA to NE region. 
 

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I know you have been a supporter of having the CMC on your side when making a forecast. I would have to say the model is the most Improved since recent upgrades. I wish we had a east coast storm statistical storm tracker which would score the models solely on forecasting the most accurate track. These Northern Hemispheric skill scores don’t tell us much about which model get our storm tracks right. But the skill on a hemispheric scale is great for temperature and teleconnection forecasts. 

Good to know the general stats and agree w you on need for more dstorm track detail!

I tend to support the GFS in summer due to convection being handled pretty well by the GFS but this is more of a winter synoptic pattern so the CMC has a good chance of being reasonably accurate as compared to GFS/EC op.  Ensembles have saved our bacon, I think, in too much trimming northern fringe.  

Other short term modeling soon comes into forecasting play by this time tomorrow. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Good to know the general stats and agree w you on need for more dstorm track detail!

I tend to support the GFS in summer due to convection being handled pretty well by the GFS but this is more of a winter synoptic pattern so the CMC has a good chance of being reasonably accurate as compared to GFS/EC op.  Ensembles have saved our bacon, I think, in too much trimming northern fringe.  

Other short term modeling soon comes into forecasting play by this time tomorrow. 

I think I can remember an AFD out of Mount Holly mentioning they had been evaluating which models were scoring best with storm tracks one winter in the last 5 years or so? 

[mob1]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z Euro with more coming for the coast 

Depending on how strong invest 99L gets, there can be some decent winds along the coast as there's a pretty tight pressure gradient between the LP and strong high to the north-northeast. 

[Brian5671]

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Off the Southeastern United States Coast (AL99):
Updated...A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles 
east of the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure 
system is expected to form within this area by early Friday, and 
there are increasing chances that this system could acquire some 
tropical or subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday 
while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North 
Carolina. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, this 
low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, 
coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and 
mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the 
weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for 
this system as soon as later this morning. Additional information on 
this system, including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service 
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nice cool low of 48 this AM. I’ve been running about 6-7 degrees below forecasted lows for the TR station, where I am tucked into the Manchester border of TR radiates extremely well and is the northern edge of the pine lands. 

The cooler mornings over the last week feel pretty good compared to how warm the month started out. Even the UHI areas have had min departures in line with more rural areas.
 

Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Min Temperature	Min Temperature Departure
2023-09-15	58	-6.8
2023-09-16	62	-2.5
2023-09-17	62	-2.1
2023-09-18	64	0.2
2023-09-19	61	-2.4
2023-09-20	61	-2.1

 

Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Min Temperature	Min Temperature Departure
2023-09-15	55	-2.0
2023-09-16	54	-2.6
2023-09-17	49	-7.2
2023-09-18	56	0.2
2023-09-19	54	-1.4
2023-09-20	51	-4.0
2023-09-21	50	-4.5

 

Data for POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Min Temperature	Min Temperature Departure
2023-09-15	47	-3.0
2023-09-16	45	-4.7
2023-09-17	45	-4.3
2023-09-18	51	2.0
2023-09-19	43	-5.6
2023-09-20	41	-7.3

 

Data for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Min Temperature	Min Temperature Departure
2023-09-15	51	-1.7
2023-09-16	50	-2.3
2023-09-17	46	-6.0
2023-09-18	60	8.4
2023-09-19	51	-0.2
2023-09-20	46	-4.9

[tristateweatherFB]

No one? Anyone?   The nam doing what the nam does

[CIK62]

GFS with the least amount of rain---while the CMC {not shown} extends into NYS to Canada with the 1"+:

[Snowlover11]

18 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

No one? Anyone?   The nam doing what the nam does

NAM is a CAT 1 hitting Wilmington, NC

[NJwx85]

This should be fun

[nycwinter]

yesterday at this time was doom and gloom storm was  not going to be much   now what a difference today..

[Brian5671]

12Z NAM-still raining over most of the area at the end of the run

-

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This should be fun

PRE going on right there.  Taken verbatim could be a notable flooding event for parts of the forum.  Still a ways to go before final solution comes into better focus and this is the NAM after all.

[gravitylover]

Ugh...

On the upside, today is spectacular! Get out and do something 

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

PRE going on right there.  Taken verbatim could be a notable flooding event for parts of the forum.  Still a ways to go before final solution comes into better focus and this is the NAM after all.

The pre could have some gusty winds with it as the isobars are elongated northward and has a decent pressure gradient (yes yes, I have a wind fetish). 

[Stormlover74]

Goes from NC to LI by way of philly

[winterwx21]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like Euro went in this direction too

Also pretty remarkable how our supposed endless summer just sort of ended. Looks quite cool (highs at least) moving forward. 

Looks like around October 1st is when above normal temps come back. 

[mob1]

Tropical storm warnings issued to just offshore the jersey coast. Local HWO outlines heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion. 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Tropical storm warnings issued to just offshore the jersey coast. Local HWO outlines heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion. 

High wind watches too for  SNJ and DE

[Intensewind002]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

1938 LI Express Hurricane : https://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome

Okx actually just put up an updated overview of the hurricane https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/4028d00ea6b44fd8890ba6592c15a544

[NJwx85]

12z RGEM

[ForestHillWx]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nice cool low of 48 this AM. I’ve been running about 6-7 degrees below forecasted lows for the TR station, where I am tucked into the Manchester border of TR radiates extremely well and is the northern edge of the pine lands. 

Sandy soil percs incredibly fast compared to the clay mix up north. Helps sink those temps. 

[Neblizzard]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z RGEM

If this trend continues the NYC metro will have to worry about severe weather

[ForestHillWx]

I’m more worried about severe flooding if that finger of heavy rain sets up shop over NJ. 
 

4-6” over 36 hours is going to push many areas to the limit. 

[steve392]

8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I’m more worried about severe flooding if that finger of heavy rain sets up shop over NJ. 
 

4-6” over 36 hours is going to push many areas to the limit. 

For me high tides will be a huge problem with on shore winds backing up the hackensack river.  Coupled with heavy rains, we'll have some severe flooding in low lying areas where i live.

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I’m more worried about severe flooding if that finger of heavy rain sets up shop over NJ. 
 

4-6” over 36 hours is going to push many areas to the limit. 

Yeah that swath of heavy rain either side of the delaware river is showing up on many of the models

The coast will probably get dry slotted for a time

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

UKIE Wet

That's the GFS. Ukie isn't out yet. 

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That's the GFS. Ukie isn't out yet. 

my bad I deleted it.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

my bad I deleted it.

Now its out and pretty suppressed

[Brian5671]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Now its out and pretty suppressed

yeah gets almost nothing here....