Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 3:57 PM, Allsnow said: Yup. Trending towards euro. It develops the low better down south then the euro Expand Then there's the cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Gfs with the ridiculous cutoff as the low stalls over the delmarva 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 3:20 PM, Stormlover74 said: Been the rule the past few winters. Even within 48 hours we can't get model consensus Expand I think the last time the Euro locked into a KU at 120 hrs and never wavered was Nemo back in 2013. It’s rare for the Euro or any other model to get the right solution beyond the 0-72 time frame. We can remember how the Euro had the heaviest snows from DC to Philly in January 2016 the day before. But the NAM won that round showing the jackpot closer to NYC. The CMC nailed the late January 2021 snowstorm from a week out while the other models were more OTS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 4:01 PM, Stormlover74 said: Then there's the cmc Expand That’s actually a good bump east, it was plowing the low into PA before. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 4:07 PM, jm1220 said: That’s actually a good bump east, it was plowing the low into PA before. Expand Yeah it crushes jersey shore to Li with 6-8+ now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 4:07 PM, jm1220 said: That’s actually a good bump east, it was plowing the low into PA before. Expand Maybe the big cold pool to our east in the wake of the recent hurricanes isn’t allowing a strong enough WAR for the more inland runner the CMC had been showing? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 UKMET is well east for saturday. Just brushes the Jersey shore and LI with a little light rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 4:44 PM, winterwx21 said: UKMET is well east for saturday. Just brushes the Jersey shore and LI with a little light rain. Expand Not surprising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12z GEFS shifted South and East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 This one is gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Euro more developed with the low off the southeast coast this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Euro swings and misses on the rain Saturday but might go the gfs route here with low down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 6:14 PM, Allsnow said: Euro swings and misses on the rain Saturday but might go the gfs route here with low down south Expand Ends up being a brush with second low….very little rain outside the beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 6:20 PM, Allsnow said: Ends up being a brush with second low….very little rain outside the beaches Expand Looking more and more like we're not gonna have much of an event this weekend. CMC is a good model and has been very consistent in giving us a lot of rain, but there's too much other evidence now that this is going to be too far east. We're probably either gonna get nothing at all or just brushed by a light amount of rain. Obviously we'll keep an eye on it though in case CMC and NAM are onto something. You never know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 6:28 PM, winterwx21 said: Looking more and more like we're not gonna have much of an event this weekend. CMC is a good model and has been very consistent in giving us a lot of rain, but there's too much other evidence now that this is going to be too far east. We're probably either get nothing at all or just brushed by a light amount of rain. Obviously we'll keep an eye on it though in case CMC and NAM are onto something. You never know. Expand It wouldn't take much for the eastern models to swing heavy rain back to our area but the other models could just as easily keep trending offshore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 6:28 PM, winterwx21 said: Looking more and more like we're not gonna have much of an event this weekend. CMC is a good model and has been very consistent in giving us a lot of rain, but there's too much other evidence now that this is going to be too far east. We're probably either gonna get nothing at all or just brushed by a light amount of rain. Obviously we'll keep an eye on it though in case CMC and NAM are onto something. You never know. Expand CMC took a jump east from its earlier runs and is likely correcting to the other guidance. NAM is out of range at this juncture.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 7:21 PM, Rtd208 said: Expand Still some really wet members in there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 OKX still going for 1"+ for coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 8:17 PM, uofmiami said: OKX still going for 1"+ for coast: Expand We’re probably still in for a soaking here but it’s all about the SE ridge, if it’s weaker this can slide/get booted east quicker. The models all lurching east at 12z say the Euro might be onto something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Nam's a drencher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 18z NAM thru 06z Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 The 18z NAM was actually about 50 miles West of the 12z run for the landfall position. SC/NC border vs Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 8:52 PM, Rtd208 said: 18z NAM thru 06z Sunday. Expand Rgem a soaker as well with mire to come still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Just a slight shift 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 ICON is a region-wife soaker as well. We'll see if the more reliable models follow suit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Icon way west as posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Gfs shift east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 10:05 PM, MJO812 said: Gfs shift east Expand For the first part on Saturday morning but then round 2 comes in Sunday night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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