SnoSki14 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We might salvage Sunday as this costal storm is becoming more of a Saturday storm It should have some subtropical characteristics. The region off the SE coast is very warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I think we should pay a lot of attention to which models are going to be spot on. Will give us insight this winter. This is a very winter-esque storm. I also like to see these types of storm starting to form in the fall. It gives me hope for the upcoming winter pattern. It has been sorely lacking in recent years with most of our storms cutting west. The CMC has probably been the most improved model in recent years relative to what it used to be. Its big coup was being the first model to see the great snowstorm at the end of January 2021 from a week out. The CMC did better with Lee than the Euro did. But each new storm can be different as to which model does best. The Euro snuck in a win with the wetter forecast for NJ on Monday. So this is a bit of trial and error until AI can correct the models for us. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 49 here. Lowest of the early fall season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We might salvage Sunday as this costal storm is becoming more of a Saturday storm The low is still there on Sunday with showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 66degs.(59/72) or -1. EURO is 0.5", CMC/GFS are 4.0" over the weekend. On another note>>>GFS starts October in the 80's---normal is 70/69. Reached 76 yesterday at 5pm. Today: 72-76, wind nw., few clouds, 60 tomorrow AM . 61*(70%RH) here at 7am. 64* at 9am. 67* at Noon. 73* at 3pm. 78* at 5pm. Reached 79* at 5:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 51 my low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 49 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 everyone's record lows are safe for another year 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 06z euro weak and east…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 06z euro weak and east…. The good ole Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Might be starting to see a consensus towards east/weaker...GFS is going that way too. CMC steadfast with a move NNW into upstate NY 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Might be starting to see a consensus towards east/weaker...GFS is going that way too. CMC steadfast with a move NNW into upstate NY There's basically 3 camps. Cmc/icon/nam vs gfs/ukie and the euro is kind of alone showing a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 9/19 EWR: 77 LGA: 76 JFK: 76 ACY: 76 New Bnswck: 75 BLM: 74 ISP: 74 TEB:74 PHL: 74 TTN:72 NYC:72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/19/2023 at 10:31 AM, Stormlover74 said: Gfs all alone south and east of the other models? What could go wrong Well now I stan for Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: There's basically 3 camps. Cmc/icon/nam vs gfs/ukie and the euro is kind of alone showing a scraper Not that it is a real model, but the Navy is pretty wet as well considering it always seems to be progressive with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 did anyone look before dawn in the eastern sky how bright venus looked.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 On 9/17/2023 at 12:56 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said: The pattern is transitioning into fall. And yes in a very short time-frame we've gone from tracking Lee to tracking the arrival of an autumn air mass into the Great Lakes. The models are struggling. A few days ago the models were depicting a warm to very warm finish to September and start to October. It does not appear that way now. It could change again but I wouldn't bet on it. The endless summer is going to end. WX/PT Yeah the idea of the whole month of September being warm didn't work out. All of the big September warmth was confined to the first third of the month. For the rest of the month it's just mostly near normal temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Long range nam is a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Long range nam is a nice hit Sure speeds it up-mostly done by 8pm Sat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 The 12z NAM is looking dry for Saturday night. Looks like an extended break before the actual low tracks nearby on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Sure speeds it up-mostly done by 8pm Sat Most of the models have the actual low tracking nearby on Sunday so rain would eventually come back in at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Sure speeds it up-mostly done by 8pm Sat Meanwhile the rgem is much slower. Doesn't even get in until late saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Love the difference for a 3.5 day forecast. If this was a winter storm it'd create some serious chaos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, mob1 said: Love the difference for a 3.5 day forecast. If this was a winter storm it'd create some serious chaos. It's the long range NAM and the same holds true now as it does during Winter with its accuracy. But it does at least show the storm tracking well inland and so that adds support for the Western models. The ECMWF is still an Eastern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, mob1 said: Love the difference for a 3.5 day forecast. If this was a winter storm it'd create some serious chaos. Been the rule the past few winters. Even within 48 hours we can't get model consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 Icons been shifting east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Icons been shifting east Looks a lot like the 00z euro overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks a lot like the 00z euro overnight Gfs looks to be heading the way as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs looks to be heading the way as well The storm makes landfall in North Carolina on the 12z GFS as a mid-high end tropical storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs looks to be heading the way as well Yup. Trending towards euro. It develops the low better down south then the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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