LoboLeader1 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Bottomed out at 46F overnite here in the Berks. Currently 59F back home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Euro is a terrible model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro is a terrible model It only seems to be off with storm tracks near the East Coast. The temperature and teleconnection forecasts are pretty good. So not sure how much the crew at the ECMWF modeling center care about our local forecasts. Maybe they are willing to sacrifice some regional storm track reliability to achieve higher overall hemispheric skill scores. We need more modelers on these forums since the forecasters and modelers are two distinct groups. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Overnight low of 51 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: 51 chilly degrees here this morning 49 at Rutgers garden in New Brunswick @psv88 Yup, 48 here to start the new week. Didn’t make it into the 40s last week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 quick rise back into the 70s. like a blip 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2023 Author Share Posted September 17, 2023 NAMs are wetter but screw western LI down to coastal nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Fall like day in Dillsbirg PA 65 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: NAMs are wetter but screw western LI down to coastal nj But 12z RGEM not giving much except for central-eastern LI and well to the northwest. Overall I think it's looking like a decent soaking, but nothing like what those earlier Euro runs were showing. Maybe we can get a half inch here. Probably have to go well to the east to get much more significant rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2023 Author Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: But 12z RGEM not giving much except for central-eastern LI and well to the northwest. Overall I think it's looking like a decent soaking, but nothing like what those earlier Euro runs were showing. Maybe we can get a half inch here. Probably have to go well to the east to get much more significant rain. Meh I'm thinking a quarter inch if we're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Meh I'm thinking a quarter inch if we're lucky I think a quarter to half inch is a good forecast for our area. Looks like a meh event. I'm looking forward to the spectacular weather tuesday through friday with dewpoints dropping down to the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: quick rise back into the 70s. like a blip Welcome to September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Just now, qg_omega said: Welcome to September blip lows don't really count to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 73 / 57 clouds fast approaching from the west. So another 1 - 2 hours of this splendid weather. Rain by later this evening / tonight, already showers into PA. Rain tomorrow with trough pushing through. By Tue (9/19) heights are rising into the east with flow going around and onshore flow Wed (9/20) - Fri (9/22) . Flow goes southerly by Sat (9/23) wit an overall warm and wet look as the Atlantic ridge slows anything down along the coast. Could be a very wet finish, should the Atlantic ridge be stronger itll push heaviest rains west but current tendencies this year looks like coastal warm/wet tropics potential finish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 This is one of the nicest mornings we've had in a long time. I'm kind of disappointed I didn't go out and wander 'round in the woods for a few hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: This is one of the nicest mornings we've had in a long time. I'm kind of disappointed I didn't go out and wander 'round in the woods for a few hours. I could only imagine how crowded the local apple orchards are today. Low of 49 here overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 49 minutes ago, forkyfork said: blip lows don't really count to me Thanks to radiational cooling and UHI, no blip lows in urban areas, just rural and suburban. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: I could only imagine how crowded the local apple orchards are today. Low of 49 here overnight. Lots of bees/wasps too! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Some showers and light rain into EPA/DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Perfect 100% day at the Jersey Shore for another local summer Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Cmc has alot of rain for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc has alot of rain for next weekend That's likely a tropical/subtropical system. Other models are showing some homebrew development and all that moisture could head straight towards us. The tendency so far this season has been east with systems so I'm not buying the more west GFS right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 started off at 48 this morning, now 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2023 Author Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: I think a quarter to half inch is a good forecast for our area. Looks like a meh event. I'm looking forward to the spectacular weather tuesday through friday with dewpoints dropping down to the 40s. Euro still insisting on 1 to 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Seems like whenever these 1030 mb highs move off the New England coast in the early fall there is often a subtropical or tropical system underneath. The CMC is most aggressive with development and track just to our west. Sometimes the CMC will score a coup over the GFS and Euro from a week out like late January 2021. But each case is different so you never know. At least it isn’t the Euro alone with a more amped up run than any model since we would probably automatically toss it with how erratic it has bee in recent years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Up to 78 with some breaks of sun. Do think we are looking at some wetter times come 9/23 - 9/26 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 We'll see if the Euro winds up being right for tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 I’ve been living in west babylon for seven years. This year has been the most squirrel acorn activity I have seen. Too bad it’s a myth lol. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’ve been living in west babylon for seven years. This year has been the most squirrel acorn activity I have seen. Too bad it’s a myth lol. . Lots of acorns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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