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September 2023


Stormlover74
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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro coming around to the AI models idea of windy and rainy conditions for the eastern half of the forum next weekend with Lee.


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That’s one massive beast. Major coastal impacts likely if that were to occur. Any increased tides, with huge long period swells would mean major beach erosion and washovers. We really need to stay away from the wind field to prevent that scenario. Regardless moderate beach erosion is almost a lock. The enormous fetch area aimed at us, will likely cause the largest swell since Bill 09. (Of course not Including storms that directly impacted us like Irene and Sandy)

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24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This reminds me of Henri. The hurricane models are starting to show the hook back west into New England.

We would probably need some westward corrections to track next few days to get the heavy rains back to around NYC like we saw with Henri. So far the block showing up for next weekend isn’t quite as strong as that. But we’ll see what shorter term model trends emerge this week. 

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would probably need some westward corrections to track next few days to get the heavy rains back to around NYC like we saw with Henri. So far the block showing up for next weekend isn’t quite as strong as that. But we’ll see what shorter term model trends emerge this week. 

 

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Crazy 10 days that was think I got like close to 20” of rain in that span

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12 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Crazy 10 days that was think I got like close to 20” of rain in that span

Yeah that was some block over SE Canada. It does look like the block is correcting stronger for next weekend. But still not quite as strong as a few years ago.

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6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I think @wdrag is going to be spot on with some of his concerns in his previous posts regarding this weeks rainfall and flooding potential. Some places have picked up a good amount of rain already

9/11: not a good day

 

Probably not posting after 9A today til Tuesday night... but for what its worth over 5" last night in extreme sw NJ and 4" NYS mesonet week total just n of NYC.  

I'm seeing a fair amount of FFW's without watch past couple of days. Note sure what that is about. For me its's AWARENESS. That helps in difficult situations. 

Most of us will be near 2" by 00z/15 except maybe less e LI.  however, looks to me like spotty 6" CT/NYS/e PA/NJ with isolated 10" still possible dependent on what happens this afternoon-eve and then the Wednesday bands of heavy rain.  Always uncertainty but not benign, in my mind. 

Interesting Lee tendency on the 15th-16th... probably just a scraper for coastal New England with northerly winds and some rain, this per WPC and modeling. Still a worthy monitoring situation and I don't want to look at 23rd yet.

Walt. 719A/11

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The next 8 days are averaging   73degs.(66/81) or +3.

Reached 85 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  78-82, wind ne., m. cloudy, on-off Rain, 71 tomorrow AM.

73*(99%RH) here at 7am.     76* at 9am.     79*  at Noon.       80* at 2pm.      81* at 3:30pm.      Reached 84* at 5pm  with H.I. of 92.

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19 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

we shall see...my area only picked up about an inch in our 3 days of rain..rather meh...considering we had basically nothing in 10 days before that

 

luckily timing was great for the game yesterday with the storms rolling through before we started tailgaiting for the ru game but not during or during the game

Glad you had a good time at the game…

Big test coming up against VT 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Didn’t think I would get this much rain over the weekend. More to come the next few days. 

That’s the power of Miami dew points in September. Just add a weak stalled out front and we are in business. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=CT_ASOS&zstation=HVN&var=max_dwpf&w=all&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=sep&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png


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 73 / 72 has 2.57 inches of rain  last night from the long running storms.  Lots of lightning and thunder.  Cloudy today and more of the same.  Southerly flow  with storms  =/ clouds.  When and when the sun comes out it warms up quickly but temps near 80.  A it of a break tomorrow between the trough before widespread storms come through with the frontal passage wed (9/13).  Thu (9/14) Fri (9/150 drier, very pleasant refresh to dry things out.  Eyes on Lee as he gives New England coastal ME / Canadian coast a pass.  Pending on that track, clouds and humid for Sat.  Beyond that near normal before ridging builda back east the last portion of Sep with an overall warm close to the month. 

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

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Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 99 (1983) year of late season extremes
NYC: 99 (1983) - park tied EWR - old days
LGA: 96 (1983)


Low:

 

EWR: 47 (1932)
NYC: 43 (1917)
LGA: 51 (1967)

Historical:

 

1900: The remnants of the Great Galveston Hurricane were located over central Iowa on this day. Eastern Nebraska, northwest Iowa, and southern Minnesota show four-plus inches of rain from this storm.

1949 - An early snowstorm brought 7.5 inches to Helena MT. In Maine, a storm drenched New Brunswick with 8.05 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1961 - Very large and slow moving Hurricane Carla made landfall near Port Lavaca TX. Carla battered the central Texas coast with wind gusts to 175 mph, and up to 16 inches of rain, and spawned a vicious tornado which swept across Galveston Island killing eight persons. The hurricane claimed 45 lives, and caused 300 million dollars damage. The remnants of Carla produced heavy rain in the Lower Missouri Valley and southern sections of the Upper Great Lakes Region. (David Ludlum) (Storm Data)

1976 - Up to five inches of rain brought walls of water and millions of tons of debris into Bullhead City AZ via washes from elevations above 3000 feet. Flooding caused more than three million dollars damage. Chasms up to forty feet deep were cut across some roads. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - Thunderstorms caused flash flooding and subsequent river flooding in central Lower Michigan. Up to 14 inches of rain fell in a 72 hour period, and flooding caused 400 million dollars damage. (Storm Data)

1987 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, and spawned three tornadoes. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph at Goodnight TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow blanketed parts of the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Central Plateau, with ten inches reported at Mount Evans in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires in the northwestern U.S. reached Pennsylvania and New York State. Hurricane Gilbert, moving westward over the Carribean, was packing winds of 100 mph by the end of the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Havre MT with a reading of 23 degrees. Livingston MT and West Yellowstone MT tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 17 degrees. Thunderstorms produced hail over the Sierra Nevada Range of California, with two inches reported on the ground near Donner Summit. The hail made roads very slick, resulting in a twenty car accident. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2011: Hurricane Erin was off the coast of New Jersey and New York on this day.

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On 9/1/2023 at 4:17 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

How closely do the PRISM numbers agree with the officially tallies from NOAA? A mean of 72.98F would be 15th warmest overall, between 2007 & 1933. I would have thought this would be a Top 10 hottest summer with the record-breaking heat in the south and parts of the west.

Note that the PRISM anomaly is based off 1991-2020 climatology, whereas the NOAA anomalies are based off the cooler 20th century mean [1901-2000]. 

image.thumb.png.dfc925691bf6881317a7251abc6cbb34.png

Also worth noting that while this may be the 15th warmest summer overall, it is warmer nationally than all but three summers prior to 2000 (those three being the notorious drought years of 1934, 1936 & 1988).

With today's data release, NOAA's NCEI has confirmed this to be the 15th warmest summer on record nationally, with a nationwide mean temperature of 73.01F - placing slightly ahead of 1933 and just a hair behind 2007. As noted, only three summers of the 20th century were warmer (1934, 1936 & 1988).

image.thumb.png.8b4a65c792d7e67183f2649d29f9af8d.png

National Time Series | Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)

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