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September 2023


Stormlover74
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24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks very wet/active over the next week even without potential PRE impacts from Lee

Completely talking out of my as*, but to me it’s possibly a lose, lose situation for the coast. Weaker WAR, plus a less amped trough we miss out on the beneficial rain, which we need. But Lee spares us from the worst case scenario, outside of significant beach erosion, which seems inevitable right now. The opposite, and we are potentially looking at a world of hurt if Lee is not allowed to escape east, and gets captured. 

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Today was another day of extreme heat in parts of the East. Highs included:

Albany: 93°
Allentown: 92° (old record: 91°, 1985, 2015 and 2016)
Atlantic City: 93°
Baltimore: 98° (first September heatwave with 5 or more 98° days)
Boston: 93°
Bridgeport: 92° (old record: 91°, 1983)
Concord: 93°
Harrisburg: 94°
Hartford: 95° (old record: 93°, 2007 and 2015)
Islip: 92° (tied record set in 1998)
New Haven: 95° (old record: 85°, 2015) ***New September Record***
New York City-Central Park: 93°
New York City-JFK Airport: 92°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 96° (old record: 90°, 1945 and 2015)
Norfolk: 96°
Philadelphia: 97°
Providence: 92°
Richmond: 100° ***2nd 100° high this month for the first time since 1954***
Sterling, VA: 97° (old record: 95°, 1983 and 1985)
Washington, DC: 98°
Wilmington, DE: 93°
Worcester: 90° (tied record set in 1901 and tied in 1945)

A cooling trend should commence tomorrow and continue through the weekend.

Dangerous Hurricane Lee will likely grow into a Category 5 storm tonight or tomorrow. The ensembles favor recurvature, but the outcome is not yet cast in stone. An area running from eastern New England to Atlantic Canada could face the highest risk of landfall should Lee fail to recurve away from the North American continent.

The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. That forecast is verifying with the ongoing heatwave. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -3.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.706 today.

On September 4 he MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.585 (RMM). The September 3-djusted amplitude was 1.091 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal).

 

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