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September 2023

Stormlover74

By Stormlover74,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay

.    

doncat
doncat

Nice rainbow

donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Three photos of this morning’s sunrise.  

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Much of the Middle Atlantic region roasted under near record and record high temperatures today. The northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England were somewhat cooler.

High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 94°
Baltimore: 99° (old record: 96°, 1937 and 2019) ***7th 99° or above temperature on record for September***
Burlington: 90°
Harrisburg: 97° (old record: 93°, 1964, 2008, and 2015)
Philadelphia: 96° (old record: 93°, 1973, 2008, 2015, 2018)
Richmond: 98° (old record: 95°, 1925, 1947, and 1970)
Scranton: 92° (tied record set in 1929)
Sterling, VA: 99° (old record: 95°, 1985) ***Tied September monthly record***
Trenton: 93°
Washington, DC: 98° (old record: 96°, 2019)
Wilmington, DE: 96° (old record: 95°, 2018)

In the Southwest, El Paso reached 100° for the 63rd day this year. That broke the record of 62 days, which was set in 1994.

Tomorrow through Thursday will be generally fair and hot with temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s well into New England. Middle and upper 90s are likely in Baltimore, Washington, and PHiladelphia. There is a chance that one or more of those cities could reach 100°. A cooling trend should commence late in the week and continue through the weekend.

The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -2.85 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.361 today.

On September 1 the MJO was unavailable. The August 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.743 (RMM).

 

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted
On 8/31/2023 at 9:16 AM, SACRUS said:

Looks like the ghots of Idalia pushed west from the expanding Western Atlantic Ridge on the GFS and Euro.  Clouds / onshore flow / rain LI/New England to muck up the heat Wed - Fri?

Modeling that I like to review is staying on target... I think lots of rain coming up 9/8-15 for the NYC metro into PA/NYS/NJ/LI. WPC is growing its area of general 1.5+ through the 12z/4 cycle.  

How the probable strong TS interacts along the mid and n talc coast is still up for debate. For now, am not ruling out contribution to rain along the coasts as suggested by ensembles---too much uncertainty to be sure right now (for me).  Ensembles have been consistently offering a separate R+ area just of the mid Atlc coast to the s of LI near 9/15 in the ensembling via tropical tidbits. Long-long way to go, in part dependent on the probable TS strengthening and building the 5H ridge to the east-northeast of Bermuda, and in part how the southward extent of the troughing at 5H in the Great Lakes-Tennessee Valley evolves 12-17 time frame.  

I would hope that mariners are monitoring potential for a storm along 70-65W next week, hoping that future trends shunt east of 65W. 

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

The next 8 days are averaging   83degs.(75/91) or +11.

Reached 91 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   90-95, wind nw., scattered clouds, 77 tomorrow AM.

78*(80%RH) here at 7am.     81* at 9am.     86* at Noon.      88* at 3pm.     Reached 93*(H.I. of 104) at 5:30pm.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

 

74 / 71 and overcast. Clouds streaming to the west.  We'll see how much these clouds get in the way for md 90s today.  3 more days of the late summer heat before front approaches later Thu wit clouds and showers.  Peak heat Wed / Thu with 850 MB temperatures forecast >18c - 20c on SW flow.  Only clouds would limit upper 90s in the hot spots on Thu. 

Fri (9/8) warm/humid but front still draped over and nearby with Atlantic ridge slowing the passage.  Think will have hung up front Fri - much of the weekend, luckily wasnt this weekend.  By the 11th  NW flow brings in dry and clears the front.  Next trough and front come through by mid month flow comes around more humid before front moves through.  Later part of the month closing 1/3 looks overall warmer than normal.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif  

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1985)
NYC: 94 (1985)
LGA: 93 (1985)


Lows:

EWR: 53 (2000)
NYC: 51 (1963)
LGA: 54 (2000)

Historical:

 

1925 - The temperature at Centerville, AL, soars to 112 degrees to establish a state record. Every reporting station in Alabama was 100 degrees or above that afternoon. (The Weather Channel)

1929: Early season snowfall occurred in the mountains of Wyoming and the Black Hills of South Dakota on September 5th and 6th. The highest snowfall amount was 16 inches in Fox Park, Wyoming.

1933 - A hurricane hit Brownsville, TX, killing forty persons and causing 12 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1933: A Category 3 hurricane made landfall on South Padre Island, Texas during the late evening hours on September 4th, or Labor Day. The storm caused 40 fatalities and nearly $17 million in damages. With the storm making landfall during a holiday weekend, fatalities could have been much higher. The following is from the report of the official in charge at Corpus Christi, Texas: "Probably never before in the history of Texas hurricanes have such widespread and early warnings been given as were received from Washington in advance of this one. The telegram of Saturday, September 2, warning all persons to avoid inaccessible places over the weekend probably saved thousands of lives."

1950 - Hurricane Easy produced the greatest 24 hour rainfall in U.S. weather records. The hurricane deluged Yankeetown, on the upper west coast of Florida, with 38.7 inches of rain. (David Ludlum)

1950: Hurricane Easy was an erratic and unpredictable hurricane that lingered over the Tampa Bay area for days, dropping torrential rains and causing damage especially in Cedar Key, Florida where the storm eventually made landfall. This hurricane dumped 38.7 inches of rain in 24 hours in Yankeetown, a record for the U.S. at the time, and caused $3.3 million in damage. Total rainfall amounts in Yankeetown was 45.20 inches. 

1975 - Strong winds reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust resulting in a 22-car chain reaction accident on Interstate 10 near Toltec AZ. Two persons were killed, and 14 others were injured. (The Weather Channel)

 

1978: Tropical Depression Norman became the most recent tropical system to make landfall in California near Long Beach as an extra-tropical storm.

 

1987 - Thunderstorms over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States drenched Charleston, SC, with 5.50 inches of rain, and a total of 13.50 inches in two days, flooding homes, and leaving roads and bridges under water. (The National Weather Summary) A tropical storm which formed off the South Atlantic coast was responsible for torrential rains over coastal regions of South Carolina. Between the 30th of August and the 8th of September, Charleston SC received 18.44 inches of rain. The heavy rains caused extensive flooding around the city of Charleston, seriously damaged cotton crops in the eastern part of the state, and resulted in an unusually high number of mosquitos. (Storm Data)

1988 - Five days of heavy rain commenced in west central Florida. Up to 20 inches of rain in four days resulted in extensive urban flooding, and evacuation of 1000 homes. Flooding claimed four lives, and caused more than five million dollars proprty damage. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced six to ten inches of rain in south central Kansas between 6 AM and Noon. Serious flooding was reported around Wichita, with water four feet deep along some roads. A cold front crossing the Northern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Sheridan WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1996: Hurricane Fran made landfall near the tip of Cape Fear, North Carolina with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph on the evening of September 5th. Fran was responsible for 26 deaths and was at the time the most expensive natural disaster ever in North Carolina’s history. 

 

2017: Hurricane Irma became a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. This made Irma one of strongest hurricane ever observed in the open Atlantic Ocean. 

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