SACRUS Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 Sep opens near normal and dry with a NE onshore-ish low. Ridge builds east as deep trough moves into the PNW - WC. Overall warm to hot as flow comes around NE-N - NW and Wrly. Some heat especially inland 9/3 - 9/11. Outside of the ghost of Idalia being pushed back west towards New England 9/7 - 9/9 from the building Wstern Atl Rdge - looks dry and overall warm. Into the beyond overall ridging but need to watch cut off or ULL othr wise riding a warm Sep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Does look interesting to me after Sept 7 for the tropics along the mid Atlc and northeast USA coast...... weakness troughing and tending to develop trough westward and latitudinally further south from the Atlantic and signs of storms in the w Atlc in ensemble members. Two sets of ensembles have in recent cycles shown above normal rainfall for NYC subforum in the period roughly 9/8-15. (EPS/GEPS). Looks like the ghots of Idalia pushed west from the expanding Western Atlantic Ridge on the GFS and Euro. Clouds / onshore flow / rain LI/New England to muck up the heat Wed - Fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 20 hours ago, Northwest NJ said: My anecdotal evidence is that NYC has had very warm Septembers in the last 10 years. Can anyone post a link or website where I can find that information? Sep EWR 2022: 69.7 (+0.5) 2021: 72.4 (+3.2) 2020: 69.1 (-0.1) 2019: 70.8 (+1.6) 2018: 71.4 (+2.2) 2017: 70.9 (+1.7) 2016: 71.8 (+2.6) 2015: 73.4 (+4.2) 2014: 69.8 (+0.6) 2013: 67.2 (-2.) 2012: 69.5 (+0.3) 2011: 71.2 (+2) 2010: 71.6 (+2.4) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 17 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Sep EWR 2022: 69.7 (+0.5) 2021: 72.4 (+3.2) 2020: 69.1 (-0.1) 2019: 70.8 (+1.6) 2018: 71.4 (+2.2) 2017: 70.9 (+1.7) 2016: 71.8 (+2.6) 2015: 73.4 (+4.2) Wow, quite a string of warm Septembers! Great stats...thanks! I suspect we end this September above to continue the streak! We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 I spent some time visualizing long term temp trends last year. The data set was through last December, I believe. So the 2020s data is only 20,21 and 22. But the trends are stark. This all show the distribution of high and low temps (Aug to Nov) and freezing temps in cold season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 Had to put the high temp distribution in another post. And these show the actuals with range for Sept. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 September and October have been our fastest warming fall months in recent decades. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. The summer worked out similarly with July posting the greatest warm departure relative to June and August. ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 GFS and Euro backed off from their 100 degree reading for next week. Mid 90's seems reasonable which makes sense for September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 56 minutes ago, WX-PA said: GFS and Euro backed off from their 100 degree reading for next week. Mid 90's seems reasonable which makes sense for September This is thanks to Tony at PhillyWX for tracking, thru 8/24 individual runs of the GFS have forecast 100(+) degree highs at PHL on 57 occasions. Note - obviously multiple runs with 100(+) degree forecasts for same day Breakdown of those forecasts: 100 degrees - 21 days 101 degrees - 15 days 102 degrees - 9 days 103 degrees - 1 day 104 degrees - 5 days 105 degrees - 3 days 106 degrees - 2 days 110 degrees - 1 day the actual high for the day of this beauty was 84 degrees The average actual highs at PHL for all these triple digit forecast days was 83-84 degrees. One bright spot for the GFS's pending 23 days for 100(+) degree September forecast is at least those days should have an actual average temp in the 90's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 6 hours ago, SACRUS said: Looks like the ghots of Idalia pushed west from the expanding Western Atlantic Ridge on the GFS and Euro. Clouds / onshore flow / rain LI/New England to muck up the heat Wed - Fri? possible. laying low on this but continue to look at something week two Sept. Nothing obvious, for now. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 fwiw..CPC mid afternoon issuance today has D6-10 and 8-14 above normal qpf our area... suggests possibilities of a storm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 sure why not let's ruin a heat wave with a due west moving freak storm 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 A somewhat cooler than normal August is concluding. New York City had a mean temperature of 75.0°, which was 0.9° below normal. After an unseasonably chilly night, tomorrow will be fair and cool. The Labor Day weekend will start cool but turn noticeably warmer. The ECMWF weeklies suggest that the September 4-18 period could see temperatures average above to much above normal across the region. Parts of the region could see high temperatures peak at or above 90° on one or more days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -9.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.007 today. On August 29 the MJO was unavailable. The August 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.986(RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 5 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said: This is thanks to Tony at PhillyWX for tracking, thru 8/24 individual runs of the GFS have forecast 100(+) degree highs at PHL on 57 occasions. Note - obviously multiple runs with 100(+) degree forecasts for same day Breakdown of those forecasts: 100 degrees - 21 days 101 degrees - 15 days 102 degrees - 9 days 103 degrees - 1 day 104 degrees - 5 days 105 degrees - 3 days 106 degrees - 2 days 110 degrees - 1 day the actual high for the day of this beauty was 84 degrees The average actual highs at PHL for all these triple digit forecast days was 83-84 degrees. One bright spot for the GFS's pending 23 days for 100(+) degree September forecast is at least those days should have an actual average temp in the 90's. The GFS appears to have an issue where it overstates temperatures on a fairly regular basis during summer. I've read some speculation that the issue concerns soil moisture (overly dry assumption) and then amplifies the heat. I haven't seen anything definitive on the issue, though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Tough to bet against that record warm pool and SE Canada block. We have seen numerous storms bending back west in recent years. In the old days these storms would have been easy OTS specials. Yup, troughy onshore flow won’t do it for any heat waves around here. Idalia remnants a fly in that ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 to be fair there's the chance the eps is too phased which it has a history of doing at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 7 hours ago, forkyfork said: sure why not let's ruin a heat wave with a due west moving freak storm If this doesn't verify, it'll be more disappointing than Viennetta ice cream. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 15 hours ago, WX-PA said: GFS and Euro backed off from their 100 degree reading for next week. Mid 90's seems reasonable which makes sense for September not one day will reach the mid 90's for nyc next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 55 currently. Feels like September 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 55 currently. Feels like September I am in a little cooler spot than the LI South Shore used to be for me and it’s down to a crisp 56° here at KHVN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 55 currently. Feels like September And then September goes on a 10+ day hiatus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 Looks like only 49 will do it here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Looks like only 49 will do it here Wrong. It snuck down to 48 for the low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am in a little cooler spot than the LI South Shore used to be for me and it’s down to a crisp 56° here at KHVN. Congrats on the new spot. Couldn’t go further north to the snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Congrats on the new spot. Couldn’t go further north to the snow? Thanks. Had family in this area so it worked out easier for me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 63 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 August ended at 75.0[-1.1] The first 8 days of September are averaging 80degs.(71/89) or +7. Reached 80 here yesterday at 6pm. Today: 74-77, wind ne. to w., m. sunny, 63 tomorrow AM. 62*(56%RH) here at 7am. 66* at 9am. 70* at Noon. 73* at 4pm. Reached 76* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 Models are starting to show a possible east coast hit in the long range but it's a long ways out. One thing that's troubling is that a ridge will be in place. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 60 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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