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September 2023 General Discussion


hardypalmguy
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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Another cool one here with 42 for the low.  Point has 91 Sunday!

Some other spots:

Baraga Plains 30

Kenton 31

Paulding 34

Wakefield 34

Ironwood 35

Not sure about up there, but tonight is supposed to be about 5 degrees colder than last night down here.

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16 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Not sure about up there, but tonight is supposed to be about 5 degrees colder than last night down here.

Point has 46 for tonight then a dramatic warm up which I’m looking forward to. 
time to wrap up Summer projects and get ready settle in for Fall. 
what’s the coolest you’ve been?  I know you’re really close to the lake. 

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47 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Point has 46 for tonight then a dramatic warm up which I’m looking forward to. 
time to wrap up Summer projects and get ready settle in for Fall. 
what’s the coolest you’ve been?  I know you’re really close to the lake. 

I haven't dropped below 54 yet, but tonight should beat that.

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Point has 46 for tonight then a dramatic warm up which I’m looking forward to. 
time to wrap up Summer projects and get ready settle in for Fall. 
what’s the coolest you’ve been?  I know you’re really close to the lake. 

Agreed.  I know some on the forum have had plenty of hot weather.  I have only been in the 90s once.  Plus I have a couple more projects I want to complete too.

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On 8/30/2023 at 6:42 AM, A-L-E-K said:

yeah gonna be real nice, no reason to think october is any different 

s hem seeing some freak winter heat, only a matter of time before we get some morch x2 shit but in november/december

That happened for some areas in December 2021...

image.thumb.png.e027436e0971b9cb023eb2894465165c.png

 

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Looks like Sunday will be the hottest day here with a possible 90+ temp. Would be the first for the summer here in town if that pans, and rival the record. Labor day itself will be in the 80's, and that being near record territory for that holiday. But because TH co-op has switched to a.m. readings for the 1st time in it's history in 2021 (as far as I can tell), officially Sunday's high will be recorded on Monday (Labor day), so upper 80's - low 90's would be a record. In the end, it will depend on exact wind direction. If more offshore, looks good, but a little lake air in the mix, and that will suppress the temps some. But away from the shoreline is looking pretty HOT!

Labor Day record high in TH:

1 1929/59/2007 - 86

2 1921/33/36/2008 - 83

As for early Sept days themselves:

Sept 1

1953 - 92

Sept 2

1978 - 88

Sept 3

1925 - 91

Sept 4

1897 - 87

Sept 5

1908 - 90

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This upcoming heatwave over Labor Day weekend looks to be near record-breaking at least in the northern areas of the subforum. Here at Green Bay, our point forecast for both Sunday and Monday is 95 as of right now.  It's a lot harder to get Green Bay up to 95 in general compared to Madison or Milwaukee, but to do it this late in the year is quite extraoridinary. This would be the first time Green Bay has hit 95 or above in September since 1955! And to potentially do it two days in a row is even more spectacular. The only other time Green Bay has exceeded 95 on consecutive days in September was on 09/09-11 1931 where the temp was 95,97,95. If we overperform and reach 96 on either Sunday or Monday it'll be only the third time ever that Green Bay has reached that temp in September behind 09/10/1931 and 09/08/1933. We are also looking at the first 70+ degree lows in September since 2015, which while not nearly as record breaking is still pretty significant.

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11 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

This upcoming heatwave over Labor Day weekend looks to be near record-breaking at least in the northern areas of the subforum. Here at Green Bay, our point forecast for both Sunday and Monday is 95 as of right now.  It's a lot harder to get Green Bay up to 95 in general compared to Madison or Milwaukee, but to do it this late in the year is quite extraoridinary. This would be the first time Green Bay has hit 95 or above in September since 1955! And to potentially do it two days in a row is even more spectacular. The only other time Green Bay has exceeded 95 on consecutive days in September was on 09/09-11 1931 where the temp was 95,97,95. If we overperform and reach 96 on either Sunday or Monday it'll be only the third time ever that Green Bay has reached that temp in September behind 09/10/1931 and 09/08/1933. We are also looking at the first 70+ degree lows in September since 2015, which while not nearly as record breaking is still pretty significant.

I can see you hitting at least 100 on Sunday, possibly 103-105.

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The NWS point-click forecast centered on KMSP, shows a high of 96 on Saturday, 100 on Sunday, and 99 on Labor Day (see below). Saturday's forecast value is one shy of the daily record, and the other two would be new daily records. More significantly, this would be the second latest 100+ reading on record for the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.

The latest 100+ reading is September 10, 1931, when the mercury is said to have climbed to an incredible 104F. That is the only 100+ reading on record in the month of September in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area dating back to 1872. The current second latest 100+ reading is August 17, 1947, when it reached exactly 100F, so that September 10, 1931 is really an aberration. Obviously, can't break the September 10, 1931 record, but there is a decent chance of the second latest 100+ reading on record, and potentially the first time two days of 100+ were recorded in the month of September if Labor Day is just slightly warmer than presently forecast.

image.thumb.png.9baa36e6d4baedcfe5e0c0d9cfd60e49.png

For the record, there is only one occasion when the month of August has had more than one 100+ reading in the Minneapolis-St. Paul threaded record - 1947, when it reached that figure 4 times. And there are only two dates in the entire threaded history where it's reached 100 or better after August 15 - 8/17/1947 & 9/10/1931.

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20 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The NWS point-click forecast centered on KMSP, shows a high of 96 on Saturday, 100 on Sunday, and 99 on Labor Day (see below). Saturday's forecast value is one shy of the daily record, and the other two would be new daily records. More significantly, this would be the second latest 100+ reading on record for the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.

The latest 100+ reading is September 10, 1931, when the mercury is said to have climbed to an incredible 104F. That is the only 100+ reading on record in the month of September in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area dating back to 1872. The current second latest 100+ reading is August 17, 1947, when it reached exactly 100F, so that September 10, 1931 is really an aberration. Obviously, can't break the September 10, 1931 record, but there is a decent chance of the second latest 100+ reading on record, and potentially the first time two days of 100+ were recorded in the month of September if Labor Day is just slightly warmer than presently forecast.

image.thumb.png.9baa36e6d4baedcfe5e0c0d9cfd60e49.png

For the record, there is only one occasion when the month of August has had more than one 100+ reading in the Minneapolis-St. Paul threaded record - 1947, when it reached that figure 4 times. And there are only two dates in the entire threaded history where it's reached 100 or better after August 15 - 8/17/1947 & 9/10/1931.

I think we break 100 on Sunday. The relatively dry airmass should help temperatures overachieve compared to the last heatwave. 
 

Lucky me, I’ll be in Chicago this weekend for a wedding and miss the misery. 

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On 8/31/2023 at 9:18 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

Upper 80s in western Pennsylvania looks about right, too. That's what the forecast is calling for Sunday. You never see the GFS spit out 110F for Pittsburgh.

The GFS is terrible in the Midwest. Every summer it fails to take in humidity from corn sweat and even regular humidity. Last heat wave it showed 40F dew points here. It was 80F. The model is a long term outlook model, not a pinpoint accurate one.

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