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September 2023 General Discussion


hardypalmguy
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Interesting about flamingos going rogue. Reminds me of the instances up my way when we've had mountain lion sightings, and even a black panther once. Critters going rogue for whatever reason isn't uncommon as far as I'm concerned. They can travel long distances in a short period of time. Now if they take up residence, or keep migrating back, then that is a different issue (CC could be one of them). Whitetail deer have been radio collared, and tracked here in MN. Sometimes they have made their way all the way over to the UP in just a a couple weeks. Critters move around all the time. I'll bet if one did some intense research into old paper articles, we would find more of these instances. Just saying.

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

The pleasant temps and dry weather this month continues.  It's been nearly 2 weeks since any decent rain at my house...  hopefully that changes this weekend.  Leaves falling quickly as peak has passed here.

Wish I would have been able to get up there for peak (it a great excuse to get to the UP).  At least it can be just as nice around here with fall colors (just a couple weeks from peak).

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On 9/27/2023 at 4:29 PM, Stebo said:

Yeah I wouldn't say this is CC related except the frequency of these instances occurring more often. When Sandy happened in 2012 many states in the Midwest set records for sightings of unusual birds that got pushed in from the east.

Arctic snowy owls have been spotted in michigan in recent summers and were even spotted in los angeles recently. 

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On 9/27/2023 at 10:16 PM, Stebo said:

After its parade of 110s all summer I don't think I can trust it on anything.

It's turned into a joke. It will be interesting to see if it continues with its long-range cold bias in the winter. That will tell us if it's just a bias of extremes or if it has switched to a warm bias. Ive never seen it show temperatures so far over 100° and even close to 110° for us like it did countless times this summer, sometimes as close as day 5 or 6. And we end with a max of 90°:lol:

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This last stretch of Sep has been magnificent, 8 days at least of great weather, one day where it was mainly cloudy but no rain. Looking back at my typically awful 7 day for accuracy, it did very well correctly predicting most of this week within a few degrees. Remarkably stable pattern my highs and lows (around 9C-10C every day) are the same in a transitional period with this climo. One of the best last 3rd of Sep ever.

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On 9/29/2023 at 10:05 AM, Brian D said:

Shwrs/stms on the way this morning. Flood watch out tonight as another 2" of rain possible. Ground is soaked now, and heavier downpours will likely run off more quickly. Didn't take long to go from parched to swamped.

That was a bust. Only 0.12", but that's ok. We've had a good month for precip. 7.95" (3.53" avg). Temps ended up warm for the month with +1 on the max, and +6 on the min. Time correction would affect the min the most being the TH co-op is an a.m. stn now. That would be around ~+1 correction for this month. I've figured out TOB (time of observation bias) corrections before many times. A little time consuming. Colder months generally see a +1-2 correction in mins, and +0.5-1 in max. This type of correction is a part of the "milk plant" corrections in various datasets. They have a formula they use depending on lat/long, and month, and the same value is used each respective month every year. It's an avg calculated over many years. Actual TOB values for a given month every year are quite variable, as the wx patterns tend to be a little different. I've spent many hours of research doing these calculations just to see how an actual TOB, instead of avg TOB, affects a stn record. Interesting research. Changing reporting times, especially from pm to am, does affect their trends significantly. And most stns have switched from pm to am now. 

Anyone on the sub a co-op observer? Or has been? 

If anyone is interested in doing that for a local co-op site, and you know the report time, find the nearest hourly stn (whether arpt, or PWS), and get the midnight-midnight monthly max avg, and min avg. And then get the avg between the report time of your co-op. 7 am is TH co-op's time, so I get the max-min each day between 7am using the same mid-mid hourly dataset, then avg that data for the month. Subtract 7am max avg from midnight max avg, and the same with min. The difference will be the correction to your co-op data. If the 7 am value is less, that will be a + correction (typical of am stns), and if it is more, that will be a - correction (typical of pm stns). Because PWS data online is fairly robust now, try this with 2-3 stns around the co-op to get a good idea of the TOB correction.

If you want to do longer research, it gets a little hairy with DST in the past. That makes a big difference. You need to know when it starts, and ends each year, and if you start, say in 1948, you'll need to know when DST comes into effect at that arpt site. Each state is different. DST issues have been, and still are an issue. And if you do start way back then, data is top hr only until the 90's-2000's. To stay consistent, and keep the amount of data your working with reasonable, stay top hr only to the present. The difference is small with sub hr data in the mix. And just a side note, the 1960's data is 3hr reporting times, so you can't really use that decade. At least that was what I ran into a few years back. Might be different now.

Get data here.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps-and-geospatial-products

Under "Climate Monitoring", select "hourly and sub hourly". A map will come up. Find your station with search (easiest), or zoom in the map. Left side panel will have "Hourly Global" checked at the top. Click the wrench icon, and a dialog box will show on map. Select rectangle, or polygon for your highlighter. Over the stn(s) you wish to select, left click, hold, and highlight. Release, and the stn(s) you've selected will appear on the left side. Check the box(es), and choose "add to cart" at the bottom. New tab will open with yearly data you can download in csv. Have fun :) 

 

A good read on the TOB topic is here.

https://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/MP/ISWSMP-81.pdf

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