September 2023 General Discussion

[bowtie`]

7 hours ago, Chambana said:

Little over an inch in the rain gauge, kinda nice to have a true autumn feeling day, love a grey overcast day once in awhile. 
 

Harvest is in full swing, I noticed even beans are in full harvest mode too. Ready for our first wound up October system. 

Meanwhile, just a little bit east of you, a big fat zero in the tippy bucket. Location, location, location. 

[hardypalmguy]

Soon fall colors won’t peak until December.

[hawkeye_wx]

I picked up a very quick quarter inch midday as a thin line lifted north through the area.  It was the heaviest downpour I've seen in months.  Cyclone, from the same line, got over an inch, so he's really doing well this month.

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Soon fall colors won’t peak until December.

You're right. In southern Georgia. 

[TheClimateChanger]

@hardypalmguy

 

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I picked up a very quick quarter inch midday as a thin line lifted north through the area.  It was the heaviest downpour I've seen in months.  Cyclone, from the same line, got over an inch, so he's really doing well this month.

Yeah it's definitely greening up now.  Today's 1.30" brings us to 4.20" for month. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I picked up a very quick quarter inch midday as a thin line lifted north through the area.  It was the heaviest downpour I've seen in months.  Cyclone, from the same line, got over an inch, so he's really doing well this month.

Looks like the rain shield associated with the vort max slid just NW of you. Ouch. 

Feels like Mother Nature is trolling me, higher probabilities of heavy rain all around but a wedge of 10% right through the metro. 

[michsnowfreak]

The sun sets on summer. Welcome astronomical Autumn!

[hawkeye_wx]

Models were split/back-and-forth regarding whether or not the tail of the Iowa disturbance would build south enough to hit Cedar Rapids.  It did not.  A couple slow-moving, strong cells are dumping heavy rain nw of CR, but late Saturday into Sunday will have to come through for us.

[Spartman]

IND AFD:
 

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

A developing tropical low pressure system just southeast of the
Carolinas is forecast to move northward onshore later today. This
system should then slowly slide northward along the Atlantic
seaboard and slow down. As it does so, it will largely prevent
systems to our west from freely advancing eastward. As such,
subsidence between the two will lead to relatively quiet conditions
this weekend.

Surface flow will primarily be influenced by the tropical system
with surface winds out of the east or northeast beginning Saturday.
This should allow for some weak cold air advection leading to a
reduction in high temperatures through the period. Expect highs in
the mid 70s for most locations as opposed to the lower 80s we are
seeing today. Less-than-ideal radiative cooling conditions may help
moderate low temperatures a bit and limit morning fog potential.

Clouds begin to increase late Saturday and into Sunday as a west
coast trough ejects into the Plains. Most guidance stalls and
eventually breaks down the trough before it reaches Indiana.
However, guidance is trending in the direction of a weak cut-off low
developing from the dying trough and drifting eastward. Moisture
appears limited with continued east/northeasterly flow at the
surface, but enough forcing may be present for some isolated showers
or thundershowers. As such, slight chance PoPs are introduced from
Tuesday onward. Ensemble guidance is is better agreement with the
formation of the weak cut-off low than its subsequent evolution.
Forecast uncertainty therefore increases late in the week.

Despite differences in guidance regarding the departure of the
aforementioned upper-low...enough agreement exists for increased
confidence in quieter weather by Friday/next weekend.

Meanwhile, the ILN AFD:
 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Complex long-term period as the combination of the low pressure (TC
Ophelia) and weak upper-level disturbances to the west meander over
the Ohio Valley and surrounding regions through the entire period.
Zooming out and examining the longwave pattern over North America
reveals a longwave ridge axis extending well north over Hudson Bay
late this weekend into early next week. This is largely due to a
longwave trough becoming established over the northwest CONUS and
western Canada. While there are uncertainties in the exact location
of the feature, ensemble guidance (WPC clusters) are fairly
confident in a closed or cut-off low becoming established over the
region through midweek, before eventually evolving into a more
classic Rex Block pattern (Ridge to the north with low to the south)
by the end of the week.

Due to the general weakness of the overall pattern described above,
confidence is high that the Ohio Valley region will avoid widespread
hazardous weather through the period. However, it does not appear
the period will be rainfall free as has been the case for much of
September. After the remnants of TC Ophelia dissipates, the
breakdown of the circulation allows for the below normal PWAT
anomalies to be replaced by above normal values. The values are not
significantly high, but it does point to a likely day-to-day weather
change, especially through midweek. Conditions are expected to be
more cloudy, with occasional rain shower chances across the area.
Expect high temperatures to be limited into the 70s due to these
conditions.

The high confidence regarding the overall pattern doesn`t result in
high confidence for the daily rainfall forecast. This will be
largely dependent on the location of the closed/cut-off upper low
that eventually organized. At this time, the best chances are for
Wednesday and Thursday, with ensemble guidance in agreement of a
consolidated upper low in place. Over the next few days, the
evolution of the pattern will continue, with chance of rainfall
fluctuating up and down throughout much of next week.

 

[Brian D]

Fog yesterday burned off midday then came back in the eve. Showers started then too. Off, n on showers have produced approx 3/4" so far. Looking at the first + anoms in precip since early Spring. Roommate took his girlfriend up the shore this week. Maples are starting to peak right now. Maple ridges looking very nice.

[mhou]

Finally some rain starting to move into the MSP area.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

It’s been so long I’d forgotten the simple joy of hearing rainfall on the roof. 1.30” overnight 

[hawkeye_wx]

Epic bust.  

For two weeks models locked in on this weekend for potential widespread, good rain.  Only a few days ago the Euro had 2-3+ inches falling across all of Iowa and surrounding areas.  The GFS was similar.  Even as they backed off, they still showed scattered showers and storms moving into eastern Iowa Saturday night.  Instead, there wasn't even anything in central Iowa and now a backdoor front has swept dry air into eastern Iowa, effectively ending any rain chance.

Cedar Rapids has officially received 0.00" from this system.  I got 0.23" Friday.

The only hope remaining is the upper low as it drifts southeast across the region Monday night into Tuesday.  Most models have been keeping most of the rain northeast of here, from se MN to northern IL.  A few models are tracking the upper low a bit farther sw and tease some decent rain here, so there is still a chance to salvage something out of this.

[Brian D]

Been raining pretty steady since yesterday. ~3.5+" so far since Friday pm, and still coming down.  I'll take the gloomy wx, as we really needed this. There is a flood warning between here, and Duluth until later this evening. 

[Frog Town]

No Winter thread yet but I'll just place this right here......very interesting.  

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[Spartman]

Remnants from Ophelia look to be retrograding towards our region, making tomorrow a day for suicide weather. Sun's going to hard to come by for much of this week.

[CheeselandSkies]

On 9/22/2023 at 3:23 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

@hardypalmguy

 

Brendan used to work at the station I work at in Madison. Great guy.

[A-L-E-K]

lol these temps

 

[hardypalmguy]

On 9/22/2023 at 3:23 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

@hardypalmguy

 

I was down there taking pics.  3 miles from my house.  If this isn't a STRONG sign of climate change, what will the deniers need to see it?

[SolidIcewx]

7 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

I was down there taking pics.  3 miles from my house.  If this isn't a STRONG sign of climate change, what will the deniers need to see it?

I figured in your case it’s a strip tease. Get them to your house and then you got a real slice of Florida in Wisconsin 

but that’s crazy they made their way to this latitude 

[weatherbo]

Loving the dry weather lately.  Peak is here, close to schedule.   Took this yesterday.

[luckyweather]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol these temps

 

little throwback to when Chicago was near the equator

[hardypalmguy]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol these temps

 

That's going to be your January climo in about 50 years.

[Brian D]

4.26" recorded so far at TH co-op for this event, and more showers moving through this morning. Drier conditions are pretty much gone now in NE MN.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

I was down there taking pics.  3 miles from my house.  If this isn't a STRONG sign of climate change, what will the deniers need to see it?

Its a sign that they got caught in the winds of Hurricane Idalia. Make sure to let us know how they are doing when its 0F out.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

That's going to be your January climo in about 50 years.

Looks more like Wisconsin's late May climo.

[hardypalmguy]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its a sign that they got caught in the winds of Hurricane Idalia. Make sure to let us know how they are doing when its 0F out.

If you believe the BS concocted story of a hurricane over a month ago blowing them up here, I have a bridge to sell you.  They are up here because the planet is warming.

[CheeselandSkies]

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its a sign that they got caught in the winds of Hurricane Idalia. Make sure to let us know how they are doing when its 0F out.

Remnants of Idalia didn't come anywhere near Wisconsin. It headed east back out over the Atlantic.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

A rainy weekend has become a rainy Monday with some thunder to boot. Seems like it’s been forever since we’ve had a washout day like this. I think we’ve about doubling our precipitation since June 1st the past several days.