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September 2023 General Discussion


hardypalmguy
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8 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Typical early autumn weather today. Scattered showers and mild temps. Won’t amount to much at all, maybe 0.25” but a nice change of pace to see something falling from the sky. 

Was a pretty nice day, had a couple showers go through when we were at the Edina Art Festival outside today, had to hide under someone’s tent when the downpour came lol

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20 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Last night's Euro a lot more generous with a swath of rain from Iowa into northern IL Monday, with widespread 0.5-1.0 inch rains.  Not enough to do much to help the overall drought situation, but would still be nice to see if it comes to fruition.  Temps may have a hard time getting out of the 60s Monday as well under a heavy overcast/all day rainer.

Models are struggling with this wave.  The Euro has generally been one of the more bullish models, but it has been all over the place.  Yesterday's 12z run mostly took Cedar Rapids out of it, but the new 00z run is the most bullish, yet, with a swath of rain through Cedar Rapids of well over an inch.  The GFS and other models have also become more bullish overnight.  After this wave, models are very dry into late September, so we really need this.

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3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are struggling with this wave.  The Euro has generally been one of the more bullish models, but it has been all over the place.  Yesterday's 12z run mostly took Cedar Rapids out of it, but the new 00z run is the most bullish, yet, with a swath of rain through Cedar Rapids of well over an inch.  The GFS and other models have also become more bullish overnight.  After this wave, models are very dry into late September, so we really need this.

Yeah the models aren't handling this well to be sure.  Kinda up in the air what any one location may see from this.  

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What the f'ing heck is going on with the models and tonight's wave?  The Euro has flipped flopped several times now.  Last night it went more bullish and north than ever, dropping 1.7" here.  This morning it's right back south and only 0.30" here, now the driest of all models.  The ensemble mean is flopping around, too.  This is stupid.

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4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

What the f'ing heck is going on with the models and tonight's wave?  The Euro has flipped flopped several times now.  Last night it went more bullish and north than ever, dropping 1.7" here.  This morning it's right back south and only 0.30" here, now the driest of all models.  The ensemble mean is flopping around, too.  This is stupid.

Papa Euro is just trying to get us ready for snowstorm season 

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On 9/7/2023 at 1:20 PM, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Mississippi River north of the twin cities is near record lows. Currently below the low water threshold. 

1D2383A1-82F6-41BA-A392-DFE0DBCC76B6.png

Impressive. The gage at Memphis is down to -9.9 feet. This appears to be the third lowest level on record beind 10/21/2022 (-10.81') and 7/10/1988 (-10.7'). It's forecast to drop to -10.6' by Wednesday, before recovering somewhat, but maintaining -9 to -10 feet, before dropping back below -10 feet early next week. The long-range forecast calls for dry weather over much of the basin, so we could make a run at lowest level on record later this month.

image.png.afbacd8572b624e4839a1e1fe2294339.png

image.png.1525ced98b4727f2bf7404010aebd63b.png

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7 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

We fared pretty well on this side of the lake.  1.22" so far at home today and I am not convinced it is over yet.

Very slow at getting over here.  Not sure what we are going to get as it keep decreasing on radar as it gets over here.   That can change this evening so we'll see.

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Just had a fun extended weekend of travel.  Happened to be in St Joseph MO on Friday morning and got a really good T-storm that morning with some decent CG.  Happened to be driving on I80 in central NE on Saturday with those big storms.  Beauties but stayed just ahead of them as I didn't want to get involved with hail (1-2"were reported).  Sometimes got put the car before the storm :lol:

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I wasn't around last week, so just catching up...

Topped out at 94 at ORD, 93 at MDW, and 92 at RFD on Sept 3rd.
Topped out at 94 at ORD, 93 at MDW, and 92 at RFD on Sept 4th.
Topped out at 94 at ORD and 92 at MDW on Sept 5th.

...2023 90°+ Day Tally...
21 - ORD
19 - MDW
15 - LOT
14 - DPA
14 - ARR
13 - RFD
13 - PWK
9 - UGN

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It's been downright chilly up here past couple days with highs in the 50's.  Looks like a couple frosty nights are in store as well.  At least it's not snowing... yet.  Leaves changing quickly.  I'd estimate peak to be in 2 weeks.

MQT

Today’s “On this Day in Weather History” post is a sign of the changing seasons. From this point forward, snowflakes could be in the air any day now. That said, there are no indications for the pattern to turn cold enough for snow in Upper Michigan anytime soon.

2019923644_376797312_694724432692087_9090979526335141482_n(2).thumb.jpg.94580b98f22a21921ce11b8cb8a0167a.jpg

 

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24 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

It's been downright chilly up here past couple days with highs in the 50's.  Looks like a couple frosty nights are in store as well.  At least it's not snowing... yet.  Leaves changing quickly.  I'd estimate peak to be in 2 weeks.

MQT

Today’s “On this Day in Weather History” post is a sign of the changing seasons. From this point forward, snowflakes could be in the air any day now. That said, there are no indications for the pattern to turn cold enough for snow in Upper Michigan anytime soon.

2019923644_376797312_694724432692087_9090979526335141482_n(2).thumb.jpg.94580b98f22a21921ce11b8cb8a0167a.jpg

 

Frost advisories for northern Minnesota. There will be patchy frost outside the metro area tonight as well. Warms up quick late week though.

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11 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Frost advisories for northern Minnesota. There will be patchy frost outside the metro area tonight as well. Warms up quick late week though.

Also looks like a good chunk of the UP will see a decent freeze tomorrow night.  Most of the sub looks cool. Alek looking toasty in the city. 

1486651707_ndfd_sfctmin2.us_mw(1).thumb.png.2335114468c2a212cdd872f090317b74.png

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