Floydbuster Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 For those of us old enough to remember Isidore 2002, I don't say anything until the southern drift near the Yucatan Peninsula stops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Going to be a stronger GFS run tonight as it had a more organized system near the Yucatán. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 27, 2023 Author Share Posted August 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: A little hard to tell but it looks like circulation will come very close or over Cozumel. The thing here is that the circulation is small enough and the current convective intensity is low enough that if a large MCS were to fire to the east, either the current center would be pulled east toward it, or a new center could form. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Dang Prospero, we are getting our yearly. Tampa is gonna get a landfalling Hurricane (not actually ever gonna happen) out of the way early in 2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 0Z UKMET: ~40 mile E shift at LF into NW FL Big Bend vs E Panhandle on 12Z run; once inland sharper turn to go offshore SC vs 12Z going over Augusta and then staying inland through SC into much of NC TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 85.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.08.2023 0 21.0N 85.5W 1004 25 1200UTC 27.08.2023 12 20.3N 85.6W 1002 27 0000UTC 28.08.2023 24 20.6N 85.3W 999 32 1200UTC 28.08.2023 36 21.7N 85.5W 999 35 0000UTC 29.08.2023 48 22.8N 85.5W 1000 38 1200UTC 29.08.2023 60 24.5N 85.6W 1000 41 0000UTC 30.08.2023 72 26.5N 85.3W 998 39 1200UTC 30.08.2023 84 29.2N 84.1W 995 45 0000UTC 31.08.2023 96 31.9N 81.8W 992 42 1200UTC 31.08.2023 108 33.6N 77.7W 991 43 0000UTC 01.09.2023 120 34.4N 73.4W 992 56 1200UTC 01.09.2023 132 34.4N 69.0W 996 52 0000UTC 02.09.2023 144 33.2N 65.7W 1000 45 1200UTC 02.09.2023 156 33.6N 63.2W 999 43 0000UTC 03.09.2023 168 33.5N 60.3W 997 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Pressure down to 1001mb according to the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Pressure down to 1001mb according to the NHC. BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...DEPRESSION BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 86.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. A Weatherflow station on Cozumel recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on surface observations from Cozumel and Playa del Carmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 00z Euro into the Big Bend of FL... 987mb SLP around hr 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Just offshore near SC/NC border at 120 at 999mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z Euro into the Big Bend of FL... 987mb SLP around hr 90 A little west of runs yesterday. Recon will be taking off around 6am and we’ll have a bunch of data going into the models so hopefully the end up with a high confidence forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: A little west of runs yesterday. Recon will be taking off around 6am and we’ll have a bunch of data going into the models so hopefully the end up with a high confidence forecast. At the very least, I am more interested on the data they collect out ahead of the system across the Gulf. Curious to know if the models are right concerning the non-existence of dry air and the observations yielding decreasing shear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 42 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z Euro into the Big Bend of FL... 987mb SLP around hr 90 This is the strongest Euro yet as others were in low 990s at landfall and is very near the 0Z UKMET landfall point. This would be a big mess for the Big Bend wind-wise and especially storm surge-wise in this very vulnerable high poverty area as was discussed earlier ITT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 So far dmax hasn't helped with new storm development yet. Was sort of thinking it had potential to really get going tonight but so far it's simmered down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 I would keep an eye on the southern convective blow up. It is developing an inflow tail which leads me to believe it might become dominant as it rotates up around the edge of the gyre. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 5 AM advisory says they could be too low, now peaks at 90mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Some of the models were right about the vorticity dropping southward and not doing too much, for now. Cancun radar shows a bit of a misalignment. The convection and mid level rotation appears a bit east of the surface center. The surface center moved ssw for a while, but now appears to be getting pulled back east a bit toward the new convection. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 TD10's overall appearance was better 24 hours ago. It is trying to get its act together southeast of Cozumel this morning. The question is can it maintain the convection today and organize the core or will it fizzle during d-min like yesterday? The first recon plane is headed in from the east, but it is still several hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 There's a nice area of convection popping up over the center as it appears on radar. The center appears to be well to the southeast of Cozumel and I don't see any land interaction happening as models were thinking might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 There are clearly some negative forces affecting TD10. Convection blew up this morning and tried to align the various levels together, but satellite and Cancun radar suggest an area of sinking air is pressing down from the north, which is eroding the convection and pushing it south of the weak surface circulation. All of the deep moisture is south and well east of the center. The global models must have seen this. Edit: The surface center has performed a bit of a loop overnight and this morning. It passed southward over Cozumel, then continued southward for a while, but then turned east, passing under this morning's convection, and has now moved well out from under the convection and may be moving northeastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Not sure if the llc is feeling the effects of the deeper convection to the east or what but it’s getting pulled that direction in a hurry on visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Not really much to say this morning other than for reasons earlier described it looks like the well defined LLC we were all tracking yesterday and overnight is a fragile feature. Not really going to have thoughts on the models and system until recon has had a chance to fully sample the environment and examine the TD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Not sure if the llc is feeling the effects of the deeper convection to the east or what but it’s getting pulled that direction in a hurry on visible Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm. Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean. If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go. If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down. If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm. Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean. If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go. If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down. If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned! Looking at the water vapor map looks like the main vortex is a naked swirl for now a bit of NNE shear... also I am assuming the upper level low over Louisiana will be the feature that drags Depression #10 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Some evidence of minimal TS intensity on the latest set of obs from recon but it’s still early in the flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 995.4mb extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Holding at TD 10 at 11am Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 So far this morning, the overall cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has not become significantly better organized. The small center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery, and convective banding features are still not very well defined. The current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory which is in line with the latest Dvorak Satellite estimates. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, flying at around 12000 ft, is near the center of the system taking Doppler radar wind velocity measurements. These data should provide valuable information on the structure of the cyclone for initializing the numerical weather prediction models. The center of the cyclone appears to have been moving in a small clockwise loop overnight and into this morning, and it will probably complete this loop today. The initial motion estimate is now around 090/2 kt. Steering currents should remain weak through today and tonight. Beginning on Monday, a mid-level ridge starts to build near southern Florida and eastward. This evolution should cause a generally northward motion during the next couple of days. In 48 to 72 hours, a mid-level trough dropping into the eastern U.S. will likely induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the system across the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast on Wednesday. The official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, since strong winds, heavy rains and dangerous storm surges extend well away from the center. The cyclone will be moving over waters of high oceanic heat content over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a moist mid- to low-level air mass for the next few days. An upper-tropospheric trough is predicted to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72 hours. Although this feature could produce some moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system, positive vorticity advection and diffluent upper-level flow to the east of the trough will likely be conducive for strengthening. The official forecast, like the previous one, calls for the cyclone to reach hurricane status over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72 hours. This is at the high end of the latest intensity model guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast, have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later today. 2. Heavy rainfall is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding and landslides across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba with tropical storm conditions possible on the Isle of Youth. 3. Scattered flooding from heavy rainfall is likely over in portions of the southeast U.S. by mid to late week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.7N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.6N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 24.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 26.2N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 28.9N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 33.0N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 11 am stays at TD. I don’t like criticizing the pros much but I do not understand at all why this hasn’t been upgraded. Pressure and SFMR are in full support.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Dropsonde shows center pressure ~995mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 That's a pretty good surface pressure for a young, disjointed system with a naked center. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 000 WTNT65 KNHC 271513 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia. The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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