Hurricane Idalia

[Chinook]

This isn't very circular very more. Rectangular hurricane. Honestly I said that because the gap in the observations is a long rectangle. Well anyway, 988mb is still pretty low but believable as it has gone up about 48mb as a result of landfall and convergence.

 

 

 

[Wannabehippie]

Downgraded to a TS on latest update.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

26 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Because the catastrophic storm that shut down the whole west coast of Florida was a relatively small, fast mover that hit rural swampland. I imagine GA and SC get it worse

I have family on Hilton Head island.  What type of effects do you think we are expecting there?

[nwohweather]

Downgraded to a TS on latest update.

This was really well forecasted

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Man this place died off after landfall

Not enough death&destruction

[Kevin Reilly]

Looks like Idallia should re-emerge off the coast just north of Hilton Head Island shortly by say 8-9 pm timeframe.  High clouds have taken over the sky here in southeastern Pennsylvania sun shining through high clouds. 

[HiltonHeadWx]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I have family on Hilton Head island.  What type of effects do you think we are expecting there?

I live on Hilton Head.  I’ve recorded 2.4” of rain today, thus far, with a tad over 2” yesterday in three quick hitting thunderstorms. Winds were fairly light most of day, picking up in late afternoon, but here near Dolphin Head on the northern tip of the island (on Port Royal Sound), I haven’t seen any gusts over 45mph. The island takes hurricane threats very seriously and has a pretty good and thorough plan of action whenever a storm threatens. Many businesses, government offices, schools, etc all closed today, just in case earlier forecasts of hurricane winds and a 2-4 foot tidal surge came to pass. Fortunately, as is often the case, Hilton Head has basically dodged a bullet and I suspect most everything will be back to normal tomorrow. Here it’s pretty much “expect the worse, be prepared, and hope for the best”. Again, we apparently lucked out!  
 

 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, HiltonHeadWx said:

I live on Hilton Head.  I’ve recorded 2.4” of rain today, thus far, with a tad over 2” yesterday in three quick hitting thunderstorms. Winds were fairly light most of day, picking up in late afternoon, but here near Dolphin Head on the northern tip of the island (on Port Royal Sound), I haven’t seen any gusts over 45mph. The island takes hurricane threats very seriously and has a pretty good and thorough plan of action whenever a storm threatens. Many businesses, government offices, schools, etc all closed today, just in case earlier forecasts of hurricane winds and a 2-4 foot tidal surge came to pass. Fortunately, as is often the case, Hilton Head has basically dodged a bullet and I suspect most everything will be back to normal tomorrow. Here it’s pretty much “expect the worse, be prepared, and hope for the best”. Again, we apparently lucked out!  
 

 

We did too. My highest winds were before 5PM. I had earlier thought per models/NHC that 5PM was to be the start of the worst. I think the main reason is that it got to its closest point just after 5PM instead of the previously expected 8PM.

[Chinook]

confirmed tornado near Wilmington NC

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[gymengineer]

Charleston at 9+ ft above MLLW about half an hour ahead of high tide:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?id=8665530
 

This event could slip between Matthew and Irma for #4. 

[shaggy]

17 minutes ago, Chinook said:

confirmed tornado near Wilmington NC

 

Bout crapped my pants. Was out on the porch watching and listening for the larger vortex to my southeast when another circulation formed and dropped less than a mile from me. Confirmed both by radar and law enforcement down the road from me. 

[Chinook]

wow, I didn't even think of it, but you can barely make out a supercell shape, even though the yellow/orange/red kind of dominates the image

[lee59]

Even have the outermost clouds up here on Long Island. 

[shaggy]

Going back throught my images I saved as I was focused on the larger CC drop and missed the one right at the house. Wasn't a clear circulation there as the bigger couplet was SE of.me. wonder if it was a satellite tornado on the edge of the bigger meso

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, HiltonHeadWx said:

I live on Hilton Head.  I’ve recorded 2.4” of rain today, thus far, with a tad over 2” yesterday in three quick hitting thunderstorms. Winds were fairly light most of day, picking up in late afternoon, but here near Dolphin Head on the northern tip of the island (on Port Royal Sound), I haven’t seen any gusts over 45mph. The island takes hurricane threats very seriously and has a pretty good and thorough plan of action whenever a storm threatens. Many businesses, government offices, schools, etc all closed today, just in case earlier forecasts of hurricane winds and a 2-4 foot tidal surge came to pass. Fortunately, as is often the case, Hilton Head has basically dodged a bullet and I suspect most everything will be back to normal tomorrow. Here it’s pretty much “expect the worse, be prepared, and hope for the best”. Again, we apparently lucked out!  
 

 

Thanks for the report!  
my family stayed with their daughter in Raleigh and are heading back tomorrow.

It’s amazing that Hilton Head has had such good luck with hurricanes over the years.

[MANDA]

Pretty scary.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1696958390289805663

 

[WxWatcher007]

7 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

Wow. Great pics. Snapped those trees like toothpicks. Glad to see you’re okay. I‘m surprised you have any cell service.

Thanks. I had to drive south for signal. Damage was bad between Perry and Steinhatchee, and gradually improved further south. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

We did too. My highest winds were before 5PM. I had earlier thought per models/NHC that 5PM was to be the start of the worst. I think the main reason is that it got to its closest point just after 5PM instead of the previously expected 8PM.

How did you make it out? Hope all is well with you and your family.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Forecast landfall location of Steinhatchee, FL was perfect for Idalia, however, the forecast timing was too late by 90 minutes and the intensity was 10MPH too intense (125MPH vs 135MPH).
My thoughts as to why to inform better future forecasts are included.
FINAL GRADE: A

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/dangerous-hurricane-idalia-well-forecast.html?m=1

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. I had to drive south for signal. Damage was bad between Perry and Steinhatchee, and gradually improved further south. 

How did you make it out? Hope all is well with you and your family.

I've had no power for 6 hours. About 1/3 of the area lost power. Otherwise, thank goodness we got pretty lucky compared to how bad I thought the winds might get based on earlier NHC forecasts. The highest official wind gust was near 52 mph and there were only a few near that high. But had those forecasts held, we likely would have had gusts into the 60s, which would have meant more trees down and a bigger mess.
 

 I was comparing Idalia with 2016's Hermine, which peaked at 80 mph/981 mb 5 hours before FL landfall near where Idalia hit. It went steady state through landfall rather than either further strengthening or weakening. From landfall, it took a near identical NE path to a little W of Savannah. Per the archives at closest approach Hermine was at 31.9N, 82.0W..55 mi WSW of Sav and 989 mb/50 mph. (It was moving NE at 18 mph.)

 To compare, Idalia was at 32.2N, 81.7W or 40 mi W of Sav with 984 mb/70 mph. (It was moving a similar NE at 21 mph.)

 So, they were at a similar distance away at their closest but Idalia was noted to have 20 mph higher winds (70 vs 50).

 What's really strange is that Hermine produced 6 mph stronger winds than Idalia!

 From Hermine wiki:

"Hermine weakened while crossing from Florida into Georgia, but still produced sustained winds of 45 mph at Savannah, with gusts to 58 mph."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine#:~:text=Hermine weakened while crossing from,(93 km%2Fh).

 Idalia's highest sustained/gust at Savannah were 6 mph lower with 39 sustained/gusts to 52. I remember clearly that Hermine was significantly stronger. And keep in mind that Idalia landfalled at 125 mph vs Hermine's only 80.

 I'm thankful but also amazed at the comparison.

 Any thoughts from anyone about this comparison?

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, gymengineer said:

Charleston at 9+ ft above MLLW about half an hour ahead of high tide:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?id=8665530
 

This event could slip between Matthew and Irma for #4. 

Strong High pressure to the north building off the New Jersey coast with the gradient developing is going to do some bad things for the Carolinas.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Forecast landfall location of Steinhatchee, FL was perfect for Idalia, however, the forecast timing was too late by 90 minutes and the intensity was 10MPH too intense (125MPH vs 135MPH).
My thoughts as to why to inform better future forecasts are included.
FINAL GRADE: A

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/dangerous-hurricane-idalia-well-forecast.html?m=1

Gotta agree.  Easy A

 

[WEATHER53]

20 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Strong High pressure to the north building off the New Jersey coast with the gradient developing is going to do some bad things for the Carolinas.

This is catching off guard 

[RU848789]

13 hours ago, HiltonHeadWx said:

I live on Hilton Head.  I’ve recorded 2.4” of rain today, thus far, with a tad over 2” yesterday in three quick hitting thunderstorms. Winds were fairly light most of day, picking up in late afternoon, but here near Dolphin Head on the northern tip of the island (on Port Royal Sound), I haven’t seen any gusts over 45mph. The island takes hurricane threats very seriously and has a pretty good and thorough plan of action whenever a storm threatens. Many businesses, government offices, schools, etc all closed today, just in case earlier forecasts of hurricane winds and a 2-4 foot tidal surge came to pass. Fortunately, as is often the case, Hilton Head has basically dodged a bullet and I suspect most everything will be back to normal tomorrow. Here it’s pretty much “expect the worse, be prepared, and hope for the best”. Again, we apparently lucked out!  
 

 

Question for you.  In theory, wind gusts greater than 65 mph are usually needed to uproot mature trees and there was a report of 30 trees down on HHI, so I assume then, that at least at times and maybe in isolated locations, winds probably gusted over 65 mph, even if those speeds weren't recorded at the few stations on the island.  So, was wondering what the max recorded gusts were on HHI (the public info statement from the NWS office doesn't show any gusts on HHI over 40 mph, unless I'm not aware of place names).  Any input on that?  

Edit: looking at the PNS for the area, there were gusts of 69 mph on Tybee Island about 7 miles SW of HHI, 66 mph in Beaufort about 10 miles NE of HHI and 64 mph in Calibogue Sound about 1-2 miles SW of HHI.  I just find it hard to believe that some places on HHI wouldn't have had 60+ mph gusts given reports of gusts that high surrounding the island, despite the reports of only ~35 mph gusts - looks more like the vagaries of wind variability and maybe instrument issues on HHI stations.  

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CHS&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

https://www.wtoc.com/2023/08/31/not...island-residents-grateful-low-impacts-idalia/

https://www.weather.gov/media/pqr/wind/wind.pdf

[Floydbuster]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

I've had no power for 6 hours. About 1/3 of the area lost power. Otherwise, thank goodness we got pretty lucky compared to how bad I thought the winds might get based on earlier NHC forecasts. The highest official wind gust was near 52 mph and there were only a few near that high. But had those forecasts held, we likely would have had gusts into the 60s, which would have meant more trees down and a bigger mess.
 

 I was comparing Idalia with 2016's Hermine, which peaked at 80 mph/981 mb 5 hours before FL landfall near where Idalia hit. It went steady state through landfall rather than either further strengthening or weakening. From landfall, it took a near identical NE path to a little W of Savannah. Per the archives at closest approach Hermine was at 31.9N, 82.0W..55 mi WSW of Sav and 989 mb/50 mph. (It was moving NE at 18 mph.)

 To compare, Idalia was at 32.2N, 81.7W or 40 mi W of Sav with 984 mb/70 mph. (It was moving a similar NE at 21 mph.)

 So, they were at a similar distance away at their closest but Idalia was noted to have 20 mph higher winds (70 vs 50).

 What's really strange is that Hermine produced 6 mph stronger winds than Idalia!

 From Hermine wiki:

"Hermine weakened while crossing from Florida into Georgia, but still produced sustained winds of 45 mph at Savannah, with gusts to 58 mph."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hermine#:~:text=Hermine weakened while crossing from,(93 km%2Fh).

 Idalia's highest sustained/gust at Savannah were 6 mph lower with 39 sustained/gusts to 52. I remember clearly that Hermine was significantly stronger. And keep in mind that Idalia landfalled at 125 mph vs Hermine's only 80.

 I'm thankful but also amazed at the comparison.

 Any thoughts from anyone about this comparison?

Weakening hurricanes have winds that just ain't bursting down the surface the way strengthening hurricanes are. 

[WxWatcher007]

Haven’t looked much, but I’m not sure what to make of the model confusion over Idalia’s long term track yet. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Haven’t looked much, but I’m not sure what to make of the model confusion over Idalia’s long term track yet. 

Lul wut

 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Lul wut

 

He probably hasn't looked since some models were showing it coming back around to Florida. 

[Kevin Reilly]

17 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

He probably hasn't looked since some models were showing it coming back around to Florida. 

Yea the idea of Idallia coming back to the coast is a distant memory should just keep on moving to the right out to sea. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

He probably hasn't looked since some models were showing it coming back around to Florida. 

Yeah, I was out of the loop