Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: That tracks given the 10pm advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 00z spaghetti models Nearly unanimous Taylor County landfall centered on ~9AM EDT. Then it tracks go mainly just inland from Savannah, which is about the worst possible track in terms of winds. Also, high tide there is an astronomical high tide due to perigee and full moon and it's at 8:30PM, which is near the time of the center being closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 000WTNT65 KNHC 300157TCUAT5Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone UpdateNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020231000 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT......CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES INLAND...NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicatethat Idalia has strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft has fallen to 960 mb (28.35 inches).The National Hurricane Center has begun hourly position and intensity updates on Idalia. The hourly updates will continue as long as Idalia's eye is easily trackable in ground-based radar data.SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...27.4N 84.6WABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDAABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day. Yeah I was thinking about Dennis, great analog to reference. Inner structure almost a carbon copy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The eye does appear to be a little small given the size of the CDO. This usually indicates that there will be an ERC at some point. Only about 8 to 10 hrs before landfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Master of Disaster said: There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? I could be wrong but I *think* recon found N-S elliptical eye 12 km x 8 km. EDIT- I think it is 12 nm x 8 nm. Quote G. E18/12/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day. yeah thats a nice comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 recon says 957.6mb on the minute-by-minute plot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Thinking we got an EWRC going on 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Thinking we got an EWRC going on Yea, TWC said the same. Take 'em down on max intensity if that is indeed the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Thinking we got an EWRC going on Don't think you can call it that yet. Still clear evidence that the band is spiraling inward and some of the "moat" is probably from very strong convection in the northern semicircle of the eyewall. I've noticed this a few other times tonight. If that outer band continues to gain substance then maybe though I think we're probably a few hours from that minimum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, hlcater said: Don't think you can call it that yet. Still clear evidence that the band is spiraling inward and some of the "moat" is probably from very strong convection in the northern semicircle of the eyewall. I've noticed this a few other times tonight. If that outer band continues to gain substance then maybe though I think we're probably a few hours from that minimum. I’m 50/50 on it. Recon hasn’t really found a double wind maxima. But man radar looks moaty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, Tezeta said: I’m 50/50 on it. Recon hasn’t really found a double wind maxima. But man radar looks moaty. It did for a few scans but it has since filled in and the outer band continues to spiral inwards, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: It did for a few scans but it has since filled in and the outer band continues to spiral inwards, for now. Regardless of whether or not its technically an ERC, I would think that would keep things in check at least to a degree in terms of intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regardless of whether or not its technically an ERC, I would think that would keep things in check at least to a degree in terms of intensity. Not necessarily, as mentioned this happened earlier tonight on a similar scale and Idalia managed to continue intensification. Unless it’s a true ERC then intensification should continue. I mean, while this was happening, Recon Hunters got 957mb so it didn’t hinder pressure falls at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Still cat 2 at 11pm . 958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 They now have landfall intensity at Category 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Not necessarily, as mentioned this happened earlier tonight on a similar scale and Idalia managed to continue intensification. Unless it’s a true ERC then intensification should continue. I mean, while this was happening, Recon Hunters got 957mb so it didn’t hinder pressure falls at all. Yes, I am not saying it will halt (unless it truly is ERC), but these little structural nuances are probably why it has yet to really rip a hole in the atmosphere as of yet. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I'm still amazed there is a sub 960 mb cane in the Gulf and it's not a major 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Still cat 2 at 11pm . 958 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29Location: 27.7°N 84.5°WMoving: N at 18 mphMin pressure: 958 mbMax sustained: 110 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: They now have landfall intensity at Category 4 Wouldn't take much of a leap to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 It's no doubt an organizing outer concentric band. But the eyewall is ripping right now. By far the best it has looked. Idalia has a lot of banding features spiraling into even the outer concentric band. It very well may lead to a full on ERC, but it may still strengthen quite a bit before that can starve the current eyewall. We may see this level off intensification prior to landfall, but it could still deepen quite significantly tonight before that leveling occurs. Will be interesting to watch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Water vapor is often good in these scenarios when you're watching eyewall dynamics. I think we're about 2 or 3 hours from it truly clearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Not necessarily, as mentioned this happened earlier tonight on a similar scale and Idalia managed to continue intensification. Unless it’s a true ERC then intensification should continue. I mean, while this was happening, Recon Hunters got 957mb so it didn’t hinder pressure falls at all. Charlie and Ida kept deepening until landfall despite having concentric eyewalls. This outer eyewall seems to be providing a stable feeder band to the inner eyewall at the moment, helping maintain organization if anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: It's no doubt an organizing outer concentric band. But the eyewall is ripping right now. By far the best it has looked. Idalia has a lot of banding features spiraling into even the outer concentric band. It very well may lead to a full on ERC, but it may still strengthen quite a bit before that can starve the current eyewall. We may see this level off intensification theough landfall, but it could still deepen quite significantly tonight before that leveling occurs. Will be interesting to watch. Really interesting but NHC states intensification will continue on landfall bringing intensity to Cat 4 as it landfalls. Seems to be specifically calling for a frictional-induced RI at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, Amped said: Charlie and Ida kept deepening until landfall despite having concentric eyewalls. This outer eyewall seems to be providing a stable feeder band to the inner eyewall at the moment, helping maintain organization if anything. Seems to be a climo with these gulf canes approaching Florida. Ian at one point had this feature if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 11 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: Still thinking 140 is very plausible late tonight...then a slight weakening just prior to landfall... RI, I would think is about 6 -12 hours away. 11 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: I don't think the eye will clear out till about 8:00 or 9:00 (eastern) tonight. Takes several hours after closed EW is observed per aircraft, in my experience. Next 6-8 hrs should see another 15mb drop...it's go time for RI. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 26 minutes ago, hlcater said: It did for a few scans but it has since filled in and the outer band continues to spiral inwards, for now. Moat just filled in and inner eyewall is intensifying, so you're probably right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Pretty incredible radar presentation right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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