Doc Jon Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Hey, 960 on the extrap? Is that right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, Doc Jon said: Hey, 960 on the extrap? Is that right?! it says 960.6 on the minute-by-minute recon obs zoom-in as shown on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, GoAPPS said: Pinhole eye forming. I thought the same thing. The eye is def tightening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 That eye is looking pretty mean right now! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Latest dropsonde says 962 mb with a 25 kt wind, so 960 mb..... but only 94 kts flight level, 79 kts SFMR in the southeast quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Actually Cedar Key has suffered from three major hurricane landfalls, in 1896, 1950 and 1985. Further north is where they have not been hit in the past. My guess for landfall is 20 miles east of St Marks at cat-3 intensity around 15z. I see 1896 and 1950 but not 1985 for Cedar Key landfall: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1985.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Rate looks like 2-3mb/hr of deepening currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Looking good! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Peekaboo 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 We're at the point leading up to landfall that if it isn't some solid analysis or discussion then expect that the posts will be removed. Chit chat, predictions, one word responses etc. should go into banter. 10 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CO SciFan Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I am seeing a pinwheel heart eye on Radarscope. Sent from my SM-G998U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The band headed into Sarasota and points West had some hurricane force winds off the deck. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: The band headed into Sarasota and points West had some hurricane force winds off the deck. . I'm not finding them on SailFlow. Where should I look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 IR now shows the eye clearing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I think there will be a path through S Ga akin to like Ivan did in S Al in 2004. We were in BayMinette then and from there through Atmore, Monroeville and points N he ripped it up good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, Master of Disaster said: IR now shows the eye clearing out. Can see it on satellite imagery too. Pinhole eye, so I anticipate based on previous major canes that feature pinhole eyes…a period of rapid and steep pressure falls are near. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 When is the next recon scheduled? Kinda surprised they are not overlapping them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 There’s a few mesovortices rotating around the eye, not something we typically see with Category 3 hurricanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 This 18z Euro track is meterological chicken if I've ever seen it -- I mean it basically trucks due north until the very last second, then it gets pulled NE, then it kind of turns back NNE. That's going to make for some tense radar-watching in the morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Can see it on satellite imagery too. Pinhole eye, so I anticipate based on previous major canes that feature pinhole eyes…a period of rapid and steep pressure falls are near. Definitely happening right now as we speak and will likely continue between now and say landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I do think she'll keep strengthening until landfall. Not enough time for an EWRC. Cat 4 isn't out of the question 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 To be a fly on the wall of Tallahassee WFO right now. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 First of a few tornado watches:https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0660.html. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Castaway said: Start’n to whistle. I wonder how much turnover in the bath water it’ll do. If by chance, another hurricane were to track through in the similar area here. And how long it would prohibit RI on the next would be storm within the next weeks. From what I remember not long. Just a random quick thought. From this morning to now, it has been an impressive display to watch. Up in the big bend, shelf and water depths are relatively shallow compared to the rest of the gulf. If this was moving slow, it’d churn up a good bit of the OHP. In this case, not as much with the storms forward speed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, beanskip said: This 18z Euro track is meterological chicken if I've ever seen it -- I mean it basically trucks due north until the very last second, then it gets pulled NE, then it kind of turns back NNE. That's going to make for some tense radar-watching in the morning. ~15 mile SE change in track vs 12Z Euro. Landfall still in Taylor county but central rather than NW. Entire track inland is similarly shifted slightly SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Idalia is making pretty pictures. I'm glad it is not going up Tampa Bay as we were concerned about yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO. It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet. And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide. The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Mello said: The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO. It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet. And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide. The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours. What else would it be then? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, Mello said: The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO. It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet. And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide. The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours. You felt the need to announce that talking about a pinhole eye is premature but will likely be correct in an hour? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I'm liking this- a huge gap between spiral bands. Surprising but figure the longer the better , keep power on. Thinking now the strongest winds will be on the backside. Water surge around Cedar Key 15', that is insane and will wipe the countryside clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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