Windspeed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Papin! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, SluggerWx said: Look at the OOCL Southampton charging across the Gulf directly in front of Idalia. With a 16 kt forward speed, aren't they kind of driving directly into a strengthening hurricane? Only boat in the area. Any marine experts out there able to see how much of a gamble they're taking?https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:689722/zoom:6 Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk That was 12 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Mr. Hazelton... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 16 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 110 mph at the next advisory?? We will find out soon. 965mb pressure on latest NOAA flight as of a few minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 That was 12 hours ago? Gotcha, didn't see the timestamp. Thanks!Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Mr. Hazelton... He’s a tad late to the party, Idalia is currently strengthening into a Category 3 as I type this. Considering it’s got 12hrs left, I assume “likely” is a typo. He meant to say Idalia will intensify into a Category 3. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 234400 2649N 08438W 6968 02836 9625 +156 +129 230012 021 028 002 00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Not here for analysis, but just wanted to send a thank you to all Mets and chasers. The wobble east seems to have been corrected more NNE now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 105 mph @ 8 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29Location: 26.9°N 84.7°WMoving: N at 16 mphMin pressure: 965 mbMax sustained: 105 mph 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Good chance of Cat 3 by the 11 pm advisory. We'll see. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Good chance of Cat 3 by the 11 pm advisory. We'll see. I’d say that’s probably a definite at this point. 8pm advisory had 965 but it’s down to 962 currently. When does NHC start updates every hour like at what lead time? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 On the cusp of becoming a major hurricane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 962 is pretty low pressure for a cat 2 in the Gulf. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I’d say that’s probably a definite at this point. 8pm advisory had 965 but it’s down to 962 currently. When does NHC start updates every hour like at what lead time? It's usually whenever circulation is in good view of the radar, like it is now. I'm sort of surprised they haven't begun those kind of updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I wonder if the NHC will issue a special advisory if Idalia reaches Cat 3 status before the 11 pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 962 is pretty low pressure for a cat 2 in the Gulf. I was told once that sometimes it take a little bit of time for the winds to catch up with a rapidly deepening storm. Not a real long time, but a couple of hours at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Starting to think that my 125kt 940mb landfall prediction from this morning might end up being too conservative. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The eye is warming fast. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Clear hot tower showing up in the NE eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 this is going beast mode just before landfall whats up with that the last few years? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: this is going beast mode just before landfall whats up with that the last few years? Warm…errr…hot gulf waters. Low wind shear. Lack of dry air. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Actually Cedar Key has suffered from three major hurricane landfalls, in 1896, 1950 and 1985. Further north is where they have not been hit in the past. My guess for landfall is 20 miles east of St Marks at cat-3 intensity around 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: I was told once that sometimes it take a little bit of time for the winds to catch up with a rapidly deepening storm. Not a real long time, but a couple of hours at most. I think it’s also embedded in an area of overall anonymously lower pressure. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Barring a small miracle looks like this thing will make cat 4 tonight. She’s blowing up fast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Intensification rate reminds me a bit of Ida. Ida was sluggish, only gradually intensifying until the evening then really started to ramp up. It quickly blew up to high-end category 4 status in only a few hours. That is why I am not ruling out a similar intensification rate given we still have about 12 hours remaining. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=10L&product=ir Eye see you... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Pinhole eye forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 If Idalia is not at least a 115 mph hurricane at the 11 pm advisory I will be shocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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