Hurricane Idalia

[beanskip]

85 W Longitude a pretty good measuring point for track. If it never gets on the plus side of 85, that will be good news for TLH. If it sneak across -- even for a bit -- that won't bode well. 

[Hotair]

That little eastward jog on the Sat loop has me a bit worried here in Tampa 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, wkd said:

I'm not a big believer in the idea that 'climo' plays any role in the outcome of any particular event, since it doesn't have any bearing on current synoptic setups.  I would love to see a statistical analysis of U.S landfalls using origin of a depression, SST, winds aloft, position of troughs and ridges and many other parameters. I will admit though that any tropical cyclone entering the Gulf will hit land somewhere unless it dissapates.

Well, not physiologically, but it does tell us areas that are perhaps more geographically prone than others...like Hateras vs the Georgia coast.

[SolidIcewx]

Starting to get into better radar range. Sorry for so few frames can only post up to 7.8mb

[WxWatcher007]

NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. 

[SolidIcewx]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

That little eastward jog on the Sat loop has me a bit worried here in Tampa 

Wobbles do happen in strong/strengthening tropical cyclones

[KPITSnow]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. 

That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

NE eyewall sampled. 964.6mb extrapolated. FL winds peaked at 103kt. Peak SFMR of 84kt. 

That's due east of the center, first recon flight will make a true NE to SW pass soon. 

[BYG Jacob]

Category 2 confirmed

[KPITSnow]

One thing to keep in mind with Tallahassee. If it gets in the eyeball it will be on the western side which is usually good, but we saw with Michael what a rapidly intensifying storm can do when Panama City got raked by the western side. 

[MANDA]

Just now, beanskip said:

85 W Longitude a pretty good measuring point for track. If it never gets on the plus side of 85, that will be good news for TLH. If it sneak across -- even for a bit -- that won't bode well. 

TPC had forward motion at 050 degrees earlier today.  Latest advisory is a 360 degree heading, about 5-10 miles east of 85W.  Suspect landfall is is between 83 to 84 west around or just before sunrise tomorrow.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

That's due east of the center, first recon flight will make a true NE to SW pass soon. 

Yeah, was just about to post a correction. Thanks. 

[ROOSTA]

First feeder band descending on the hood, downstream gusts 40-50mph. How long will power stay?  

[Amped]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. 

There was almost a 100% of it intensifying a lot over the next 6 hrs. Easy call by NHC to stay ahead of it.

[jacindc]

Earlier TWC showed video of street flooding in Ft. Myers Beach. Hope people up the coast who won't "take a direct hit" are noting that.

[hlcater]

Eye diameter on radar is about 10nm at 20,000ft so it is likely ~9.5nm at flight level and we had a drop of probably 3-4mb between passes. From 972 to probably 968ish. Looks like its go time.

 

Update: 968 confirmed. That's a big pressure drop.

[Hotair]

965 mb

[Hotair]

[Doc Jon]

Lightning in the eyewall again - North and even Western sides too, looks like she's getting ornery!

[hawkeye_wx]

4 mb drop in last 1 hour 24 minutes.

[WxWatcher007]

Latest VDM with interesting characterization of the eye

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 22:11Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:44:51Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.28N 84.74W
B. Center Fix Location: 180 statute miles (290 km) to the W (262°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 4kts (From the ENE at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Ragged
G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
G. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (96.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix at 21:41:47Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 181° at 103kts (From the S at 118.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix at 21:40:55Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WSW (244°) of center fix at 21:46:18Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 313° at 64kts (From the NW at 73.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix at 21:47:27Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,458m (8,064ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,460m (8,071ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 21:40:55Z

[Tezeta]

Concentric eyes 

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest VDM with interesting characterization of the eye

 

 

Can see that on radar. Though it doesn't look like an EWRC to me. Looks like growing pains of inner core organization.

Also supported by the fact that there is no outer wind maxima visible on the aircraft data.

[Windspeed]

Concentric eyes 

It's clearly due to me posting that there isn't time for an ERC prior to landfall. Murphy's Law. The eyewall appears to be intensifying, perhaps a merger? Perhaps the outer banding is involved in the new impressive bursts. At any rate, the pressure is falling, not steady state or rising, so no clue.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[wkd]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, not physiologically, but it does tell us areas that are perhaps more geographically prone than others...like Hateras vs the Georgia coast.

Appreciate the response but I don't see how this applies to the current situation. Hatteras and also the Capes in New England will certainly experience more adverse effects from coastal storms due to their eastward location.  But how does that apply to the current situation in the Gulf?

[Nibor]

Composite from the past 10 hours.

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

That should settle the question on it being deserving of 100mph. That’s close enough. 

At the time though it’s a little stretch to go 85 kts from 91 kts from FL winds. That was over 90 min ago too. 

[wkd]

Just now, Nibor said:

Composite from the past 10 hours.

What is your radar source?

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a better appearance on radar and satellite.