Hurricane Idalia

[CoastalWx]

Still work to do. Going to wait until tonight I think for any RI.

[BYG Jacob]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still work to do. Going to wait until tonight I think for any RI.

How so?

[MANDA]

Southeast rains.  Unusual to see widespread shower / T-Storm activity out ahead of a hurricane like this.  Usually sinking air in advance.  Looks to me like a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) ongoing.  Bands of rain/storms along Fl west coast are more directly related to Idalia.

[Looking to the skies]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Southeast rains.  Unusual to see widespread shower / T-Storm activity out ahead of a hurricane like this.  Usually sinking air in advance.  Looks to me like a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) ongoing.  Bands of rain/storms along Fl west coast are more directly related to Idalia.

Wind was ahead and with them. I am in Hazlehurst, Ga. It has been quiet up to the showers in the last 2-3 hours. I have been through 6/7 hurricanes. 

[wkd]

20 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Why is there not a plane in the storm right now, in advance of the crucial, day-before-landfall 5 p.m. advisory?

Why does NHC still have a track that doesn't/barely includes Tallahassee/St. George even as all three hurricane models and the GFS show landfall there?

I mean, I never thought I'd be Criticize the NHC Guy, but I really don't get it. 

I'm pretty sure the 5pm cone will be shifted left.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

How so?

Because satellite presentation to me says it has work to do. As others have stated, RI more likely overnight.

[Normandy]

franklin’s spike in intensity has strengthened the ridge between Idalia and itself, which is pushing Idalia further left in the short term.  If I’m in Tallahassee I’m a bit nervous.  As it’s been stated the storm is looking excellent and is most certainly going to strike as a major.  Only question is how strong (and I’m seeing upper cat 4)

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, beanskip said:

Yeah I know.

I guess my point is, when's the last time you can remember an NHC cone where at 30 hours the CMC is 100 miles outside the cone and the GFS is outside it or just straddling its edge?

 

1. Indeed, the 12Z CMC is outside the cone although for the record it's ~50 rather than 100 miles outside of it. The 12Z CMC is at Apalachicola while left side of cone is at Alligator Point, 50 miles E. But it is notable that it's outside the cone.

2. One of the issues is that Idalia's cone is rather narrow (~100 miles wide at FL coast). To compare, here was Ian's cone then, which was a bit wider:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_with_line_and_wind

 

2. Now I'll address the CMC's horrible left bias regarding Ian, which made landfall near Port Charlotte at 19Z on 9/28/22. Here were the 12Z 9/27 runs for Ian:

ICON Port Charlotte
CMC Tampa
GFS just N of Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers

 Note that CMC was still up at Tampa, which is 70 miles to the north/left of the actual Ian landfall that occurred just 31 hours later. IF Idalia were to make landfall 70 miles to the right of today's 12Z CMC, that would be well within the cone. Also, keep in mind that the prior CMC run (0Z 9/27) was way up in the Big Bend, or ~200 miles away from actual landfall! So, the CMC appears to have a severe left bias.

3. The 12Z GFS is on the left edge of cone (Alligator Point). The 12Z Euro is in W Taylor County or ~25 miles E of the GFS/~25 miles W of the cone's center. The 12Z ICON/UKMET are in mid Taylor Count ~15 miles E of Euro or ~10 miles left of mid-cone.

 To summarize the 12Z runs:

-CMC 50 mi left of cone's left edge

-GFS left cone edge/50 mi left of cone center

-Euro 25 mi left of cone center

-UKMET/ICON 10 mi left of cone center

-So, all five left of cone center

-So, 12Z runs favor moving cone a bit to the left at 5PM advisory.

[emblaze2]

3 minutes ago, Normandy said:

franklin’s spike in intensity has strengthened the ridge between Idalia and itself, which is pushing oxalis further left in the short term.  If I’m in Tallahassee I’m a bit nervous.  As it’s been stated the storm is looking excellent and is most certainly going to strike as a major.  Only question is how strong (and I’m seeing upper cat 4)

I think you need to add Idalia to your device's dictionary.

[MANDA]

Interesting from NWS Tallahassee.  Didn't realize a major had never entered that region before.

[CCHurricane]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Interesting from NWS Tallahassee.  Didn't realize a major had never entered that region before.

One for the history books if Idalia makes landfall as a major. Also looks like relative to history, the area has been long overdue. 

Apalachee Bay Hurricane Landfalls

• Hermine (2016) - Category 1
• Alma (1966) - Category 1 
• Unnamed (1941) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1935) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1899) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1882) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1880) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1873) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1867) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1852) - Category 2

[WxWatcher007]

Ok, confusion cleared up. Recon IS in the air and is starting to fly toward the center in a likely NW to SE pass. 

[BretWx]

This looks a bit.... like something we've seen before.... 

[WxWatcher007]

970.5mb extrapolated pressure. FL and SFMR not impressive with peak of 53kt at FL and 63kt SFMR. First pass though.

[hawkeye_wx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

970.5mb extrapolated pressure. FL and SFMR not impressive with peak of 53kt at FL and 63kt SFMR. First pass though.

Recon data doesn't look much better than earlier.  Dropsonde will probably say a 1 or 2 mb drop, that's all.  No wind in the nw eyewall isn't what I expected.

[Intensewind002]

8 minutes ago, BretWx said:

This looks a bit.... like something we've seen before.... 

Never use the NAM for hurricanes…

[a5ehren]

Kinda looks like it is having trouble wrapping the deep convection around the eye. Surprised.

[WxWatcher007]

Dropsonde was 972mb with 5kt wind

[Kevin Reilly]

I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south.  I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. 

 

Above it what I said last night around 9:30 PM

I don't think the second part will be right obviously, but the dry air as a limiting factor for intensity could.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, a5ehren said:

Kinda looks like it is having trouble wrapping the deep convection around the eye. Surprised.

Hurricanes are fickle. The environment has to be pristine for upper end 4-5s. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south.  I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. 

 

Above it what I said last night around 9:30 PM

There is no way it goes that far south. 

[WxWatcher007]

Continuing the pass into the SE eyewall, recon found FL winds between 84-91kts. That’s legit. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Continuing the pass into the SE eyewall, recon found FL winds between 84-91kts. That’s legit. 

Pretty hard to not find at least some decent winds with a 970 pressure. Like others have said it takes near perfect conditions to creat a 5. The classic is Katrina going from a cat one to a 5 while passing right over this same area. 

[Covidea]

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ok, confusion cleared up. Recon IS in the air and is starting to fly toward the center in a likely NW to SE pass. 

Coming out of Ft. Lauderdale

[WxWatcher007]

First VDM--eyewall open in the NW

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 20:26Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 20:21:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.91N 84.82W
B. Center Fix Location: 190 statute miles (306 km) to the WSW (255°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,879m (9,446ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 5kts (From the SSW at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63kts (72.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NW (312°) of center fix at 20:20:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 53kts (From between the NNE and NE at 61.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NW (312°) of center fix at 20:20:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 69kts (79.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix at 20:25:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 237° at 91kts (From the WSW at 104.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 20:26:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,067m (10,062ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (135°) from the flight level center at 20:26:30Z

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty hard to not find at least some decent winds with a 970 pressure. Like others have said it takes near perfect conditions to creat a 5. The classic is Katrina going from a cat one to a 5 while passing right over this same area. 

You knew Katrina meant business when it exited the SW coast of FL more organized than when it came in on the SE coast.  That storm just had the look from the get go.  Classic "brown ocean" intensification while tracking across the Everglades.

[NJwx85]

First SVR warning of the day here, just SW in Osceola County. Saw some good structure 

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

One for the history books if Idalia makes landfall as a major. Also looks like relative to history, the area has been long overdue. 

Apalachee Bay Hurricane Landfalls

• Hermine (2016) - Category 1
• Alma (1966) - Category 1 
• Unnamed (1941) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1935) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1899) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1882) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1880) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1873) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1867) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1852) - Category 2

Maybe this won't end up as a major H landfall. Fingers crossed! Perhaps their climo says that there are geographic factors that make it extremely difficult and that that will come into play for Idalia. Thoughts?

[MANDA]

Idalia is trying hard based on satellite and radar.  Really thought by this time (late afternoon) we would have started to see an eye starting to pop and clear out on satellite.  So far recon is not overly impressive. 

[WxWatcher007]

Having an open eyewall stunts intensification, but it doesn't stop it of course. I'm interested in what recon finds in the other three quadrants. It's clearly intensifying based on that SE pass and IR. It could also be the case that the winds are trying to catch up to the pressure falls. NHC may up the winds at 5pm just like they did earlier on the assumption the NE quad will produce.