eaglesin2011 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 can defiantly see the overall size starting to increase.. means more precip in a wider area .. especially down the road 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 The pressure dropped 1 mb since the last recon pass (50 minutes). The visible loop shows new towers beginning to pinwheel around the eye, so it should be entering another strengthening phase. It's just a question of how fast it can solidify the eyewall and drop the pressure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The pressure dropped 1 mb since the last recon pass. The visible loop shows new towers beginning to pinwheel around the eye, so it should be entering another strengthening phase. It's just a question of how fast it can solidify the eyewall and drop the pressure. Looks like we may be getting an attempt to clear out the eye as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The pressure dropped 1 mb since the last recon pass. The visible loop shows new towers beginning to pinwheel around the eye, so it should be entering another strengthening phase. It's just a question of how fast it can solidify the eyewall and drop the pressure. Rotating upshear too. If it can solidify the eyewall the intensification pace should pick up substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 110kts NHC. I can buy that. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/093743.shtml?cone#contents I'm rather flabbergasted by this map. The cone doesn't even include St. George Island? And barely touches TLH? Wow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 110kts NHC. I can buy that. I had 125mph yesterday.....the 150 peak may be off, though. I think the delay means maybe a slightly lower peak, but negligible impact on LF intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had 125mph yesterday.....the 150 peak may be off, though. I think the delay means maybe a slightly lower peak, but negligible impact on LF intensity. I feel like it could really take off prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like it could really take off prior to landfall. Yea, writing up now and I can't rule out 5. You guys know me and am not about hype, but this will be bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had 125mph yesterday.....the 150 peak may be off, though. I think the delay means maybe a slightly lower peak, but negligible impact on LF intensity. 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like it could really take off prior to landfall. Thoughts on LF location? I feel like I can’t rule out a direct hit in the Bay south of Tallahassee, but could easily see a last minute east trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thoughts on LF location? I feel like I can’t rule out a direct hit in the Bay south of Tallahassee, but could easily see a last minute east trend. Stand by....just gimme a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 We should have a separate thread for amateur forecasts and those who want to make every post about theirs 4 2 4 2 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thoughts on LF location? I feel like I can’t rule out a direct hit in the Bay south of Tallahassee, but could easily see a last minute east trend. Steinhatchee seems a good place to post up for now. I agree it could be a bit NW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Tezeta said: We should have a separate thread for amateur forecasts and those who want to make every post about theirs I made one post...and then one more because someone asked. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 6z GFS would be a hell of an event for TLH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had 125mph yesterday.....the 150 peak may be off, though. I think the delay means maybe a slightly lower peak, but negligible impact on LF intensity. Still thinking 140 is very plausible late tonight...then a slight weakening just prior to landfall... RI, I would think is about 6 -12 hours away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I made one post...and then one more because someone asked. Yeah we don't want any amateur forecasts -- if that happens it might turn into a weather message board or something ... 4 2 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: Still thinking 140 is very plausible late tonight...then a slight weakening just prior to landfall... RI, I would think is about 6 -12 hours away. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Still thinking 140 is very plausible late tonight...then a slight weakening just prior to landfall... RI, I would think is about 6 -12 hours away. Yeah definitely agree with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely agree with that. Severe sleep deprivation and markedly decreased productivity about 18-24 hours away- 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 That’d be in line with the hurricane models that show takeoff this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely agree with that. I don't think the eye will clear out till about 8:00 or 9:00 (eastern) tonight. Takes several hours after closed EW is observed per aircraft, in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: I don't think the eye will clear out till about 8:00 or 9:00 (eastern) tonight. Takes several hours after closed EW is observed per aircraft, in my experience. Looking at the potential west or east moves...while I understand a stronger storm may be more responsive to beta drift off to the NE...you can see a weakness extending NW into LA at 500mb. I don't necessarily see a kicker to the east and that weakness concerns me for perhaps a track on the western side of the envelope at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Could not pick a better place to landfall in Florida is terms of coastal population and coastal infrastructure. Mostly Wildlife Management areas and marsh. Will keep surge damage / loss to a relative minimum. Inland wind damage is another story. Lots of tree damage and power outages on tap. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z GFS would be a hell of an event for TLH. 12z too now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 6 minutes ago, MANDA said: Could not pick a better place to landfall in Florida is terms of coastal population and coastal infrastructure. Mostly Wildlife Management areas and marsh. Will keep surge damage / loss to a relative minimum. Inland wind damage is another story. Lots of tree damage and power outages on tap. I was just checking the area likely to get the largest surge on google maps. This has to be the least developed coastal area on the entire east/gulf coast. For once we get to watch a storm explode and not feel that back of the mind guilt about loss of life. Even inland it’s going to pass between Tallahassee and Gainesville. It wouldn’t surprise me if monetary losses are larger in the Carolina’s then Florida with this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 12z too now You're not kidding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Apologies to that one dude whom I triggered, but here is my Final Call....feel free to not read or look because I am insignificant. Major Hurricane Strike on Florida Panhandle Expected Wednesday | Eastern Mass Weather 12 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Tornado Warning FLC021-291615- /O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0017.230829T1547Z-230829T1615Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Miami FL 1147 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Collier County in southwestern Florida... * Until 1215 PM EDT. * At 1146 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a waterspout located 11 miles south of Cape Romano, or 17 miles south of Marco Island, moving north at 40 to 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Marco Island, Cape Romano, Key Marco and Goodland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 2598 8184 2600 8162 2581 8159 2581 8161 2578 8165 2578 8171 2593 8183 2597 8184 TIME...MOT...LOC 1546Z 163DEG 39KT 2569 8165 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ Baxter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You're not kidding. 12Z HAFS B basically goes right over TLH, landfall on Dog Island/Carrabelle from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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