Hurricane Idalia

[Hotair]

Radio Minas from Pinar Del Rio Cuba is reporting gusts of 73.9 mph and sustained at 56 mph. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

 But unlike for Ian, the GFS isn't 250 miles NW of the UKMET. The model agreement is much better for Idalia.

[Kevin Reilly]

The models all shifting west we saw this last year with Ian then once Ian got into the Gulf everything with each consecutive run kept correcting and coming further and further southeast with a NE trajectory then forced into the coast at Sanibel Island and Fort Myers Beach.  The same thing could happen again but just a bit further north just something to watch.  The same can be said with past hurricanes like Charlie coming from this same general region near western Cuba. 

[cptcatz]

14 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. 

[Floydbuster]

4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. 

Agree. This time it might really go west, but looking on satellite it is difficult to envision. But of course, I can read the model agreement, and it's there.

[Hotair]

Jim Cantore arrived in Gainesville tonight and is headed to Cedar Key.   
 

recall he was at Clearwater Beach last year when Ian made landfall in Ft. Myers 

[Wannabehippie]

New advisory should be out soon, will be interesting to see if they increased the wind speed on it to make it a hurricane.

[Doc Jon]

lightning starting up in the CoC again.  

[TradeWinds]

13 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. 

Don't disagree on current consensus but GFS was not the outlier for Ian. UK and Euro were mostly the outliers. 

[Master of Disaster]

Infrared does show an eye for the first time just north of the tip of Cuba with lightning popping around it.  

[RU848789]

Idalia really looking much healthier over the last several hours - much more concentric convection around the center, as the shear has obviously eased somewhat.  But still a TS...

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Idalia is producing intense bursts of convection near the center,  
with an overall comma-shaped cloud pattern along with a dry slot 
over the western part of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is 
restricted over the northwestern quadrant.  Radar images from 
the Meteorological Service of Cuba show a partial eyewall forming.  
Flight-level and dropwindsonde data from NOAA and Air Force aircraft 
indicate that Idalia is very near hurricane strength.  The maximum 
winds are set again to 60 kt for this advisory.

The system has moved a bit slower than earlier today with an 
initial motion estimate of just slightly east of due north at 
around 7 kt.  Idalia should be steered northward along the western 
side of a mid-level ridge and then turn north-northeastward due to 
a trough to its northwest.  This track will take the center across 
the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday morning, and over 
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia thereafter.  In 2 to 3 
days, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the eastern U.S. coast 
will likely cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward to 
eastward off the coast of the Carolinas.  The official track 
forecast for this advisory is essentially the same as the previous 
one.  This is near the middle of the track guidance, which are 
fairly tightly clustered, with the GFS on the left side and the 
ECMWF on the right side.

Although Idalia is currently experiencing some moderate 
northwesterly vertical wind shear, the dynamical guidance indicates 
that the shear will lessen while the system is over the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico.  This, along with a conducive thermodynamic 
atmospheric environment and high oceanic heat content, should cause 
Idalia to strengthen rapidly in the 12- to 36-hour time frame.  The 
official intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows the system 
becoming a major hurricane before landfall along the Florida Gulf 
coast.  This is in general agreement with the regional hurricane 
hurricane models, HAFS and HWRF, but above much of the other
intensity guidance.

Idalia is forecast to move into an area that is highly susceptible 
to storm surge, and regardless of the cyclone's specific landfall 
intensity, there is increasing confidence that a significant storm 
surge event will occur.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River.  Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across 
portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban 
flooding as well as landslides.  Areas of flash and urban flooding, 
some of which may be locally significant, are expected across 
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and 
southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of 
the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 22.0N  85.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 23.7N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 26.2N  84.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 29.0N  83.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 31.5N  81.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 60H  31/1200Z 33.2N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  01/0000Z 34.0N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 33.5N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 

 

[ROOSTA]

Key West Radar. 
Let the watch begin. To pick-up echos from that distance...spinning like a mofo at what maybe 40-50k. 
The obligatory
"BOMBS AWAY" 

[Floydbuster]

Visually it reminds me so much of Irene in October 1999. 

I remember the original forecasts and the models kept showing west and eventually, Irene just dragged more and more east.

 

I think that's why my visual take on Idalia is giving me a memory back to tracks similar to Irene 1999, where the storm sort of drags eastward.

[Floydbuster]

[beanskip]

Is there some empirical data to support all of these anecdotes about past Gulf storms that ended up east of model projections? If that were a thing, wouldn't there be a study of it or something? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just checking in and looking for a quick answer 
 

Is the system still tilted 

[Chinook]

GFS 250mb winds (barbs) 250mb height (just the colors, that's pretty much all red) and MSLP (black contours)

[turtlehurricane]

We had some decent flooding rains in Miami today on the outer-edges of Idalia.

I think the coming day could be very interesting as the Hurricane makes its closest approach, probably will get alot of strong rain bands across all of Southeast Florida. The WPC forecast via the NHC says 2-4 inches of rain are coming, and NHC says we should see 35 mph gusts during the height of it.... it's just enough that they've been issuing Hurricane Local Statements for the area.

Anyone else noticing the trend that's developed, with Idalia circling back and then hitting South Florida from the east in about a week https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2023082818&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

This happened once before in my life with another TC that I don't remember off the top of my head, and it'll probably be a weak tropical storm at that point, if it happens at all.

[so_whats_happening]

12 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Is there some empirical data to support all of these anecdotes about past Gulf storms that ended up east of model projections? If that were a thing, wouldn't there be a study of it or something? 

Interaction with land mass will pull the system east or west depending on which side of the storm it is on. In this case Florida should help aid in pulling this further east in time just like it has done with past systems. Ian was an example as most models did have it near Tampa area until it wasn't. This should be the case again where we see probably some of the western most extent currently and then it slide east as we go through time. How much of the big bend gets involved how far north of Tampa it actually hits will all have to be figured out in the next day or so once we get away from land interaction around Cuba.

[NeffsvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

We had some decent flooding rains in Miami today on the outer-edges of Idalia.

I think the coming day could be very interesting as the Hurricane makes its closest approach, probably will get alot of strong rain bands across all of Southeast Florida. The WPC forecast via the NHC says 2-4 inches of rain are coming, and NHC says we should see 35 mph gusts during the height of it.... it's just enough that they've been issuing Hurricane Local Statements for the area.

Anyone else noticing the trend that's developed, with Idalia circling back and then hitting South Florida from the east in about a week https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2023082818&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

This happened once before in my life with another TC that I don't remember off the top of my head, and it'll probably be a weak tropical storm at that point, if it happens at all.

got some rain up here in Melbourne as well. And the local statements with bonus TS watch. Not really expecting anything more than a breezy, rainy day.

[Rtd208]

 

[Blizzard22]

Is it just me or are some of the models starting to show it a bit further west ?

[TPAwx]

GFS has landfall near Dog Island Wednesday morning

[beanskip]

WEST WEST WEST

0z GFS stays west with landfall near Alligator Point.

0z CMC makes huge jump west -- almost 100 miles -- and now is all the way over to St. Marks!

 

[Nibor]

Structure continuing to come together.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, TradeWinds said:

Don't disagree on current consensus but GFS was not the outlier for Ian. UK and Euro were mostly the outliers. 

0Z 9/26/22 runs: (Ian made landfall Port Charlotte area at 13Z on 9/28/22)

ICON Venice
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Cedar Key
UKMET Port Charlotte

[Amped]

19 minutes ago, beanskip said:

WEST WEST WEST

0z GFS stays west with landfall near Alligator Point.

0z CMC makes huge jump west -- almost 100 miles -- and now is all the way over to St. Marks!

 

The CMC has more ridging off the SE coast and doesn't dig the troff in the NE nearly as much.   I understand why it shifted west of it's 12z run.  The GFS on the other hand, just randomly decided to take it west of 18z for no apparent reason

[Amped]

Latest image 12:10 EDT

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Agree. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Interaction with land mass will pull the system east or west depending on which side of the storm it is on. In this case Florida should help aid in pulling this further east in time just like it has done with past systems. Ian was an example as most models did have it near Tampa area until it wasn't. This should be the case again where we see probably some of the western most extent currently and then it slide east as we go through time. How much of the big bend gets involved how far north of Tampa it actually hits will all have to be figured out in the next day or so once we get away from land interaction around Cuba.

Can you elaborate on the physics of why a cyclone would be pulled east, relative to track forecasts, while approaching the west coast of FL?  Obviously the track moved east relative to the forecast track with Ian, especially in the last 1-2 days before landfall (which is where we are now), but one could imagine many reasons for such shifts.  Thanks.