Hurricane Idalia

[BYG Jacob]

15 minutes ago, Hotair said:

970s? Was this validated ? Wow was in the 990s less than an hour ago.

Hard to say, that measurement isn't from the eye or CoC. It could very likely be lower, I don't think we'll get a definitive answer until the storm pulls away from Cuba

[Hotair]

There’s lots of chatter now that latest models have shifted LF guidance about 30 miles West.  But didn’t these runs initialize with a 20 to 30 mile westerly offset ? 

[Looking to the skies]

Eye trying

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Hotair said:

970s? Was this validated ? Wow was in the 990s less than an hour ago.

IR was expected tonight. 

[CoastalWx]

Still lopsided on satellite. I’d like to see the shear relax some more.

[TradeWinds]

6 minutes ago, Hotair said:

There’s lots of chatter now that latest models have shifted LF guidance about 30 miles West.  But didn’t these runs initialize with a 20 to 30 mile westerly offset ? 

Looks like tighter clusters mostly but many of the more western tracks show the cane moving NNW starting now or even should have by now. Time will tell. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still lopsided on satellite. I’d like to see the shear relax some more.

Once it clears Cuba that should happen, but it's definitely lopsided and that column is not quite vertical yet.

[Windspeed]

Wow, the recent convective burst over the past hour is just nuts! It's one of the more explosive ones I can recall. Uncertain if perhaps a little terrain / frictional influenced. No surprise at the resulting pressure drop regardless.

[Hotair]

Operator on ham radio saying heavy rain, lightning and 50 mph gusts also some flooding in Pinar Del Rio Cuba. Power is off.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Once it clears Cuba that should happen, but it's definitely lopsided and that column is not quite vertical yet.

It’s trying. 

[Eskimo Joe]

From a WPC met

 

 

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, Hotair said:

You are absolutely correct.  I stand corrected.  

But your point is still a good one. No major in that region in 73 years means increased vulnerability if a major were to hit there.

[Amped]

The center may have wobbled or reformed a little to the southeast judging by both radar and recon obs.  

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s trying. 

Indeed, finally seeing a consistent burst of deep convection and it appears that deep convection is wrapping the core now. Marketable improvements upshear, I suspect what is happening now is that column is trying to get vertical which should happen very soon, once it clears Cuba.

IMO...the environment ahead is the best environment an Atlantic tropical system has had since Michael. All systems are go, once it clears Cuba, for RI. Some indication I seen in previous runs of the COAMPS that suggests a potential period of explosive intensification once it gets over the loop current tomorrow afternoon.

[MANDA]

From the looks of things Idalia is getting ready to launch.  Satellite and radar looking quite impressive.  Idalia is just getting ready to cross into the southern GOM.  I said about 36 hours ago if she can have a core established by that time the stronger solutions will play out.  Looks to be entering the GOM as an intensifying Tropical Cyclone.  Once she center clears western Cuba I think we are going to be in for a show.  Also, IMO I think the nudges westward in the track guidance are over.  Looking at WV loop the small upper low over the FL Panhandle is moving east and lifting out.  Idalia should follow in that general direction as upper trof dropping through the GL/Upper Ohio Valley eventually takes over the shunts her east off SC/NC coast.  Landfall I believe is 25 miles either side of Cedar Key.  No doubt in my mind though that the lid is going to come off the pot soon.

[Kevin Reilly]

34 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I see some limiting factors on the water vapor map dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south.  I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. 

[Hotair]

Cuban Radar

[1234snow]

Is that the LLC going over the western tip of Cuba or the MLC?

[Floydbuster]

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south.  I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. 

Thinking along same lines on possible adjustment to the right in track and for the same reason you mentioned, though not thinking as far to the right as Sarasota.  Pine Island maybe?  IMO not concerned about any dry air, atmosphere looks moist ahead (especially if track is more to the right) and if there is some dry air entrained from the SW it should be able to get mixed out quickly with increasingly favorable jet divergence aloft.

[Looking to the skies]

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

That Low is not coming that far S

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

Very much agree!

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

The question is does it miss the trough... As it strengthens and remains in weak steering currents... I would think that this is a real possibility. 

[Hotair]

Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently.  I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee 

[USCG RS]

Just now, Hotair said:

Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently.  I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee 

I see you are in Tampa. I would personally prepare for the worst and make plans in case it looks like you need to move further inland. While I personally do not believe this will be the case, it would be foolish -in my opinion- not to be ready in case something like this took place. 

One just need remember Charley in 2004. 

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently.  I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee 

And should stay that way, particularly near landfall when sw shear picks up. Saw mention of potential for halfcane or oddly shaped presentation.

[Floydbuster]

5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

The question is does it miss the trough... As it strengthens and remains in weak steering currents... I would think that this is a real possibility. 

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

[Hotair]

[beanskip]

Meanwhile the 0z NAM is all the way over to Apalachicola about 100 miles west of its 18z run.

Crappy model? Yes.

Umpteenth west trend today. Yes, too. 

[Seminole]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Seems to be the case more often than not.