Hurricane Idalia

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. For anyone more than 2-3 miles inland this will most likely be no worse than multiple storms we have had already this year. Everything points to this going further north


.

This is about as bad a mentality to have at the threat of a major hurricane as could probably exist. 

[Hotair]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

This is about as bad a mentality to have at the threat of a major hurricane as could probably exist. 

Exactly.  People listening to tonight’s evening news trying to decide if they should follow evac orders certainly got a mixed message from the Mets here.  

[Hotair]

I’m aware of the Tampa bubble which has evaded hurricane landfalls in the region for many decades.   I was not aware until tonight that the last major hurricane to hit the Big Bend was back in 1896!   If Idalia slams into the region as a Cat 3 or 4 it will be the first time most of the current structures in that area get tested by a proper storm 

[MattPetrulli]

22 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Again, am I missing something here?

Nah that initialization is pretty fine. It isn't gonna be perfect but that is definitely a good initialization.

[BooneWX]

Looking upstream - If it stays on this path, I imagine coastal Georgia can anticipate significant impacts from surge. 

[buckeyefan1]

Someone please start a banter thread to keep this one on topic 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Someone please start a banter thread to keep this one on topic 

Done, just created it.

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Done, just created it.

Thank you    

Ladies and gentlemen, please keep the banter where it belongs. Now, back to your regular scheduled program    

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, Hotair said:

Found 983 mb on latest dropsonde   Idalia may get a promotion as soon as the 8 pm advisory. 

Still a TS on latest advisory. 7pm CDT.

[Prospero]

1 hour ago, dbullsfan said:

Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all.

If it rains, we'll have a hurricane! LOL

[Floydbuster]

6 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Still a TS on latest advisory. 7pm CDT.

As mentioned yesterday, like Isidore 2002, Idalia is likely to have lower-than-normal pressure. Even if Idalia peaks at 120 mph, I'd expect a pressure in the 930s-940mb range.

[Amped]

Appears like a possible definitive center is trying to form near the western tip of Cuba on radar.

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, dbullsfan said:

Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. 

.

Surge is what kills the majority of persons in Hurricanes 

[BYG Jacob]

1 hour ago, dbullsfan said:

Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. For anyone more than 2-3 miles inland this will most likely be no worse than multiple storms we have had already this year. Everything points to this going further north


.

Just the two most important factors that determine how bad a hurricane is.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Hotair said:

I’m aware of the Tampa bubble which has evaded hurricane landfalls in the region for many decades.   I was not aware until tonight that the last major hurricane to hit the Big Bend was back in 1896!   If Idalia slams into the region as a Cat 3 or 4 it will be the first time most of the current structures in that area get tested by a proper storm 

 You may be forgetting Easy of 1950, which hit Cedar Key as a cat 3.

[purduewx80]

17 minutes ago, Amped said:

Appears like a possible definitive center is trying to form near the western tip of Cuba on radar.

[beanskip]

Uh oh -- pretty sizeable westward jog of the 18z Euro vs. the 12z run.

[USCG RS]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not in the EM workspace, but having a patchwork county evacuation scenario like that is confusing.

I am. You're right. 

7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

TPA airport closing tomorrow seems a bit premature to me

Regarding the EM Workspace, there is a rationale behind it, although it might be a bit premature.

--) To begin with, there are specific operations that need to be gradually discontinued. These winding-down operations do take time, but they also allow for the minimal required personnel to be present.

--) Airlines can ensure that none of their aircraft get stranded there if developments unfold rapidly.

--) This approach reduces the risk of individuals being trapped and guarantees that if the situation takes a negative turn, there won't be a last-minute rush at the airport, which could lead to people being caught there as the storm approaches.

--) It enables the airport to swiftly open up for emergency operations and planning.

--) Let's not overlook the matter of liability...

[beanskip]

8 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Uh oh -- pretty sizeable westward jog of the 18z Euro vs. the 12z run.

For Tallahassee/St. Marks/Apalachicola Bay, this is is a huge shift, more in line with the hurricane models and GFS. Another move or two like this and that area moves from the left to right side (or straight shot) of the storm. Night and day difference. The west trend has been clear all day -- I guess if it isn't going to hit Tampa Bay it must be fake news ... whatever. 

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like a pair of rotating hot towers on the last couple of IR frames. One of them rotating through the shear vector. Might be time to head to the happening bunker.

[Nibor]

Radar from Mexico also shows what looks like wrapping around the center.

[dan11295]

In general there was an overall westward shift in the models at 18z. Obviously better for Tampa. As mentioned above, won't take much more of shift to be a major problem for Apalacheee Bay and Tallahassee. Even though TLH is inland, Idalia will be moving quick and that area hasn't seen the core of a strong hurricane in a very long time.

[Hotair]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 You may be forgetting Easy of 1950, which hit Cedar Key as a cat 3.

You are absolutely correct.  I stand corrected.  

[Kevin Reilly]

17 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

That's a very tight circulation!!!  Once that wraps around the center and gets say 40 miles north of the Western Tip of Cuba this is going to take off!!  I have not yet looked at water vapor map the only limiting factor could be dry air on the west and northwest side if it is there. 

[beanskip]

4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

In general there was an overall westward shift in the models at 18z. Obviously better for Tampa. As mentioned above, won't take much more of shift to be a major problem for Apalacheee Bay and Tallahassee. Even though TLH is inland, Idalia will be moving quick and that area hasn't seen the core of a strong hurricane in a very long time.

Yeah, Hermine was barely a Cat 1 and shut down Tallahassee for a week. Something like this would be beyond catastrophic given the pervasive tree canopy. 

[BYG Jacob]

Pressure dropping like a rock

[Nibor]

[NavarreDon]

Pressure dropping like a rock

Recon data certainly suggests we have a cane imo.


.

[Hotair]

1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said:

Pressure dropping like a rock

970s? Was this validated ? Wow was in the 990s less than an hour ago.

[NeffsvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Pressure dropping like a rock

 

And -10 mb from model guidance assuming 979 is accurate.

Edit: not sure if I believe it. NOAA marked the eye an hour ago at 988. Wilma has the record for pressure frop @ -4.2 mb per hour. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say either this is unprecedented or the data is invalid. Because it's not even in the eye so one would expect the pressure to be even lower.